No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

No. 5 Ohio State travels to Kinnick Stadium Saturday afternoon for a major Big Ten showdown against unbeaten No. 14 Iowa.

Ohio State enters 3-1 overall and 1-0 in the Big Ten, while Iowa is 4-0 and 1-0 after a dramatic 20-19 victory at Michigan. The latest AP Top 25 moved Ohio State to No. 5 and Iowa to No. 14.

The Buckeyes are 13.5-point road favorites, but Kinnick Stadium has produced problems for highly ranked Ohio State teams before, including Iowa’s memorable 55-24 upset in 2017.

Game Information

Matchup: No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET TV: CBS Venue: Kinnick Stadium — Iowa City, Iowa Tickets: As low as $266 Point Spread: Ohio State -13.5 Over/Under: 45.5

Ohio State leads the all-time series 48-15-3 and has won the last two meetings, including a 35-7 victory in 2024.

Ohio State: Sayin and Smith Power Explosive Attack

Ohio State responded to its one-point loss at Texas by winning consecutive games over Kent State and Illinois.

The Buckeyes defeated Illinois 42-19, producing 518 total yards. Quarterback Julian Sayin completed 27 of 36 passes for 367 yards and four touchdowns.

Sayin has been outstanding through four games, completing 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards, 10 touchdowns and only one interception.

His biggest weapon is Jeremiah Smith.

Smith enters Saturday with 33 receptions for 617 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging an explosive 18.7 yards per reception. He delivered a spectacular performance against Illinois with 12 catches, 217 yards and four touchdowns.

Ohio State also has balance. Bo Jackson has rushed for 283 yards at 5.7 yards per carry, while Ja’Kobi Jackson has added 206 yards and five touchdowns.

Iowa: Defense, Toughness and Late-Game Execution

Iowa enters undefeated after one of the biggest victories of the young season.

The Hawkeyes went into Michigan Stadium and defeated No. 18 Michigan 20-19 when Hank Brown found Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdown on the final play.

Brown finished with 227 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Vander Zee caught five passes for 66 yards and both scores.

Iowa’s defense has been its foundation. The Hawkeyes have surrendered only 32 points through four games, an average of eight points per contest. Ohio State has scored 180 points through four games, or 45 per game.

The concern is whether Iowa can produce enough offense.

Michigan outgained the Hawkeyes 429-285, and Iowa managed only 58 rushing yards.

That kind of offensive output may not be enough against Ohio State.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

College player-prop availability varies by sportsbook, so these are target numbers to consider if offered near these ranges.

Prop Bet #1: Julian Sayin Over 254.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Sayin Over 254.5 Passing Yards

• 301.5 Yards Per Game
• 367 Yards vs Illinois
• 10 TDs This Season

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Sayin is averaging 301.5 passing yards per game and is coming off a 367-yard performance.

Iowa’s defense presents his toughest challenge since Texas, but Ohio State has too much receiving talent to completely abandon the passing attack.

Prediction: Julian Sayin — 278 passing yards

Prop Bet #2: Jeremiah Smith Over 88.5 Receiving Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Smith Over 88.5 Receiving Yards

• 617 Yards This Season
• 217 Yards vs Illinois
• 18.7 Yards Per Catch

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Smith is averaging more than 154 receiving yards per game.

His combination of size, speed and big-play ability makes him difficult to completely remove from any game plan.

Iowa should provide extra defensive attention, but Smith doesn’t need another 200-yard game to clear this number.

Prediction: Jeremiah Smith — 104 receiving yards

Prop Bet #3: Hank Brown Under 189.5 Passing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Brown Under 189.5 Passing Yards

• Ohio State Pass Defense
• Iowa Wants Ball Control
• Buckeyes Allow Few Explosive Plays

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Brown delivered when Iowa needed him at Michigan, but Ohio State represents another major step up defensively.

The Buckeyes have allowed only 641 passing yards through four games while opposing quarterbacks are completing just 54.1 percent of their attempts.

Iowa would prefer a low-possession game built around defense and field position.

Prediction: Hank Brown — 176 passing yards

Prop Bet #4: Bo Jackson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Bo Jackson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

• 283 Rush Yards
• 5.7 Yards Per Carry
• Ohio State Needs Offensive Balance

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Jackson leads Ohio State with 283 rushing yards.

Against Iowa’s secondary, Ohio State may emphasize balance rather than asking Sayin to throw on every critical down.

A consistent running game would also keep Iowa’s defense on the field.

Prediction: Bo Jackson — 68 rushing yards

Players to Watch

Julian Sayin — Ohio State

Sayin’s efficiency has been remarkable. His ability to protect the football while creating explosive plays will be tested by an experienced Iowa defense.

Jeremiah Smith — Ohio State

Smith may be the most dangerous player on the field. Iowa must prevent him from generating the type of explosive touchdowns that changed the Illinois game.

Hank Brown — Iowa

Brown showed tremendous composure on Iowa’s game-winning 91-yard drive at Michigan. He will need another disciplined performance against the Buckeyes.

Reece Vander Zee — Iowa

After catching both Iowa touchdowns at Michigan, Vander Zee has emerged as Brown’s key target in critical situations.

Keys to the Game

Ohio State must remain patient against Iowa’s defense. Kinnick Stadium can become dangerous if turnovers and special-teams mistakes allow the Hawkeyes to play with a short field.

Iowa needs to establish the run, shorten the game and prevent Ohio State from creating explosive passing plays.

The Hawkeyes also cannot settle for field goals if they reach the red zone. Ohio State simply has more offensive firepower.

Betting Prediction

Iowa’s defense and home-field advantage make laying nearly two touchdowns uncomfortable.

But Ohio State has significant advantages offensively.

Sayin and Smith give the Buckeyes a passing combination Iowa has not faced this season, while Ohio State’s defense should make it difficult for the Hawkeyes to sustain long drives.

The 45.5 total also points toward another defensive-oriented Iowa game.

The Verdict

Iowa keeps the game competitive early with defense, field position and the Kinnick Stadium crowd.

Eventually, however, Ohio State’s offensive talent creates separation.

Smith produces another big play, Sayin avoids the costly turnover, and the Buckeyes defense prevents Iowa from keeping pace.

Final Score Prediction

Ohio State 31, Iowa 14

Betting Category Pick Best Bet Jeremiah Smith Over 88.5 Receiving Yards Against the Spread Ohio State -13.5 Moneyline Ohio State Over/Under Under 45.5 Top Prop Julian Sayin Over 254.5 Passing Yards

Final Prediction: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14

Ohio State hands Iowa its first loss, covers the 13.5-point spread and keeps the game narrowly under the 45.5-point total.