NCAA Football Week 2: Picking all Games with a Top 25 Team Playing against the Spread

Bowling Green at No. 8 Penn State (-34.5)

After James Franklin’s impressive win against West Virginia in Week 1, this line has increased by 2.5 points from its initial opening point. Bowling Green boasts experienced quarterback Connor Bazelak who previously held down positions for Missouri and Indiana; thus far Bowling Green’s four Power 4 opponents have lost by 22.5 points or less, so could this provide a potential cover here?

Pick: Penn State 48  Bowling Green 13

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Penn State -34.5

• Bowling Green has experienced Quarterback
• Penn State at home
• Penn State is the better team

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No. 17 Kansas State (-9.5) at Tulane

Tulane defeated Kansas State 17-10 in 2022, and now the Wildcats will get their revenge in this return game. It is important for Tulane coach Jon Sumrall (formerly of Troy). Last season, the Wildcats beat Sumrall’s Trojans 42-13, while this year Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens will likely lead the offensive attack Kansas State’s run defense could prove pivotal – this season and will be the difference one way or the other in this game.

Pick: Kansas State -9.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Kansas State -9.5

• Kansas State is more talented
• Tulane at home
• Kansas State is the better team

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No. 3 Texas (-7.5) at No. 10 Michigan

Texas has become an overwhelming favorite here – possibly too much so. Michigan struggled in their opening matchup against Fresno State and is in an unstable quarterback situation between Davis Warren and Alex Orji. It could wreak havoc with Michigan if they cannot force turnovers in this game. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will likely need to step up if Texas cannot establish their running game against Michigan, who allowed only nine rushing yards last week. Ewers had a 70.5% completion percentage on the road last season, and if he avoids turnovers, Texas will keep Michigan at bay. Michigan may make things interesting, but you trust proven quarterbacks like Ewers in games like these. Note that Texas is only 1-4 against top-10 opponents under Sarkisian. Texas wins, but Michigan Covers.

Pick: Michigan +7.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Michigan +7.5

• Ewers is a big time QB
• Michigan at home
• Michigan is dominant against the run

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No. 23 Georgia Tech (-3) at Syracuse

Kyle McCord passed for four touchdowns in Syracuse’s 38-22 win against Ohio. Syracuse is at home, which bodes well against Georgia Tech. However, they allowed 255 rushing yards last week against Haynes King and Jamal Haynes, who average 207.5 on the road—that could spell disaster for Syracuse.

Pick: Georgia Teck -3

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Georgia Tech -3.5

• McCord is playing well
• Syracuse at home
• Georgia Tech dominates on the ground

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Arkansas at No. 16 Oklahoma State (-7.5)

Last week, South Dakota State came within striking distance of an upset, yet ultimately lost. Arkansas has an excellent chance against them here due to a new offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino, and quarterback, Taylen Green; together, they racked up 229 passing yards, 88 rushing yards and four total touchdowns during their debut game vs Texas A&M last season – not to mention their 30-15 series advantage!

Pick: Arkansas +7.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Arkansas +7.5

• Razorback offense explosive
• Cowboys at home
• Cowboys defense is not great

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Northern Illinois at No. 5 Notre Dame (-28.5)

Notre Dame will likely face an emotional letdown game against Northern Illinois this week, and their pass defense should prevent Ethan Hampton from throwing five touchdowns against Notre Dame as he did last week. Expect them to rely heavily on running game early to establish Riley Leonard as an offensive threat before moving on to passing game success – hopefully earning a late cover, but I think the Huskies cover against the irish.

Pick: Northern Illinois +28.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Northern Illinois +28.5

• Northern Illinois strong passing game
• Notre Dame at home
• Expect a Notre Dame letdown

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Baylor at No. 11 Utah (-14)

Cam Rising made his return with five touchdowns in just his first game since 2022. Baylor, who received an injection of power with Toledo transfer quarterback DeQuan Finn under Dave Aranda’s playcalling this year compared to previous years; Finn will make mistakes against Utah’s strong defense, however; making mistakes that have resulted in 8-5-2 ATS performances for Baylor when underdogs. Expect this one to stay tight until late, then Utah pulls away, but will it be enough to cover?

Pick: Utah -14

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Utah -14

• Expect a high scoring game
• Utah at home
• Cam Rising to have big day

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Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa (-2.5)

Iowa scored 40 points in their opener, led by Cade McNamara, who passed for 251 yards, three TDs, and no interceptions for the Hawkeyes. Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht matched this performance. As both quarterbacks are nearly similar, both teams should utilize a conservative strategy when competing in a in-state rivalry game at Kinnick Stadium – although an upset is possible as Iowa State is known to challenge top teams often enough. Kirk Ferentz returns after serving his one-game suspension, and the Hawkeyes beat Iowa State 8 times out of 9 times during that span!

Pick: Iowa -2.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Iowa -2.5

• Expect a low scoring game
• Iowa at home
• McNamara makes clutch plays

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Jacksonville State at No. 22 Louisville (-28)

The Jaguars suffered an alarming 55-27 loss against Coastal Carolina, due to three turnovers and a defense that allowed 552 yards. That will not improve against Louisville as Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough had an impressive debut with four touchdown passes for 232 yards; their balanced running game should find success against Louisville’s pass rush led by Ashton Gillotte and Tramel Logan, though.

Pick: Louisville -28

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Louisville -28

• Expect a High scoring game
• Louisville at home
• Louisville offense to roll

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Middle Tennessee at No. 6 Ole Miss (-41.5)

Last week, the Rebels scored 76 points on Furman, with Jaxson Dart as the FBS leader in passer efficiency. Tre Harris should continue his dominating play against an up-and-coming Blue Raiders pass defense, which allowed 274 passing yards against Tennessee Tech last week. First-year coach Derek Mason knows his way around SEC coaching well; perhaps there will be ways they can keep this large spread under control.

Pick: Ole Miss -41.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ole Miss -41.5

• Ole Miss will score 55+
• Ole Miss at home
• Jaxson Dart will roll

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South Florida at No. 4 Alabama (-31)

The Bulls run an up-tempo offense under Alex Golesh and boast confidence in recalling last season’s 17-3 game against Bama. Expect Alabama players to remember it; Jalen Milroe currently leads the nation in QBR at 98.7; this could motivate him even further! Meanwhile, Alabama keeps rolling under Kalen DeBoer.

Pick: Alabama -31

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Alabama -31

• Alabama offensive explosion
• Bama at home
• Alabama highly motivated after last years game

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Buffalo at No. 9 Missouri (-34.5)

Missouri looks set for another considerable spread – this time against a Mid-American Conference opponent. Pete Lembo is an experienced coach, and Buffalo could improve in its running game under Pete. Can they avoid turnovers that lead to a blowout? All four previous MAC opponents faced by Missouri scored 20-plus points; Buffalo may find its defence difficult against Missouri’s more toughened defense, and Luther Burden III may score multiple touchdowns but could make a strong initial challenger; Missouri has scored 50+ against just two FBS opponents under Eli Drinkwitz!

Pick: Buffalo +34.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Buffalo +34.5

• Expect a high scoring game
• Missouri at home
• Buffalo can’t keep up, but they will cover

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No. 22 Kansas (-5.5) at Illinois

Kansas will face an unpredictable road test against Illinois this Saturday. While they defeated Bret Bielema’s Illini 34-23 last season and quarterback Jalon Daniels is healthy, this Illinois team has improved immensely compared to its performance last season. If Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw—who rushed for 10.4 yards per carry against Eastern Illinois—continue their success, Kansas should do just fine away from home.

Pick: Kansas -5,5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Kanasa -5.5

• Kansas wins on the ground
• Illini at home
• Kansas wins by 7-10 points

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Western Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State (-38.5)

Ohio State started slowly against Akron, which will likely be discussed during Week 2. Unfortunately for Western Michigan (who were beaten 28-14 by Wisconsin in Week 1), Ohio State edge rushers JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer will feast off of that edge rush, while Will Howard should connect better with receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, leading to a more reasonable spread favoring them at home.

Pick: Ohio State -38.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ohio State -38.5

• Offensive explosion from Ohio State
• Buckeyes at home
• Ohio State will start this game off better

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No. 14 Tennessee (-7.5) vs. No. 24 NC State

These schools haven’t met since 2012. Tennessee defeated NC State 35-21 at Atlanta back then; now, in Charlotte, the Wolfpack must contain Tennessee’s 718 total-yard offense against Chattanooga during Week 1. Iamaleava hit 14 out of 14 passes in the middle of the field, according to Pro Football Focus in Week 1, while Grayson McCall found his groove during NC State’s season opener versus Chattanooga.

Pick: Tennessee -7.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Tennessee -7.5

• Offensive explosion
• Neutral site
• Volunteers too strong

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Houston at No. 15 Oklahoma (-29)

After Oklahoma’s impressive 51-3 opening win against Temple and Houston’s loss to UNLV by 27-7, this line surged more than one touchdown. Oklahoma’s defense forced six turnovers during their impressive performance against Temple; Jackson Arnold will maintain control here, and Oklahoma will not hesitate to open up in the second half when given an opportunity.

Pick: Oklahoma -29

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Oklahoma -29

• Sooners D dominates
• Sooners at home
• Sooners too strong

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Appalachian State at No. 25 Clemson (-17.5)

Clemson looks to rebound after its 34-3 loss to Georgia with a win against Appalachian State. Their reputation as upsetters could sway some bettors, however. Appalachian State is 9-3-1 against the spread as an underdog under Shawn Clark since 2019. Joey Aguliar is a second-year starter who makes few errors. Clemson should win this contest, but it could prove close at times. Clemson won 41-10 back in 2015.

Pick: APP State +17.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet App State +17.5

• Close game
• Clemson at home
• Clemson offense needs to get on track

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Boise State at No. 7 Oregon (-19)

The Ducks dod not find much success against Idaho in their season opener, yet Dillon Gabriel still completed 83.7 percent of his passes, without making many errors. Things should improve against Boise State, who allowed 45 points against Georgia Southern. Boise State holds an all-time series advantage against Oregon – this is an intriguing contest between two talented teams that could produce plenty of points during what promises to be an action-packed contest.

Pick: Boise State +19

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Boise State +19

• High scoring game
• Oregon at home
• Oregon offense needs to get on track

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Utah State at No. 13 USC (-28.5)

The Trojans are coming off an impressive 27-20 win against LSU on a short week, where their defense was much-improved. A letdown spot could come against the Aggies, who rank 12th in FBS with 303.0 rushing yards per game. Whether or not Lincoln Riley and quarterback Miller Moss can keep pace will likely determine who prevails here. Lincoln Riley has led his side to an impressive record against non-conference competition while maintaining strong defensive play; thus far, he is 6-3 against the spread against non-conference matchups since taking charge on defence has never let up; his strong defensive presence won’t let up either.

Pick: USC -28.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet USC +28.5

• USC Offense will roll
• USC at home
• Miller Moss will have a huge game

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