Bowling Green at Miami (OH) 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Bowling Green travels to Oxford on Saturday afternoon to face Miami (OH) in the Mid-American Conference opener for both programs at Yager Stadium.

Miami enters 2-2 after rallying from a 14-point deficit to defeat UConn 24-21 on Homecoming weekend. Bowling Green remains 0-4, although the Falcons showed significant defensive improvement in a 14-6 loss to previously unbeaten South Florida.

Miami enters as a 13.5-point home favorite, with the low 42.5 total reflecting Bowling Green’s offensive struggles through September.

Game Information

Matchup: Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026 Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET TV: ESPN+ Venue: Yager Stadium — Oxford, Ohio Tickets: As low as $33 Point Spread: Miami (OH) -13.5 Over/Under: 42.5

Miami leads the all-time series 48-25-5 and has won the last two meetings. The RedHawks shut out Bowling Green 27-0 the last time the Falcons visited Oxford in 2023.

Miami (OH): McComb Giving RedHawks an Explosive Passing Attack

Miami’s offense has become increasingly dangerous behind quarterback David McComb.

McComb threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns against UConn, completing 19 of 29 passes without an interception. He also rushed for a touchdown as Miami erased an early 14-0 deficit.

Through four games, McComb has thrown for more than 1,100 yards with seven touchdown passes and only one interception.

The RedHawks have also demonstrated big-play ability. Brendan Loftus caught three passes for 72 yards against UConn, including a 57-yard touchdown that tied the game before halftime. Scoop Smith added six receptions and his first career receiving touchdown.

Miami has scored 45 points against Holy Cross, 31 against Cincinnati and 24 against UConn over its last three games.

Against a Bowling Green team allowing more than 36 points per game, Miami should have opportunities.

Bowling Green: Defense Improving, Offense Still Searching

Bowling Green’s record is ugly, but its latest performance offered some encouragement.

After allowing 56 points to Nebraska and 55 to Iowa State, the Falcons held South Florida to only 14 points.

The problem was offense.

Bowling Green managed only 207 total yards and six points against USF. Quarterback Jay Kastantin threw for 122 yards, while Austyn Dendy rushed 18 times for 48 yards.

Winn Sharp was the most productive receiver with five catches for 56 yards.

Bowling Green has scored only 33 total points through four games, an average of 8.25 per contest. The Falcons have failed to score more than 13 points in any game.

That lack of offensive production is a serious concern against a Miami team capable of creating explosive plays through the air.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

College player-prop availability varies by sportsbook, so these are target numbers to consider if offered near these ranges.

Prop Bet #1: David McComb Over 249.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: McComb Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• 312 Yards vs UConn
• 1,100+ Yards This Season
• 7 TD Passes

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McComb is averaging approximately 280 passing yards per game through four contests.

He threw for 334 yards against Cincinnati before following with 312 against UConn.

Bowling Green played better defensively against South Florida, but Miami’s willingness to attack vertically creates a favorable opportunity for McComb.

Prediction: David McComb — 287 passing yards

Prop Bet #2: Miami (OH) Over 27.5 Team Points

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Miami Over 27.5 Team Points

• 28.5 Points Per Game
• 45 vs Holy Cross
• Bowling Green Allows 36.3 PPG

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Miami is averaging 28.5 points per game, while Bowling Green has surrendered 145 points through four contests.

The Falcons were much better defensively against South Florida, but Miami has a more productive passing game and the home-field advantage.

Three touchdowns and a couple of field goals would clear this number.

Prediction: Miami (OH) — 31 points

Prop Bet #3: Brendan Loftus Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Loftus Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

• 72 Yards vs UConn
• 57-Yard TD Last Game
• McComb Passing Game Rolling

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Loftus demonstrated his big-play ability against UConn.

His 57-yard touchdown was one of the game’s biggest plays, and McComb continues to spread the football effectively.

Loftus doesn’t need heavy reception volume to surpass this target if he creates another explosive play.

Prediction: Brendan Loftus — 61 receiving yards

Prop Bet #4: Bowling Green Under 13.5 Team Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Bowling Green Under 13.5 Team Points

• 8.3 Points Per Game
• 6 Points Last Week
• No Game Above 13 Points

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Bowling Green has scored 13, 7, 7 and 6 points through its first four games.

The Falcons struggled to create explosive plays against South Florida and averaged only 2.6 yards per rush.

Miami’s defense allowed 21 points against UConn but shut out the Huskies in the fourth quarter and produced the late interception that helped set up the winning field goal.

Prediction: Bowling Green — 13 points

Players to Watch

David McComb — Miami

McComb has emerged as the biggest difference-maker in this matchup. His ability to attack vertically gives Miami a major advantage.

Brendan Loftus — Miami

Loftus is coming off a 72-yard performance and provides McComb with a dangerous target down the field.

Austyn Dendy — Bowling Green

Bowling Green needs Dendy to establish the running game. If the Falcons become one-dimensional, Miami can pressure Kastantin.

Winn Sharp — Bowling Green

Sharp led the Falcons with 56 receiving yards against South Florida and could again serve as Kastantin’s safest target.

Keys to the Game

Miami needs to protect McComb and continue creating explosive passing plays. The RedHawks cannot allow Bowling Green’s improved defense to turn this into a low-possession game.

Defensively, Miami should focus on shutting down Dendy and forcing the Falcons into obvious passing situations.

Bowling Green must run effectively, avoid turnovers and keep Miami’s offense on the sideline.

The Falcons also need touchdowns rather than field goals whenever they reach scoring territory.

Betting Prediction

Bowling Green deserves credit for its defensive effort against South Florida, but the offensive numbers remain difficult to ignore.

The Falcons haven’t scored more than 13 points this season.

Miami, meanwhile, has scored at least 24 in three consecutive games and enters with momentum after the comeback victory over UConn.

The 13.5-point spread is significant, but Miami’s advantage at quarterback and its ability to generate explosive passes should eventually create separation.

The 42.5 total leans toward the over only if Miami produces most of the scoring.

The Verdict

Bowling Green keeps the game competitive early by playing disciplined defense, but Miami’s passing attack eventually breaks through.

McComb delivers another productive afternoon, while the RedHawks defense limits Bowling Green’s scoring opportunities.

Final Score Prediction

Miami (OH) 31, Bowling Green 13

Betting Category Pick Best Bet David McComb Over 249.5 Passing Yards Against the Spread Miami (OH) -13.5MoneylineMiami (OH)Over/Under Over 42.5 Top Prop Bowling Green Under 13.5 Team Points

Final Prediction: Miami (OH) 31, Bowling Green 13

Miami opens MAC play with a home victory, covers the 13.5-point spread and pushes the game slightly over the 42.5-point total.