
Northwestern is 2-0 and coming off a 41-7 win over Colorado, while Indiana enters 3-0 and has allowed only 16 points all season. The Hoosiers are looking to extend their national leading winning streak to 20 wins this evening in Bloomington.
This is the obvious starting point. Chiles is a legitimate dual-threat and has already shown against Indiana that he can extend plays with his legs. Through two games, he has thrown for 514 yards and four TDs without an interception while adding three rushing TDs. Chip Kelly has built an offense that lets Chiles work comfortably, with formations that run triple option, zone read, or speed option. They also like to move the pocket by getting Chiles out on boots through play-action.
Watch for: Indiana’s rush lanes and backside discipline. The Hoosiers can’t simply win the pass rush. They have to keep Chiles from escaping and turning broken plays into explosive runs or extended passing opportunities. Look for Indiana to simulate pressure defensively with a mix of edge pressure and interior pressure to collapse the pocket, which will force Chiles to make a quick decision with the ball. Northwestern will want to stay out of 2nd-and-7-plus or 3rd-and-long to stay ahead of the chains and be successful. Chiles weakness is being a drop-back quarterback that has to go past his first initial read.
Northwestern has been running the ball at a high rate, and Curt Cignetti specifically emphasized that stopping the run is where this matchup begins. Northwestern is averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game. However, from the film, I believe that Northwestern’s weakness is their interior offensive line. They do not run any power/counter run schemes where there are pulling guards. I look for Indiana’s interior defensive line, led by Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino, to wreak havoc this evening has stall the Wildcats offensive game plan.
Watch for: Defensive-line penetration, linebacker fits, and whether Indiana can consistently win first down. If Northwestern is forced into obvious passing situations, the matchup changes dramatically. Bryant Haines will look to take advantage of these opportunities to make decision-making difficult for Aiden Chiles.
Northwestern has demonstrated the ability to create big plays, particularly through the passing game. Cignetti specifically noted a Northwestern receiver averaging 25 yards per catch. Additionally, Chip Kelly likes to use a lot of motion and different formations to put defense in difficult coverage decisions. Northwestern loves to get their running backs involved in the passing game. It will be imperative that the defense is continuously communicating responsibilities in coverage.
Watch for: Safety depth, cornerback leverage and communication when Northwestern uses motion, play action, and multiple formations. IU doesn’t necessarily need to eliminate every completion—it needs to prevent the 40-50 yard plays that flip field position. Northwestern scored on three different wheel route combinations against Colorado.
We’ve talked about this with your previous IU previews, and I think it remains one of the most interesting things to watch.
Hoover has been extremely productive through three games, but Big Ten defenses are going to challenge his decision-making differently than the first three opponents did. Indiana has already shown the ability to hit explosive throws. Hoover will need to continue to show that he can make the open intermediate completion when Northwestern takes away the deep ball. Northwestern has 16 pass break ups between two games which is a high number (13 against SDSU and three against Colorado). Northwestern likes to jump routes and be aggressive on the back end. Hoover will need to continue to make the correct reads and take care of the ball in order for the offense to be successful.
Watch for: Does Hoover work through his progressions, identify the coverage and take the 8–15 yard completion rather than forcing the shot downfield?
This could ultimately determine how comfortable the entire offense looks.
Indiana has been able to play balanced football through three games, and the Hoosiers have been extremely efficient offensively. Northwestern presents a much different test up front than North Texas, Howard, or Western Kentucky. I am watching for the offensive lines to clean up some mistakes from the previous game and play with more urgency in their first conference game this season. The run game is the key to keeping the offense a head of the chains and staying out of difficult 3rd down situations. Indiana was 2-10 (20%) on 3rd down in their last game. I look for this to improve against Northwestern.
Watch for: The first two quarters. Can IU consistently create movement in the run game and keep Hoover clean? If the answer is yes, it allows Indiana to dictate tempo rather than letting Northwestern’s defense dictate the game.
What does Indiana look like when the competition finally looks like Big Ten football?
The Hoosiers have dominated their first three opponents, winning 145-16. Northwestern, meanwhile, enters with a 2-0 record and a 41-7 statement win over Colorado.
Friday night should give us our first real look at how Indiana’s defensive discipline, quarterback decision-making, offensive line and ability to prevent explosive plays translate against a Big Ten opponent. I have Indiana winning 35-14 at home against Northwestern.
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