First CFP Rankings Show Weaknesses Across All 25 Teams

The first CFP rankings of the season put Miami at No. 1, followed by Georgia, Utah and Indiana, and every one of the 25 teams on the list carries a weakness that could end its season. Some of those problems are obvious, and others hide behind good records.

The committee also handed out a few surprises. Alabama landed at No. 5 a few weeks after losing 26-10 at Tennessee, and Notre Dame came in at No. 11, seven spots below its AP ranking. Ohio State sits 12th but would be the first team out of the field because No. 25 Boise State takes the Group of Six spot.

Ten of the 25 teams in the CFP rankings come from the SEC, more than any other conference. Here is the biggest flaw for every team in the top 25, based on the efficiency numbers behind each team’s weak spot.

Quarterback play could decide the Playoff

Five of the top 15 teams list quarterback play as their biggest problem, and Indiana might have the most urgent case. Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover completed 68% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and no interceptions in his first six starts, then went 36-of-77 over the last three weeks while playing through injuries. Indiana replaced him at halftime in last Saturday’s narrow win over Minnesota, and backup Grant Wilson went 9-of-17.

Texas has the best defense in the country by yards per play, allowing 4.0 per snap, but quarterback Arch Manning ranks 64th in Total QBR after costly late mistakes in both losses. UCLA is 8-0 without much of a passing game, and the Bruins are 3-for-17 on third-and-7 or longer since Ty Dieffenbach replaced the injured Nico Iamaleava.

Then there’s Tennessee, where quarterback George MacIntyre has a Total QBR of 21.6 in three starts, and Texas Tech, which turned to quarterback Thomas Castellanos and got an 11-of-24 passing day in a win over Arizona. Every one of those teams can win with defense and a run game in November, but the playoff usually asks a quarterback to win at least one game by himself.

Miami and Georgia have problems they can fix

Miami’s offense might be the best in the country, and it may need to be. The Hurricanes have allowed 31 points and 6.6 yards per play over their last three games, and their pass defense ranks 120th in QBR allowed with cornerback OJ Frederique Jr. still out. Miami visits Notre Dame, the No. 2 offense in SP+, on Saturday.

Georgia’s issue is stranger. The Bulldogs are fourth in yards per play and fifth in yards per play allowed, yet they have fumbled 14 times, tied for 126th nationally, including eight times in the last three games. They have also muffed four punts this season. Ball security is the kind of problem a good staff can clean up in practice, and Georgia will need it cleaned up before Saturday night at Ole Miss.

The CFP rankings like Kentucky more than the numbers do

Kentucky is sixth in the committee’s rankings but 34th in SP+. The Wildcats have three one-score SEC wins under first-year coach Will Stein, and they rank 42nd in points per drive and 88th in points allowed per drive. Their third-down numbers are worse, 114th on offense at 33.7% and 131st on defense at 48.3%.

Notre Dame has the opposite problem. The Irish are third in SP+ and allow 20-yard plays less often than any defense in the country, but they convert just 43.5% of third downs even though 73% of them need 6 yards or fewer. On defense, they rank 76th in third-down stops despite opponents needing 7 or more yards on 61% of those snaps.

The CFP rankings reward wins first, and Kentucky keeps finding ways to get them. The Wildcats are also 131st in the country at getting opponents off the field on third down.