Memphis at UNLV 2026 Week 0 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Time: 10:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM PT Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada TV: FOX Tickets: As low as $37 Betting Line: UNLV -5.5 Moneyline: UNLV approximately -233 / Memphis +187 Over/Under: 57.5 Points

One of the biggest Group of Six games of college football’s opening weekend takes place in Las Vegas when Memphis visits UNLV at Allegiant Stadium.

UNLV enters as a 5.5-point favorite after finishing 10-4 in 2025 and reaching its third consecutive Mountain West Championship Game. The Rebels have won 30 games over the past three seasons and enter Dan Mullen’s second season expecting to contend for another conference title.

Memphis finished 8-5, but lost its final four games after an 8-1 start. New head coach Charles Huff has rebuilt much of the roster through the transfer portal.

Both teams enter with quarterback uncertainty. Memphis is choosing between Marcus Stokes and Air Noland, while UNLV has Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold competing with returning quarterback Alex Orji.

Stokes brings intriguing production after throwing for 3,297 yards and 30 touchdowns while adding 367 rushing yards and 10 scores at West Florida last season.

The quarterback who settles in fastest could ultimately decide the game.

Top Four Prop Bets

Player props vary by sportsbook and jurisdiction. Confirm exact numbers and starting-quarterback decisions before wagering.

Prop Bet #1: Jai’Den Thomas Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Thomas Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

• 1,036 Yards in 2025
• 7.0 Yards Per Carry
• Proven Feature Back

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Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas may be the most dependable offensive player in this matchup.

The UNLV senior rushed for 1,036 yards and 12 touchdowns on 148 carries last season, averaging seven yards per attempt.

Quarterback uncertainty should increase his importance. Whether Arnold, Orji or both play, Mullen can establish his offense through Thomas before expanding into quarterback runs and play action.

At his 2025 average, Thomas would need only about 12 carries to reach 80 yards.

Memphis could provide resistance under defensive coordinator Lance Guidry, but Thomas’ efficiency makes the over attractive.

Projected Bet: Jai’Den Thomas Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Marcus Stokes Over 224.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Stokes Over 224.5 Passing Yards

• 3,297 Yards in 2025
• 30 Passing TDs
• Dual-Threat Production

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Only consider this prop if Stokes is officially named Memphis’ clear starter.

Stokes averaged 274.8 passing yards per game at West Florida while accounting for 40 total touchdowns.

Memphis offensive coordinator Kevin Decker arrives from Old Dominion, where his offense averaged more than 460 yards and 32 points per game last season. That aggressive approach should provide opportunities for Memphis’ quarterback.

Game script could also help. If UNLV builds a lead, Memphis may be forced to throw 30-plus times.

The concern is Stokes’ jump from Division II competition and the possibility of Noland receiving meaningful snaps.

Projected Bet: Marcus Stokes Over 224.5 Passing Yards — if named the clear starter

Prop Bet #3: Dallan Hayden Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Hayden Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

• Veteran Power-Four Back
• Memphis Native
• Run-Heavy Offensive Philosophy

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Former Ohio State and Colorado running back Dallan Hayden brings Power Four experience to Memphis and owns 1,185 career rushing yards.

Decker’s Old Dominion offense averaged 236.9 rushing yards per game last season, suggesting Memphis will emphasize the ground game through zone reads, quarterback movement and conventional rushing attempts.

The main concern is workload. Jaylin Carter and Manny Covey could also receive carries, and Memphis may abandon the run if UNLV builds a significant lead.

Still, Hayden doesn’t need a bell-cow workload to reach 50 yards.

Projected Bet: Dallan Hayden Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Over 57.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Over 57.5 Points

• Two Creative Offensive Coaches
• Dual-Threat Quarterbacks
• Proven UNLV Running Game

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The over may be the strongest betting angle.

UNLV averaged 34.1 points per game last season, while Memphis averaged 32.5.

Mullen’s offense becomes especially dangerous with mobile quarterbacks. Arnold rushed for 311 yards and eight touchdowns at Auburn, while Orji offers another powerful running threat.

Add Thomas, and opposing defenses must account for the running back, quarterback runs and play action.

Memphis also has dual-threat potential if Stokes starts. His 40 total touchdowns last season show his ability to create both through the air and on the ground.

There could be early timing issues with new quarterbacks and personnel, but scores such as 31-27 or 34-24 are enough to clear the number.

Bet: Over 57.5 Points

Betting Prediction

UNLV deserves to be favored because of its program stability, home-field advantage and proven running game.

However, UNLV -5.5 may be slightly too many points.

Huff rebuilt Memphis with experienced transfers. Hayden brings Power Four experience, Stokes produced 40 touchdowns last season, and Noland gives the Tigers another talented quarterback option.

Memphis has enough talent to stay competitive into the fourth quarter.

The total may be the better wagering opportunity. Both coaching staffs have creative offensive backgrounds, both teams feature mobile quarterbacks, and both should be capable of generating explosive plays.

The Verdict

UNLV’s home field, stability and rushing attack should ultimately provide the difference.

Expect Thomas to become the centerpiece of the Rebels’ offense early while Memphis attempts to establish Hayden and settle its quarterback situation.

If Stokes wins the starting job and his Division II production translates, Memphis could have one of the more intriguing new quarterbacks in the Group of Six.

This matchup should remain within one possession late, with UNLV making enough plays to win while Memphis stays inside the spread.

Final Score Prediction: UNLV Rebels 34, Memphis Tigers 30

Best Bet: Over 57.5

Against the Spread: Memphis +5.5

Moneyline Lean: UNLV -233

Upset Value: Memphis +187

Top Player Prop: Jai’Den Thomas Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

Additional Props: Dallan Hayden Over 49.5 Rushing Yards | Marcus Stokes Over 224.5 Passing Yards if officially named the clear Memphis starter