College Football Baylor vs Arizona State: Prediction Market Preview

The Baylor Bears travel to Tempe for an important Big 12 matchup against the Arizona State Sun Devils tonight. Baylor enters the game 3–1 and riding a three-game winning streak, while Arizona State is 2–1 after defeating Kansas in its conference opener.

The Bears defeated Colorado 23–13 last Saturday, with their defense recording five sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Arizona State had an extra week to prepare after beating Kansas 24–17 at Wembley Stadium in London.

Arizona State is favored at Mountain America Stadium. That creates two compelling event-contract opportunities: the outright winner and the point spread.

Game Information

• Matchup: Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
• Television: ESPN
• Records: Baylor 3–1, Arizona State 2–1
• Conference records: Baylor 1–0, Arizona State 1–0
• Point spread: Arizona State -3.5
• Game total: Approximately 48.5 points

ESPN will broadcast the game nationally. Arizona State lists the local kickoff for 7:30 p.m. Arizona time, which corresponds to 10:30 p.m. ET.

Current Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction Market Prices

The following market refers to the team that will be declared the winner of the Baylor–Arizona State game.

These percentages and contract prices can move as people buy, sell and trade event contracts. Participants should check the available market immediately before making a purchase.

Arizona State’s outright-winner contract was displayed at approximately 63¢ during the latest market review, representing an implied probability near 63%. Baylor’s corresponding position was available at approximately 38¢.

The point-spread markets were considerably closer. Polymarket displayed Baylor +3.5 near 52¢, while Kalshi listed the same position at approximately 53¢. Arizona State -3.5 was available near 52¢ on both prediction market sites.

Arizona State’s position as the home favorite reflects its defensive strength, additional preparation time and recent success in close games. Baylor’s three-game winning streak and improved defense explain why the market has moved toward the Bears since the opening prices were released.

Baylor Bears Matchup Preview

Baylor enters its first true road game of the season with momentum and one of the Big 12’s most improved defensive units.

The Bears have held all four opponents below 20 points, their longest such streak since 2005. That defense delivered another impressive performance against Colorado, producing five sacks, 13 tackles for loss, six pass breakups and a fumble recovery.

First-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has built a deep defensive front capable of rotating players without sacrificing pressure. That depth will be particularly important against an Arizona State offense featuring a productive quarterback and several dangerous receivers.

Baylor’s offensive situation is less settled.

DJ Lagway is unavailable, leaving Nate Bennett to handle the starting quarterback responsibilities. Bennett enters the matchup with 567 passing yards, while Gavin Freeman leads the receiving corps with 364 yards. Dawson Pendergrass has provided stability on the ground with 287 rushing yards.

Bennett does not need to carry the offense for Baylor to remain competitive. The Bears need him to protect the football, complete manageable throws and avoid giving Arizona State short fields.

Pendergrass could become the most important player in Baylor’s offensive game plan. An effective running game would reduce the pressure on Bennett, keep Arizona State’s offense on the sideline and prevent the Sun Devils’ pass rush from controlling obvious passing situations.

The Bears must also convert their scoring opportunities. Baylor lost its opener to Auburn 17–16 after coming up short on a late two-point conversion. The three-game winning streak that followed showed the team’s ability to recover, but another close game will place significant pressure on every red-zone possession.

Baylor is only a few plays away from entering this matchup undefeated. The Bears have the defensive talent to make Arizona State uncomfortable, but the offense must provide enough support to prevent that effort from being wasted.

Arizona State Sun Devils Matchup Preview

Arizona State returns home after an unusual opening month that included a trip to Texas A&M, an international game in London and a bye week.

The Sun Devils defeated Kansas 24–17 at Wembley Stadium to open Big 12 play. They are attempting to begin conference competition 2–0 for the second consecutive season, something Arizona State has accomplished in back-to-back years only once since joining the Pac-10 in 1978.

Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley has given Kenny Dillingham a productive new starting quarterback.

Boley has completed 53 of 84 passes for 736 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions through three games. He also added an important fourth-quarter rushing touchdown against Kansas.

His most dangerous target has been Reed Harris. The receiver has accumulated 374 yards and five touchdown catches while averaging nearly 20 yards per reception. Harris has already recorded nine receptions covering at least 20 yards, making him Arizona State’s clearest path to explosive offensive plays.

Arizona State has also remained committed to the running game. The Sun Devils are averaging approximately 166 rushing yards per game and have surpassed 100 rushing yards in 32 of their 43 games under Dillingham.

The biggest concern is an inexperienced offensive line facing Baylor’s aggressive defensive front. Arizona State’s current roster entered the season with substantially fewer combined starts than last year’s group. Baylor will attempt to exploit that inexperience with pressure, movement and frequent substitutions.

The Sun Devils’ defense provides an important advantage. Arizona State has allowed opponents to convert only 28.3% of their combined third- and fourth-down attempts. The unit has also surrendered approximately 124 rushing yards per game.

Those numbers suggest Baylor may struggle to sustain long drives, particularly if Bennett repeatedly faces third-and-long situations.

Prediction Market No. 1: Outright Winner

Arizona State to defeat Baylor

Arizona State’s approximately 63¢ winner contract is the preferred outright position.

The Sun Devils have the more proven starting quarterback, the most dangerous individual receiver and home-field advantage. Arizona State also had an additional week to recover and prepare after its trip to London.

Baylor’s defense should keep the game competitive. The Bears have not allowed any opponent to reach 20 points this season, and their defensive front is capable of disrupting Arizona State’s inexperienced offensive line.

The difference should be Arizona State’s ability to create explosive plays.

Boley has thrown nine touchdown passes through three games, while Harris has consistently produced gains of 20 yards or more. Baylor may force the Sun Devils into several difficult situations, but Arizona State is more likely to convert a broken play or coverage mistake into a touchdown.

The Sun Devils have also performed exceptionally well in close games. Arizona State is 11–2 over the last two seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer. Fifteen of Dillingham’s 24 victories at Arizona State have been decided by 10 points or fewer.

That experience matters in a matchup projected to remain competitive into the fourth quarter.

Prediction Market No. 2: Point Spread

Baylor +3.5

Baylor plus 3.5 points is the preferred point-spread position.

Arizona State should have enough offensive playmaking ability to win at home, but Baylor’s defensive performance makes it difficult to support the Sun Devils beyond a field goal.

The Bears have allowed fewer than 20 points in four consecutive games. Their ability to pressure the quarterback without constantly sending additional defenders should help Baylor limit Harris’ opportunities down the field.

Baylor also demonstrated that it can remain competitive in this matchup last season. Arizona State needed a 43-yard field goal from Jesus Gomez as time expired to escape Waco with a 27–24 victory. The Sun Devils lead the all-time series 2–0, but last year’s result showed how little separates these teams.

The extra half-point is important. A three-point Arizona State victory would allow Baylor’s +3.5 contract to resolve successfully even though the Sun Devils won the game outright.

Baylor’s offensive limitations create risk. Bennett must avoid turnovers and give his defense reasonable field position. If Arizona State produces an early defensive touchdown or multiple short fields, the Bears may struggle to keep pace.

However, the projected game total suggests a limited number of possessions. In a lower-scoring matchup, receiving more than a field goal becomes particularly valuable because every possession carries greater importance.

A narrow Arizona State victory is the most likely outcome. Baylor’s defense should prevent the Sun Devils from creating enough separation to finish beyond the spread.

Players to Watch

Cutter Boley, Arizona State quarterback

Boley has thrown nine touchdown passes through three games. He must handle Baylor’s pressure, avoid negative plays and continue finding Harris for explosive completions.

Reed Harris, Arizona State wide receiver

Harris enters the game with 374 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Baylor’s secondary must prevent him from changing the matchup with a long scoring reception.

Nate Bennett, Baylor quarterback

Bennett is responsible for keeping Baylor’s offense functional while Lagway is unavailable. The Bears need him to protect the football and convert enough third downs to keep Arizona State’s offense on the sideline.

Dawson Pendergrass, Baylor running back

Pendergrass gives Baylor its clearest path toward controlling the tempo. A productive rushing performance would take pressure off Bennett and allow the Bears to shorten the game.

Gavin Freeman, Baylor wide receiver

Freeman leads Baylor with 364 receiving yards. He must provide Bennett with a dependable target, particularly when Arizona State brings pressure.

Baylor’s defensive front

The Bears produced five sacks and 13 tackles for loss against Colorado. Another disruptive performance would give Baylor an opportunity to win outright.

The Verdict

Arizona State enters this game rested, playing at home and carrying an important advantage at quarterback.

Boley has given the Sun Devils an explosive passing element, and his connection with Harris creates the biggest individual matchup problem in the game. Arizona State’s defense has also been excellent on third and fourth downs, which could expose Baylor’s offensive limitations.

Baylor should not be dismissed.

The Bears are 3–1, have won three consecutive games and have not allowed an opponent to score 20 points. Their defensive front is capable of disrupting Arizona State and keeping the score within one possession throughout the night.

The preferred outright position is Arizona State at approximately 63¢. The preferred point-spread position is Baylor plus 3.5 points, with Polymarket displaying the slightly lower purchase price during the latest review.

Final Prediction

Arizona State 24, Baylor 21

• Outright-winner prediction: Arizona State
• Point-spread prediction: Baylor +3.5
• Projected market result: Arizona State wins, but Baylor finishes within the spread
• Preferred outright contract: Arizona State at approximately 63¢
• Preferred point-spread contract: Baylor +3.5 at approximately 52¢
• Most important matchup: Baylor’s defensive front against Arizona State’s offensive line
• Biggest question: Whether Bennett can generate enough offense to support Baylor’s defense

Prediction market trading involves financial risk and may not be appropriate for everyone. Contract prices can change before the game, and participants can lose the full amount used to purchase a contract.