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The College Football Playoff title match will be played between No. 1 Georgia (14-0, 7-7 ATS, and No. 3 TCU (13-1 Su, 10-3-1 ATS) at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California, on Monday at 8:30 pm ET. We have Georgia, the defending champions, against the underdog TCU Horned Frogs. This matchup would have been scoffed at by most, but after the semifinal games, I think everybody knows the Frogs belong.
Both teams had impressive victories in the CFP semifinals.
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Georgia Bulldogs Betting Tips
The Bulldogs scored a near-miraculous victory when Stetson Bennett hit Adonai Mitchel with 54 seconds remaining. Bennett finished 23 of 34 for 398 yards with three TDs, and a pick. Kenny McIntosh led Dawgs with 70 rushing yards, while Daijun Edwards added 56 yards. Arian Smith, WR, was the playmaker with three catches for 129 yards and a touchdown.
Although Georgia’s overall performance was unimpressive, they were unable to keep up with OSU QB C.J. Stroud threw for 348 yards, four touchdowns and no picks. The Bulldogs defense, which is usually dominant, did not force a turnover. Georgia managed to make it to the championship game despite being T-75th in turnover margin.
Georgia’s schedule is listed as 21st in the nation and they struggled with Kentucky (16-6) and Missouri (26-22)
Georgia should be fine in terms of injuries.
Bennett is Georgia’s leading passer with 3,420 yards of passing, 20 TDs, and six picks. Bennett also has seven rushing touchdowns but is not as fast as Duggan. The Dawgs have many backs that can carry it, so he doesn’t have to. Georgia’s average game yardage is 491.8 yards (7th), 284.5 passing yards (19th), and 207.3 rushing yards (18th). This is a far cry from the 4.5 yards and a cloud of dust. McIntosh leads the team with 779 yards and 10 TDs. He averages 5.2 yards per run.
Georgia’s defense has been impressive for most of the season but it was not on Saturday. They are 9th in overall yardage with 292.1 yards per game and rank 52nd with 215.1 passing yards (52nd).
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TCU was a nine-point underdog heading into last Saturday’s semifinal against Michigan. Many thought the Michigan front line would overpower the Horned Frogs on both sides of the ball. . The second half was already underway when Michigan’s offense began to pick up the pace. TCU responded with a one-yard run and a 29-yard interception from Dee Winters to keep them ahead. TCU’s defense did not play well but they made some huge plays that really determined the winner of this game.
Sonny Dykes, who came over from SMU, has done a fantastic job with a team that wasn’t even considered among the top 25 before the start of the year. They had Max Dugan as their quarterback, who proved to be a solid dual-threat quarterback. Duggan completed just 14 of 29 passes for 225 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He ran for 57 yards with two touchdowns, and RB Emari Delmercado ran for 150 yards and scored. They ran for 263 yards against one of the most formidable run defenses in the country.
Kendre Miller, running back for Michigan, is now in danger of being unable to play, but Dykes said it would be a game-time decision. He had already rushed for 1,342 yards this season and 17 touchdowns. He also had eight carries of 57 yards.
TCU’s pass defense will be the key to this game. They give up 235.6 yards per contest (83rd) and allowed Michigan to throw for 342 yards, giving them an opportunity to win the game. They allowed 149 yards per game for on the ground this season, which was 64th against the run.
This game will be a test of the offense’s balance. Georgia is explosive, and Duggan needs to score points. Quentin Johnson was Duggan’s top target on Saturday, catching six passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. With 53 catches, he leads the Horned Frogs team with 903 yards.
TCU’s offense averages 473 yards (16th), with 273 passing yards (25th), and 200 rushing yards (2nd). Duggan has completed 64.9% of his passes for 3,321 yards with 30 TDs. He also had four picks. Duggan has also rushed for 404 yards and six touchdowns this season.
Betting the game
The Georgia Bulldogs are not as good as last season’s team. TCU belongs here, and they have dominant players on offense. Sonny Dykes is an excellent coach, and I think TCU can definitely win this game. The Bulldogs are overvalued here; take TCU and the Points.
If you are betting on the Frogs to cover, the payoff will be solid, not great, and I think the Frogs will cover this game. For example, a few days before the game, the odds are averaging -110 if you are betting on the Frogs to cover. If you bet 100 on the Frogs +13.5, the payout would be around 91 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 91 for winning the bet.
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