Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State Cardinals Football Game Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Game Information

• Matchup: Sacramento State Hornets (1-6, 0-4 MAC) at Ball State Cardinals (2-5, 1-2 MAC)
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
• Location: Scheumann Stadium — Muncie, Indiana
• TV/Streaming: ESPN+
• Tickets: As low as $40
• Betting Line: Ball State -14
• Over/Under: 51.5 points
• Conference: Mid-American Conference
• Special Event: Ball State’s 100th Homecoming Celebration

Sacramento State vs. Ball State Prediction & Matchup Preview

Ball State welcomes Sacramento State to Scheumann Stadium Saturday afternoon looking to build momentum following an exciting 32-31 overtime victory against Bowling Green.

The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing streak and earned their first MAC victory of the season. Quarterback Keldric Luster delivered an impressive performance, producing 320 combined passing and rushing yards.

Sacramento State enters struggling through its first MAC campaign. The Hornets have lost five consecutive games, including a disappointing 48-7 defeat against Ohio.

The Hornets have struggled offensively, scoring 10 or fewer points in five games this season. Their defense has also surrendered at least 31 points in five contests.

Ball State has defensive concerns of its own, allowing 37.9 points per game. However, Sacramento State’s struggling offense presents an opportunity for the Cardinals to build confidence.

With Ball State celebrating its 100th Homecoming, expect an energized atmosphere and a motivated Cardinals team.

Players to Watch

Sacramento State Hornets

Jackson Sharman — Quarterback

Sharman has thrown for more than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns this season. However, turnovers and inconsistent protection remain concerns. Brian Salazar Jr. also saw action against Ohio.

Matt Coleman — Wide Receiver

Coleman leads Sacramento State’s receiving attack with more than 450 yards and four touchdowns. His explosive playmaking gives the Hornets their best opportunity to challenge Ball State’s secondary.

Isaiah Ene — Running Back

Ene rushed for 59 yards against Ohio and remains an important part of Sacramento State’s ground attack.

Ball State Cardinals

Keldric Luster — Quarterback

Luster completed 16 of 24 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown against Bowling Green while rushing for a career-high 125 yards and another score.

TJ Horton — Running Back

Horton rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns against Bowling Green. His physical running style makes him particularly dangerous near the goal line.

CJ Nelson — Wide Receiver

Nelson caught six passes for 59 yards against Bowling Green, giving Luster another dependable receiving option.

Keys to the Game

Sacramento State Keys to Victory

1. Protect the football. Sacramento State enters with a minus-11 turnover margin. Eliminating mistakes is essential.

2. Establish the run. Ene must help create manageable third-down situations.

3. Challenge Ball State’s secondary. The Cardinals allow 243.7 passing yards per game, presenting opportunities for Coleman.

Ball State Keys to Victory

1. Feature Luster’s mobility. His rushing ability creates problems for opposing defenses.

2. Establish Horton. A productive running game will help control possession.

3. Pressure Sacramento State’s quarterbacks. Forcing hurried throws could produce turnovers and favorable field position.

4. Start fast. Ball State should capitalize on its Homecoming crowd and avoid letting Sacramento State gain confidence.

Betting Prediction

Point Spread: Ball State -14

Ball State possesses the more productive offense and enters with momentum following its victory over Bowling Green.

Sacramento State’s offensive inconsistency and turnover problems make overcoming a substantial deficit difficult.

Betting Pick: Ball State -14

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

Sacramento State has struggled to score consistently. Ball State should produce points, but extended rushing possessions could limit the total.

Betting Pick: Under 51.5 Points

Four Prop Bets to Consider

College player-prop availability varies by sportsbook, so these are target numbers to consider if offered near these ranges.

Prop Bet #1: Keldric Luster Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Luster Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

• 125 Yards vs Bowling Green
• 1 Rushing TD
• Sacramento State Allowed 265 Rushing Yards vs Ohio

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Luster rushed for 125 yards against Bowling Green, demonstrating his dual-threat ability.

Sacramento State allowed 265 rushing yards against Ohio, creating another favorable matchup for Ball State’s quarterback.

Prediction: Keldric Luster — 58 rushing yards

Prop Bet #2: TJ Horton Anytime Touchdown

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Horton Anytime Touchdown

• 2 TDs vs Bowling Green
• 81 Rushing Yards
• 7 Rushing TDs This Season

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Horton scored twice against Bowling Green, including the crucial overtime touchdown.

Sacramento State’s difficulty stopping rushing attacks should create additional red-zone opportunities.

Prediction: TJ Horton — 1 rushing touchdown

Prop Bet #3: CJ Nelson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Nelson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

• 6 Catches vs Bowling Green
• 59 Receiving Yards
• 195 Team Passing Yards

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Nelson caught six passes for 59 yards against Bowling Green.

His growing connection with Luster makes him an attractive receiving option against Sacramento State.

Prediction: CJ Nelson — 54 receiving yards

Prop Bet #4: Matt Coleman Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Coleman Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

• 450+ Season Receiving Yards
• 4 Receiving TDs
• Ball State Allows 243.7 Passing Yards Per Game

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Coleman has been Sacramento State’s most productive receiver, including a 55-yard touchdown against Bowling Green.

Ball State’s vulnerable pass defense should create opportunities, although Sacramento State’s quarterback uncertainty adds risk.

Prediction: Matt Coleman — 61 receiving yards

The Verdict

Ball State enters with greater offensive momentum and the advantage of playing at home.

Sacramento State’s turnover problems and limited scoring production make a road upset unlikely.

Expect Luster and Horton to control the rushing attack while Ball State’s defense forces critical mistakes.

Final Score Prediction

Ball State Cardinals 34, Sacramento State Hornets 13

Ball State’s offensive balance and Homecoming atmosphere should produce a convincing victory.

Predicted Winner: Ball State

Against the Spread: Ball State -14

Over/Under: Under 51.5 Points

Betting Picks Summary

Betting Market Prediction Point Spread Ball State -14 Over/Under Under 51.5 Moneyline Ball State

Prop Bet #1 Luster Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #2 Horton Anytime Touchdown

Prop Bet #3 Nelson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #4 Coleman Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Final Prediction: Ball State 34, Sacramento State 13

Player-prop thresholds are projected targets, not confirmed sportsbook lines. Verify player availability and betting markets before wagering.