College Football Ohio State vs. USC: Prediction Market Preview

The Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Los Angeles for an important Big Ten matchup against the USC Trojans on Saturday night.

Ohio State enters 6–1 overall and 4–0 in conference play after defeating Indiana 19–15. USC is 6–2 overall and 3–2 in the Big Ten after suffering a disappointing 24–7 loss at Wisconsin.

The Buckeyes remain favored despite losing starting quarterback Julian Sayin to an injury. Ryan Day must decide whether Luke Fahey, Tavien St. Clair or a combination of both quarterbacks gives Ohio State the better opportunity to remain unbeaten in conference play.

Game Information

• Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans
• Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
• Television: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock
• Records: Ohio State 6–1, USC 6–2
• Point spread: Ohio State -6.5
• Game total: Approximately 51.5 points

This is the first meeting between the programs as Big Ten opponents and their first matchup since 2017.

Prediction-market contract prices were checked on October 29, 2026, and may change as trading activity continues.

Current Ohio State vs. USC Prediction Market Prices

The following market refers to the team that will be declared the winner of the Ohio State–USC game.

Polymarket displayed Ohio State’s outright-winner contract at approximately 69¢, representing an implied probability near 69%. Kalshi placed Ohio State slightly higher at approximately 70¢, with USC available near 30¢ or 31¢.

The point spread has moved between Ohio State -6.5 and -7.5. Because the difference between those numbers could become important, participants should confirm the exact contract terms before making a purchase.

Ohio State Matchup Preview

Ohio State has won five consecutive games since suffering a 24–23 loss at Texas.

The Buckeyes defeated Indiana despite losing Sayin and receiving only 78 rushing yards from their offense. Ohio State’s defense protected the lead and reinforced its position as the most dependable unit in this matchup.

Sayin’s injury creates the biggest question. Fahey has completed nine of 13 passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. St. Clair has completed five of seven attempts for 52 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Neither quarterback has started a college game. Day may use both players until one establishes control of the offense.

Ohio State can reduce the pressure by emphasizing running back Bo Jackson, who leads the team with 516 rushing yards. Ja’Kobi Jackson remains unavailable after undergoing foot surgery.

The Buckeyes must also create manageable opportunities for Jeremiah Smith. The star receiver has produced 52 receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quick passes, screens and play-action throws can get Smith involved without requiring the new quarterback to make difficult downfield reads.

Ohio State’s defense is allowing only 13.4 points and 264.3 yards per game. That unit should keep the Buckeyes competitive even if the offense starts slowly.

Ohio State’s Keys to the Game

• Protect Fahey and St. Clair.
• Establish Jackson early.
• Create simple touches for Smith.
• Avoid the turnovers that nearly cost Ohio State against Indiana.
• Pressure USC quarterback Jayden Maiava.
• Prevent explosive passes.

USC Matchup Preview

USC must recover from its worst offensive performance of the season.

The Trojans finished with minus-18 rushing yards against Wisconsin after accounting for sacks. Maiava completed 31 of 50 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while being sacked five times.

Before that loss, USC had demonstrated significant offensive potential. The Trojans defeated Penn State 31–23 on the road and enter this game averaging 32.8 points and 434.8 yards.

Maiava has thrown for 2,303 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. His experience gives USC an important advantage against Ohio State’s uncertain quarterback situation.

Running back King Miller has produced 603 yards and four touchdowns. USC must establish Miller to prevent Ohio State from concentrating entirely on pressuring Maiava.

Defensively, the Trojans must contain Smith. USC will likely change coverages and provide safety help, forcing Ohio State’s other receivers to create separation.

USC’s Keys to the Game

• Protect Maiava after allowing five sacks at Wisconsin.
• Establish Miller and create offensive balance.
• Pressure Ohio State’s inexperienced quarterbacks.
• Prevent Smith from creating explosive plays.
• Produce at least one turnover.
• Use the Coliseum crowd to create communication problems.

Prediction Market No. 1: Outright Winner

Ohio State to Defeat USC

Ohio State’s approximately 69¢ outright-winner contract is the preferred prediction.

The Buckeyes have the stronger defense, the better offensive line and the most dangerous individual playmaker in Smith. Ohio State can protect its new quarterback by running Jackson and relying on its defense to control field position.

USC has the experience advantage at quarterback, but Maiava must respond after committing two turnovers and taking five sacks at Wisconsin.

The Coliseum environment should keep this competitive. However, Ohio State does not need Fahey or St. Clair to dominate. The Buckeyes need competent decision-making, ball security and several timely completions to Smith.

• Outright-winner prediction: Ohio State
• More favorable displayed price: Polymarket at approximately 69¢
• Primary reason: Ohio State’s defense is the most dependable unit in the matchup.

Prediction Market No. 2: Point Spread

USC +6.5

USC plus 6.5 points is the preferred point-spread prediction.

Ohio State should win, but asking the Buckeyes to create substantial separation with an inexperienced quarterback is difficult. Day may use a conservative approach built around defense, field position and the running game.

USC should also respond with greater urgency after its loss at Wisconsin. Maiava is experienced enough to play better, and the Trojans have enough receiving talent to produce several explosive completions.

The difference between USC +6.5 and USC +7.5 is significant. Participants should confirm the exact threshold because seven points could become the final margin.

• Point-spread prediction: USC +6.5
• Primary reason: Ohio State’s quarterback uncertainty should keep the game close.
• Important consideration: USC +7.5 would provide greater protection than +6.5.

Players to Watch

• Luke Fahey, Ohio State: The likely starter must protect the football.
• Tavien St. Clair, Ohio State: St. Clair could receive meaningful playing time.
• Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State: USC must prevent him from controlling the game.
• Bo Jackson, Ohio State: His rushing production can protect the new quarterback.
• Jayden Maiava, USC: The Trojans need a major response from their veteran passer.
• King Miller, USC: A productive running game would slow Ohio State’s pressure.

The Verdict

Ohio State remains the more likely outright winner because of its defense, offensive line and overall roster strength.

USC has a realistic opportunity to remain close. Maiava is the most experienced available quarterback, and the Coliseum should be a difficult environment for Ohio State’s new starter.

The preferred outright-winner prediction is Ohio State at approximately 69¢. The preferred point-spread prediction is USC plus 6.5 points.

Final Prediction

Ohio State 27, USC 23

• Outright-winner prediction: Ohio State
• Point-spread prediction: USC +6.5
• Projected market result: Ohio State wins, but USC finishes within the spread
• Biggest unknown: Ohio State’s quarterback rotation

Prediction market trading involves financial risk and may not be appropriate for everyone. Contract prices can change before the game, and participants can lose the full amount used to purchase a contract.