NCAA Week 10 No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

One of the biggest games of the 2026 college football season takes place Saturday night when No. 1 Miami visits No. 4 Notre Dame at Notre Dame Stadium. The Hurricanes will play without leading receiver Malachi Toney, who injured his ankle in Wednesday’s practice and will miss the game, according to multiple reports. The rankings here are from the AP poll. Notre Dame is No. 11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

Miami enters 8–0 after surviving North Carolina 38–35, while Notre Dame improved to 7–1 with a 35–13 victory over Navy. The matchup carries College Football Playoff implications and renews one of college football’s most recognizable intersectional rivalries. Miami beat Notre Dame 27–24 last season, while the Fighting Irish lead the all-time series 18–8–1.

Game Information

Matchup No. 1 Miami Hurricanes at No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Date Saturday, November 7, 2026 Kickoff 7:30 p.m. ET TVNBC / Peacock Venue Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana Tickets As low as $710Point spread used for this preview Notre Dame −6 Over/Under57.5

The Notre Dame −6 spread requires the Fighting Irish to win by seven or more to cover. A six-point Notre Dame victory is a push. Miami +6 covers if the Hurricanes win outright or lose by five or fewer.

Miami: Darian Mensah Must Adjust Without Malachi Toney

Miami’s unbeaten season has been powered by one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. Quarterback Darian Mensah entered the North Carolina game having completed 81.4 percent of his passes for 2,151 yards, 22 touchdowns and one interception through seven games. He then went 22 of 29 for 274 yards and three touchdowns against the Tar Heels.

The challenge is replacing what Toney gave Mensah on the downs that decide games. Toney leads Miami with 73 catches, 1,027 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. He accounted for two of Mensah’s three touchdown passes against North Carolina. Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw are two receivers to watch as Miami redistributes those targets. The Irish can make that adjustment harder by disrupting routes early and forcing Mensah to hold the ball.

Mark Fletcher Jr. gives Miami another way to move the chains. He scored three times against North Carolina, including on a 31-yard reception, and reached 38 career touchdowns. Miami can use him on early downs and as a short outlet when Notre Dame takes away the first read. That could help the Hurricanes avoid the long third downs where Toney’s absence will be felt most.

Miami’s defense also has to do its part. North Carolina scored 35 points and repeatedly found openings through the air. If the Hurricanes give up another string of explosive plays, Mensah could spend the second half chasing points without his most productive receiver.

Notre Dame: Defense and Running Game Set the Tone

Notre Dame responded to its loss at BYU with a 35–13 victory over Navy, holding the Midshipmen to 56 yards and zero third-down conversions after halftime. The Irish entered the BYU matchup leading the nation in total defense at 214.2 yards allowed per game and giving up only 11 points per contest.

Mensah still presents a difficult test. With Toney sidelined, Notre Dame can spread its coverage attention across Miami’s other receivers and make the Hurricanes prove they can sustain drives. The opportunity for the Irish is to tackle well underneath and put Miami behind schedule.

On offense, quarterback CJ Carr completed 70.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception through his first six games. Nolan James Jr. ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries against Navy and has scored in every Notre Dame game this season. If the Irish can stay ahead of the chains with James, Carr can use play-action against a Miami secondary that had trouble containing North Carolina.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

These are target numbers to consider if available. College player-prop availability varies by sportsbook and jurisdiction.

Prop Bet #1: Darian Mensah Over 249.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Mensah Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• 274 Yards vs UNC
• 387 vs Pittsburgh
• 25 TD Passes Through 8 Games

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Mensah cleared this target against both Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Without Toney, getting there will likely take more completions underneath and more yards after the catch. Miami could also have to throw more often in the second half if Notre Dame plays from ahead. At 249.5, I still lean over, with a smaller cushion than I would have projected with Toney in the lineup.

Prediction: Darian Mensah — 258 passing yards

Prop Bet #2: Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Fletcher Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

• 13 Carries vs UNC
• 2 Rushing TDs vs UNC
• Miami’s Early-Down Option

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Fletcher ran for only 43 yards on 13 carries against North Carolina, so this pick depends on Miami giving him more opportunities. The best case for the over is a close game in which the Hurricanes can stick with the run and avoid asking Mensah to win every early down through the air. Fletcher needs 15 carries at four yards per attempt to clear this target. If Notre Dame builds a two-score lead early, that workload becomes harder to reach.

Prediction: Mark Fletcher Jr. — 66 rushing yards

Prop Bet #3: Nolan James Jr. Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: James Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

• 107 Yards vs Navy
• 2 TDs Last Game
• TD in Every Game

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James needed only nine carries to surpass 100 yards against Navy. Notre Dame should give him enough early-down work to test Miami’s front and keep Mensah off the field. Even if Miami prevents the long runs James had against Navy, steady carries in a close game give him a path over this number.

Prediction: Nolan James Jr. — 83 rushing yards

Prop Bet #4: CJ Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Carr Over 1.5 Passing TDs

• 16 TD Passes Through First 6 Games
• 70.8% Completion Rate
• Miami Allowed 35 to UNC

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Carr’s efficiency gives Notre Dame room to throw near the goal line, particularly off play-action if James is getting consistent yardage. North Carolina exposed openings in Miami’s pass defense, and Carr should get chances to exploit similar space when the Hurricanes bring a safety down to help against the run.

Prediction: CJ Carr — 2 passing touchdowns

Players to Watch

Darian Mensah — Miami. How quickly can he find a second option when Notre Dame takes away his first read? His accuracy gives Miami a chance to string together drives, even if the explosive plays are harder to come by.

Mark Fletcher Jr. — Miami. His early-down rushing and work as a receiver can keep Miami out of obvious passing situations.

CJ Carr — Notre Dame. His best opportunities could come off play-action once Miami commits extra defenders to the run.

Nolan James Jr. — Notre Dame. If James consistently creates chunk runs, Notre Dame can dictate the pace and keep Mensah on the sideline.

Keys to the Game

• Notre Dame must disrupt Mensah’s timing. The Irish can force throws underneath and make Miami earn every first down by tackling well in space.
• Miami has to produce on early downs. Four or five yards from Fletcher or a quick completion can keep Notre Dame from dictating the matchup on third down.
• Miami must contain James. If the Hurricanes can slow him without committing an extra defender to the box, they can make Carr work through tighter passing windows.
• Protect the football. Both quarterbacks have shown they can limit interceptions. A short field off a turnover could decide a game projected to come down to one possession.

Betting Prediction

Notre Dame’s defense, home-field advantage and running game give the Irish the edge. Toney’s absence makes it harder for Miami to generate quick scores, especially if the Hurricanes fall behind and Notre Dame can commit more resources to the pass rush.

I still lean Miami +6 at the number used in this preview. Mensah’s accuracy and Fletcher’s versatility give Miami enough ways to sustain drives and keep the game within one possession. I also lean under 57.5, with Notre Dame able to control stretches of the game on the ground and Miami likely needing longer drives to score.

The Verdict

Miami moves the ball through Mensah and Fletcher, while Notre Dame answers with Carr’s efficiency and a physical ground game. The difference comes late, when the Irish force Miami into a long third down and get the stop they need to protect a narrow lead.

Final Score Prediction

Notre Dame 30, Miami 27

Betting CategoryPickBest BetMiami +6Against the SpreadMiami +6MoneylineNotre DameOver/UnderUnder 57.5Top PropDarian Mensah Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Notre Dame wins by three, Miami +6 covers, and the projected 57 combined points finish just under 57.5.