CJ Carr Takes Over as Heisman Race Favorite After Miami Win

CJ Carr was a long shot in the Heisman race a week ago. BetMGM listed the Notre Dame quarterback at +1200 the Sunday before facing No. 1 Miami, and by Sunday morning he was +120, the new favourite.

The rest of the market fell in line. FanDuel had Carr at +140 on Sunday, and DraftKings had him at +220 on Tuesday, just ahead of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at +250 and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith at +280.

Carr went 29-for-40 for 319 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in a 31-24 win, and the first half was close to flawless. He completed 18 of 26 passes for 205 yards and two scores before the break, while Mensah went 6-of-12 for 74 yards.

Why the Heisman race started over

Carr also had help from the injury report. Smith led the Heisman power rankings in late October, but his production has slowed since Ohio State lost quarterback Julian Sayin, and the Buckeyes now have three losses. Miami receiver Malachi Toney suffered a high ankle sprain in practice and will miss a few weeks, which knocked him off the BetMGM board.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has slid to 17th in QBR, and Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has barely played in the past month because of an injury. Mensah took the biggest hit of the group, since team success has always carried weight in the Heisman race and Miami picked up its first loss.

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly doubled the points in his weekly Heisman ranking this week, so first place now earns 20, and Week 10 produced a crowded top 10.

• Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (29-for-40, 319 yards, 3 TD against Miami)
• Tennessee LB Arion Carter (13 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks against Kentucky)
• Oklahoma State RB Caleb Hawkins (175 rushing yards, 3 TD, plus a receiving TD against Kansas State)
• Texas Tech QB Tommy Castellanos (362 passing yards, 5 TD, plus 124 non-sack rushing yards against West Virginia)
• West Virginia QB Michael Hawkins Jr. (303 passing yards, 1TD, 107 non-sack rushing yards, 3 rushing TD against Texas Tech)
• Duke RB Nate Sheppard (18 carries, 217 yards, 3 TD against NC State)
• SMU QB Kevin Jennings (350 passing yards, 4 TD, 1 INT against Virginia Tech)
• Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker (313 passing yards, 4 TD, plus a rushing TD against Kansas State)
• Alabama QB Keelon Russell (206 passing yards, 3 TD against LSU)
• Auburn LB Shadarius Toodle (11 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 3 sacks against Arkansas)

CJ Carr is winning without Gaudy numbers

Carr’s case leans on efficiency more than volume. Notre Dame asks him to drop back about 30 times a game, and his numbers project to roughly 3,100 passing yards and 30 touchdowns over 13 games. He ranks eighth nationally in QBR at 84.4.

Those numbers look a lot like two recent quarterbacks who did not win. Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke threw for 3,042 yards and 29 touchdowns with an 85.1 QBR in 2024 and finished ninth in the Heisman voting. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord posted 3,170 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an 83.8 QBR in 2023 and missed the top 10.

Carr’s edge lives around the box score. He is nearly impossible to sack; he has won 18 of his past 19 starts, and the Miami game marked the seventh time he has thrown at least three touchdown passes.

The Big 12 put up video-game numbers

If Carr is the efficient pick, the Big 12 supplied the loud ones. Texas Tech beat West Virginia 53-48 in Lubbock, and both quarterbacks landed in Connelly’s top five. Texas Tech quarterback Tommy Castellanos threw five touchdown passes, and West Virginia quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. ran for three scores.

Michael Hawkins has topped 90 non-sack rushing yards in every game this season and gone over 300 combined yards five times, three of them in losses. He also leads Connelly’s season-long points race, which tells you how scattered this Heisman race has become.

Oklahoma State brought two names to the party in a 66-28 win over Kansas State.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw four touchdown passes, ran for another and caught one, making him the first FBS player with that combination since Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong in 2021.

Running back Caleb Hawkins has been just as hard to ignore, averaging 26.3 touches and 226.5 yards from scrimmage over his last four games.

“Going out there, I just feel like I have to take advantage of the opportunity that I’m given,” Caleb Hawkins said after the win.

A linebacker and a Duke running back joined the mix

Tennessee linebacker Arion Carter’s season started with a two-game NCAA suspension over a $427 flight an agent paid for during his pre-draft process. He paid it back after withdrawing from the draft, and against Kentucky he played like a man making up for lost time.

Duke running back Nate Sheppard ran for 217 yards in a 41-3 rout of NC State, with 168 of those yards coming before halftime. He has scored in every game this season and topped 120 yards from scrimmage eight times.

The points race tells a different story

Connelly’s season-long points race, scored each week the way Formula 1 awards points, has a very different top 10.

Carr sits seventh with 22 points, and Mensah is all the way down at 12th. Utah quarterback Devon Dampier and Mestemaker carry longer odds at +1600 and +1550, and Russell sits at +2400 despite sharing the points lead.

Carr’s best comparison might be the man who won it last year. Fernando Mendoza had 2,124 passing yards through nine games last season, 44 fewer than Carr has now, though he had more touchdown passes, more rushing yards, and a 90.0 QBR. Mendoza won the Heisman.