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No. 3 Michigan faces No. 2 Ohio State in Saturday’s Game at Ohio Stadium, Columbus.
The game time is at 12 p.m. ET and will be televised by Fox. A chance to appear in the Big Ten championship match is on the line plus a CFP berth is at stake..
Michigan (11-0), is seeking back-to-back victories against the Buckeyes for the first time since 1999/2000. Jim Harbaugh has placed the Wolverines in a position to win the Big Ten championship for the second consecutive season. However, Blake Corum’s health, who sustained a knee injury in Week 12 against Illinois, is a major talking point going into the matchup. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy must be more efficient to give Michigan a chance at breaking the drought at The Shoe.
Ohio State (11-0), is seeking to avenge last year’s 42-27 defeat to the Wolverines. Ryan Day has never lost a Big Ten home game. C.J. Stroud, the Buckeyes’ quarterback, has a powerful offense. The Buckeyes offense is loaded and a better defense under Jim Knowles will make this a tough one to get for the Wolverines. This season, Ohio State has won all of its games by double digits. Jaxon Smith–Njigba and Miyan Williams, among other key injuries, are all part of the Buckeyes’ injury list.
Ohio State is ranked second in the FBS for scoring offense (45.5) and ninth in scoring defense (16.6). Michigan is second in scoring defense (11.7) and ninth in scoring offense (39.5).
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There are three trends you should know
— Since 2000, the Buckeyes have won nine consecutive home games against the Wolverines. These games were won by Ohio State at an average of 14.9 points.
–Ohio State has won 29 consecutive Big Ten home games. It has also won them by an average margin of 30.2 points. Under Day, the Buckeyes are now 3-1 ATS in Big Ten home matches this season. Day has only lost one Big Ten home game since he took over. Ohio State beat No. 9 Indiana, 42-35 in 2020. The Buckeyes defeated No. 20 Penn State was defeated 33-24 by the Buckeyes last season. This were the only other game that was decided by less than 10 points.
–Harbaugh assumed control in 2015 and the Wolverines have a 3-12 S/U record and a 6-9 ATS record as an underdog. They are also 1-6 S/U, and 3-4 ATS road underdogs. Under Harbaugh, Michigan is 0-2 in Ohio Stadium. In 2016, the 30-27 double-overtime defeat was very close. The 2018 blowout loss of 62-39 was not.
Stat that matters most
Drew Henson was Michigan’s last winning quarterback at The Shoe. McCarthy, a five-star first-year starter, has this kind of confidence to get it done. The past three weeks have seen McCarthy struggle with accuracy, with a 50% completion rate in those games. McCarthy has 14 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. But he still needs Luke Schoonmaker, a tight end (315 yards, two TD’s), back. Ronnie Bell, receiver (641 yards and two TDs), needs to make an impact on third down. McCarthy doesn’t need to be as statistically accurate as Stroud, but the young quarterback can’t make the big mistake on the road.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Tips
Rutgers, Nebraska, Iowa and Indiana, just to name a few.
Michigan has faced seven of the 35 most inefficient offenses in college football. Penn State’s 37th-best offense ranks as the most talented the Wolverines have played, while Maryland’s is the closest to facing a dangerous passing attack.
The offensive line is just flat out good. It will pound, and Ohio State’s run defence will have its ups and downs. It’s not easy for Michigan to pass the ball when needed.
JJ McCarthy has performed well, but against a bunch of poor teams in the last four games, not including Illinois, he hasn’t been able to hit 60% of his passes.
This is a pressure-leads-to-breaking Michigan offense. The pounding eventually takes over, and the second half is full of points and yards. It didn’t work against the outstanding Illinois defense last week. Corum was hurt, and it will be a huge problem if the Buckeyes gets up early.
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CJ Stroud remains CJ Stroud. However, TreVeyon and Miyan Williams, the backfield stars, are still trying to overcome leg problems. WR JaxonSmith-Njigba, who hasn’t been 100% all year, is still playing well but is not one hundred percent.
It’s Ohio State, so it was a win over Maryland of 43-30. However, the 401 yards were alarmingly small at a time when everything should be going well.
The Buckeye offense now has to deal with the No. 1 defense in college football.
The Wolverine defense allows less than three yards per run, while the pass D hasn’t allowed anyone to reach 270 yards. It’s strong enough in the backfield to be a force to stop the Buckeyes’ clicking.
The other side of the coin is Michigan’s offensive style. This should be a problem for a team who hasn’t had to deal with many great running teams this season.
The Michigan O line will be able to blast away with or without Blake Corum carrying it – the 168 yards rushing against Illinois was a better performance that you might think – there were only six turnovers in the first 11 games.
Ohio State is loaded on offense though, and the Wolverines have not faced an offense like Ohio State this season.
Betting the game
This game will be a battle. I look for Ohio State to jump on the Wolverines early and build a lead. From there the Wolverines will battle back until the Buckeyes take control in the fourth quarter. The difference in this game will be that Stroud is just better than JJ McCarthy.
Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes 31 Michigan Wolverines 21(Take the Buckeyes and give the 7 points)
Potential earnings
If you are betting on the Buckeyes to cover, the payoff will be solid, not great, and I think the Buckeyes will cover this game. For example, a few days before the game, the odds are averaging -110 if you are betting on the Buckeyes to cover. If you bet 100 on the Buckeyes -7.5, the payout would be around 88 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 88 for winning the bet.
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