NCAA Football Week 4: Betting All Top 25 Teams against the spread

week one Against the spread: 8-8

Week Two Against the Spread 9-7

Week Three Against the Spread 10-5

Overall 27-20

Week 4

Illinois vs Nebraska

• Point Spread: Nebraska 8.5
• Moneyline Illinois +270
• Moneyline Nebraska -345
• Over/Under 43.5

Nebraska defeated Illinois 20-7 last season on the road, holding Illinois to only 21 rushing yards. Illinois currently boasts an 8+ turnover ratio while Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola (73.84% completion rate, one interception in three starts) should pull away without turning over the ball; Bret Bielema is 9-3 against the spread when betting as an underdog road team; therefore this requires betting against the trend.

Prediction: Nebraska 27  Illinois 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Nebraska -8.5

• Two much improved teams
• Raiola will be the difference
• Nebraska at home

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NC State at No. 21 Clemson

• Point Spread: Clemson -19.5
• Moneyline NC State +800
• Moneyline Clemson -1400
• Over/Under 47.5

NC State quarterback Grayson McCall has an unspecified injury, so this line may change depending on his status for Saturday’s matchup against Clemson. Each of the last three games in this series has been decided by 10 or fewer points; NC State won 24-17 last season in Clemson but hasn’t triumphed there since 2002 due to quarterback issues that will make this tough for NC State to overcome with Clemson having just come off a bye week.

Prediction: Clemson 31 NC State 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet NC State +19.5

• Clemson coming off bye week
• McCall is questionable
• Clemson at home

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Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State

• Point Spread: Ohio State -39.5
• Moneyline Marshall
• Moneyline Ohio State
• Over/Under 51.5

Ohio State had its bye week and has yet to allow an offensive touchdown this season, thanks to Will Howard’s efficient play and two running backs who average over 7.0 yards per carry (TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins) will prove difficult for opponents to stop. Marshall averages 6.6 yards per rush attempt but Ohio State is different from the other Marshall opponents.

Prediction: Ohio State 52  Marshall 10

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ohio State -39.5

• Buckeyes defense dominates
• Marshall will struggle to throw
• Ohio State at home

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Arkansas State at No. 20 Iowa State

• Point Spread: Iowa State -21.5
• Moneyline Arkansas St +1060
• Moneyline Iowa State -2300
• Over/Under 51.5

Iowa State had an extra week off before facing Arkansas State, who challenged Michigan hard before succumbing 28-18. Arkansas State struggled against running plays so this should be an opportunity for Cyclones running back Abu Sama to shine against an Arkansas State defense that is susceptible to run plays. Iowa State lost to Ohio in 2023 so Matt Campbell won’t take this Group 5 school lightly, so this shouldn’t feel like an easy win.

Prediction: Iowa State 30  Arkansas State 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Arkansas State +21.5

• Sama to shine
• Iowa State too talented
• Iowa State at home

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Miami, Ohio at No. 17 Notre Dame

• Point Spread: Notre Dame -27.5
• Moneyline Miami of Ohio +3000
• Moneyline Notre Dame -10000
• Over/Under 43.5

Notre Dame knows its task now. After losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2, they must now use their superior offense to win every game going forward. After managing 11 points per game against Northwestern and Cincinnati combined, and giving up 182.5 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry in their first two games the Redhawks will find themselves behind quickly in this game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 45  Miami of Ohio 13

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Notre Dame -27.5

• Leonard to shine
• Irish too talented
• Irish at home

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Buffalo at No. 23 Northern Illinois

• Point Spread: Northern Illinois -13.5
• Moneyline Buffalo +460
• Moneyline Northern Illinois -650
• Over/Under 43.5

Northern Illinois was given an extra week off after its impressive win against Notre Dame, and expectations will only increase under coach Thomas Hammock. Ethan Hampton has excelled so far with mistake-free play (526 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions). Meanwhile, Buffalo is improving under first-year coach Pete Lembo; their Bulls average just one turnover per game; these teams last met each other back in 2021.

Prediction: Northern Illinois 33  Buffalo 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Northern Illinois -13.5

• Hampton to play well
• Northern Illinois too talented
• Northern Illinois at home

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Kent State at No. 10 Penn State

• Point Spread: Penn State -48.5
• Moneyline Kent State +460
• Moneyline Penn State -650
• Over/Under 55.5

Kent State lost 71-0 to Tennessee and now must face Penn State, which is coming off a bye week after an underwhelming performance against Bowling Green in Week 2. Penn State will rely heavily on its rushing attack, led by Nick Singleton and Kayton Allen, who both average seven yards per carry combined.

Prediction: Penn State 58  Kent State 7

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Penn State -48.5

• Penn State rolls on the ground
• Penn State too talented
• Penn State at home

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No. 11 USC (-6) at No. 18 Michigan

• Point Spread: USC -5.5
• Moneyline USC -230
• Moneyline Michigan +188
• Over/Under 45.5

This line has seen its spread decrease by half-point at other sportsbooks, but giving home team points in any matchup between ranked teams can be risky. USC has established itself with Miller Moss at quarterback and only committed one turnover through three weeks – provided Michigan doesn’t exert pressure early in the game. Meanwhile, Michigan has an uncertain quarterback situation between Davis Warren and Alex Orji with an unfavorable turnover ratio, giving up four turnovers over that span, which won’t bode well against USC’s run defense.

Prediction: USC 31  Michigan 17

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Penn State USC -5.5

• Moss to play well
• Michigan offense to struggle
• Michigan at home

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Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville

• Point Spread: Louisville -10.5
• Moneyline Georgia Tech +310
• Moneyline USC -400
• Over/Under 57.5

Here is an excellent matchup: Louisville beat Georgia Tech 39-34 last season and boasts a 263-yard-per-game rushing attack. The passing game under Tyler Shough, who ranks third in the ACC with a 188.4 passer rating has been solid. In response, Haynes King leads Georgia Tech’s relentless running game as their frontline defense. Although this line seems high at first, Louisville’s record as an underdog under Brohm stands out at 7-2 against the spread at home and 6-2 as an away favorite ATS.

Prediction: Louisville 27  Georgia Tech 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Georgia Tech +10.5

• The run game will dominate
• Shough will be the difference
• Louisville at home

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UCLA at No. 16 LSU

• Point Spread: LSU -24.5
• Moneyline UCLA +1400
• Moneyline LSU-4000
• Over/Under 55.5

UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers boasts a 54.1% completion percentage, with his Bruins averaging an average 3.5 yards per carry, which makes for an inevitability against LSU at Death Valley. With LSU coming off an emotional victory at South Carolina and knowing they have 9-2 record as home favorites under Brian Kelly.

Prediction: LSU 48  UCLA 13

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet LSU -24.5

• LSU to dominate
• UCLA defense is bad
• LSU at home

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No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State

• Point Spread: Utah -1.5
• Moneyline Utah -118
• Moneyline Oklahoma St -102
• Over/Under 52.5

This Big 12 matchup promises to be exciting. Utah turned to quarterback Isaac Wilson last week and relies on Micah Bernard and Mike Mitchell’s no-nonsense running attack for an effective run game, while Oklahoma State has struggled running the football but veteran quarterback Alan Bowman averages 322.3 passing yards per game with no interceptions this season. As road underdogs since last season, Utah is just 1-3 against S/U but has gone 2-2 ATS as an underdog while the Cowboys are 5-1 but 2-4 in terms of home favoritism – truly making this an interesting matchup!

Prediction: Oklahoma State 27  Utah 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Oklahoma State +1.5

• Bowman to have a huge game
• Utah will need to pass to win
• Oklahoma State at home

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South Florida at No. 8 Miami, Fla

• Point Spread: Miami -16.5
• Moneyline South Florida +550
• Moneyline Miami -820
• Over/Under 65.5

Miami leads the FBS in yards per play and Cam Ward is among those contending for the Heisman Trophy. South Florida played Alabama in Week 2, and Alex Golesh will likely vie for Power 4 vacancies this off-season. Under Golesh’s watch as an underdog manager, South Florida went 7-2 against them against Miami (ATS record of 7-2 under him against Hurricanes); however, Miami boasts one of the strongest third-down defenses in FBS; making it hard for South Florida to keep up in second half.

Prediction: Miami 44  South Florida 23

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Miami -16.5

• Ward to dominate
• South Florida will hang tough for awhile
• Miami at home

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Vanderbilt at No. 7 Missouri

• Point Spread: Missouri -21.5
• Moneyline Vanderbilt +890
• Moneyline Missouri -1700
• Over/Under 52.5

The Tigers have won three consecutive matches between these teams, and Vanderbilt has been an intriguing team this year. They led Diego Paiva’s upset against Virginia Tech before losing in overtime against Georgia State in Week 3. However, Vanderbilt only committed one turnover this season, which might allow them to remain competitive during the SEC opener.

Prediction: Missouri 34  Vanderbilt 16

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Vandy +21.5

• Tigers are hot
• Vandy inconsistent
• Missouri at home

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No. 13 Kansas State at BYU

• Point Spread: Kansas State -7.5
• Moneyline Kansas State -260
• Moneyline BYU +210
• Over/Under 47.5

Late-night battle between unbeaten Big 12 teams. BYU boasts two road victories and quarterback Jake Retzlaff is both the passing and rushing leader for BYU; their defense allows just 3.4 yards per carry against Kansas State’s physical running game that averages 244.3 yards on seven yards per carry!

Prediction: BYU 26  Kansas State 24  

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet BYU +7.5

• Retzlaff to have big game
• BYU at home

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UL-Monroe at No. 1 Texas

• Point Spread: Texas -44.5
• Moneyline UL-Moroe
• Moneyline Texas
• Over/Under 52.5

Manning averaged 22.7 yards per completion when taking over for Quinn Ewers last week and may lean heavily on a running game that averages 173.3 yards per game to beat Bryant Vincent’s Warhawks, who have gone unbeaten under first-year coach Bryant Vincent so far this season. Last year the Longhorns beat UL-Monroe 52-10 under Manning who is off to an incredible start this year!

Prediction: Texas 55  UL-Monroe 6  

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Texas -44.5

• Manning to have big game
• Texas at home

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No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma

• Point Spread: Tennessee -6.5
• Moneyline Tennessee -260
• Moneyline Oklahoma +210
• Over/Under 57.5

This game presents another difficult decision. Oklahoma is making its SEC debut and has seen its line reduce by half a point from its initial opening price. Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold and Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava will both be under intense scrutiny here; Arnold has been sacked nine times while Iamaleava has three. If Tennessee can avoid turnovers and use Dylan Sampson to start running upfield then that could ruin Oklahoma’s party.

Prediction: Tennessee 37  Oklahoma 24

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Tennessee -6.5

• Nico Iamaleava dominates
• Sooners must force turnovers
• Oklahoma at home

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Bowling Green at No. 25 Texas A&M

• Point Spread: Texas A&M -22.5
• Moneyline Bowling Green +1000
• Moneyline Texas A&M -2100
• Over/Under 52.5

Texas A&M is back in the AP Top 25 thanks to Marcel Reed, who proved a formidable dual-threat playmaker against Florida with 178 passing yards, 83 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns. Texas A&M also features two running backs who average more than five yards per carry in Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels respectively. Bowling Green had an extra week off to prepare after giving Penn State fits

Prediction: Texas A&M 31  Bowling Green 20

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Bowling Green +22.5

• Falcons to stay in the game until late
• Falcons must force turnovers
• Texas A&M at home

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Georgia Southern at No. 5 Ole Miss

• Point Spread: Ole Miss -36.5
• Moneyline Georgia Southern
• Moneyline Ole Miss
• Over/Under 66.5

Lane Kiffin and Clay Helton will square off in an epic battle of former USC coaches, featuring JC French’s Eagles scoring an average of 35.7 points per game compared to 29 points allowed per game by Georgia Southern against Ole Miss’ 692 yards per game FBS offense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet! Expect Ole Miss to extend its winning streak ATS by outlasting another massive line with ease.

Prediction: Ole Miss 61  Georgia Southern 13

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Ole Miss -36.5

• Over early
• Rebels offense explosion
• Ole Miss at home

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