Ball State @ No. 1 Ohio State Football Game Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, September 5, 2026 Time: 12:30 PM ET Location: Ohio Stadium — Columbus, Ohio TV: Big Ten Network Tickets: As low as $50 Betting Line: Ohio State -50.5 Over/Under: 56.5

Ball State vs. Ohio State Prediction & Matchup Preview

No. 1 Ohio State begins its 2026 season Saturday afternoon against Ball State at Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes enter as massive 50.5-point favorites in the first-ever meeting between the programs. Ohio State has won 26 consecutive season openers and is 39-1 all-time against current MAC opponents.

The Buckeyes return one of college football’s most dangerous quarterback-receiver combinations in Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. Sayin was a Heisman Trophy finalist last season after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns while leading the nation with a 77-percent completion rate.

Smith is already rewriting Ohio State’s receiving record book and remains one of the nation’s premier offensive weapons. Combined with running back Bo Jackson, who rushed for 1,090 yards last season, the Buckeyes possess enough firepower to overwhelm most defenses.

Ohio State’s defense could create an even bigger mismatch. The Buckeyes allowed only 9.3 points and 219.1 total yards per game in 2025, leading the nation in scoring and total defense. They surrendered just 129.7 passing yards per contest.

Ball State begins its second season under head coach Mike Uremovich with Keldric Luster taking over at quarterback. The Texas State transfer has appeared in nine college games but enters the season with only 12 career passing attempts. His mobility could become particularly important against Ohio State’s pass rush.

Ball State’s goal will be to protect the football, create manageable third downs and prevent Ohio State from producing short fields. The Cardinals face an enormous talent disadvantage, however, and Ohio State’s depth should become increasingly noticeable as the game progresses.

🔥 Top 4 Expanded Prop Bets

The thresholds below are recommended betting targets. Confirm official sportsbook player props before wagering.

Prop Bet #1: Julian Sayin Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Sayin Over 2.5 Passing TDs

• 32 TDs in 2025
• Elite Efficiency
• Huge Favorite

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Sayin threw 32 touchdowns last season and now returns with Smith and several other elite weapons.

Ohio State should spend much of the afternoon in favorable scoring situations, and Ryan Day may want Sayin to establish an early rhythm before the Buckeyes’ upcoming trip to Texas.

Three touchdown passes could come before the starters leave the game.

Prop Bet #2: Jeremiah Smith Anytime Touchdown

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Smith Anytime Touchdown

• Elite WR
• Red-Zone Threat
• Big-Play Ability

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Smith has become the centerpiece of Ohio State’s passing attack and already owns several program records for reaching receiving milestones faster than any Buckeye before him.

Ball State faces the difficult task of matching his size, speed and route-running ability. Expect Ohio State to look toward Smith early, particularly in the red zone.

Prop Bet #3: Bo Jackson Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Jackson Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

• 1,090 Yards in 2025
• Featured Back
• Favorable Game Script

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Jackson rushed for 1,090 yards last season and enters 2026 as one of the Big Ten’s top returning running backs.

With Ohio State favored by more than seven touchdowns, the Buckeyes should lean heavily on their running game after establishing a lead.

Jackson may not need a massive workload to clear this number if Ohio State’s offensive line consistently creates running lanes.

Prop Bet #4: Ball State Under 7.5 Team Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Ball State Under 7.5 Points

• Elite OSU Defense
• Inexperienced QB
• Major Talent Gap

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Ohio State allowed fewer than 10 points per game last season and was dominant against both the run and pass.

That presents an enormous challenge for Luster in his first start for Ball State. The Cardinals may struggle to sustain drives, particularly if Ohio State forces obvious passing situations.

A shutout is possible, making Ball State’s team-total under worth considering.

Players to Watch

Julian Sayin — Ohio State: Heisman finalist coming off a 3,610-yard, 32-touchdown season.

Jeremiah Smith — Ohio State: Superstar receiver capable of turning almost any reception into a touchdown.

Bo Jackson — Ohio State: Powerful running back who gives the Buckeyes balance alongside their elite passing game.

Keldric Luster — Ball State: Texas State transfer named Ball State’s starting quarterback after preseason camp.

Jamarion McDougle — Ball State: Veteran receiver who was identified as one of Ball State’s top wideouts during spring practice.

Ben Marsh — Ball State: Veteran defensive end who will be asked to help pressure Sayin and disrupt Ohio State’s powerful offense.

The Verdict

Prediction

Ohio State Buckeyes 59, Ball State Cardinals 3

Best Bets

Ohio State -50.5 Over 56.5 Total Points Julian Sayin Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns Ball State Under 7.5 Team Points

The 50.5-point spread is enormous, but so is the talent gap. Ball State’s biggest concern is generating enough offense to prevent Ohio State from controlling field position throughout the afternoon.

Sayin, Smith and Jackson should help Ohio State build a commanding advantage early, while the Buckeyes’ defense makes life extremely difficult for Luster.

Expect Ryan Day to eventually turn to his reserves, but Ohio State’s depth should allow the scoring to continue.

Prediction: Ohio State 59, Ball State 3.

Betting lines and prop availability can change before kickoff. Confirm final odds, injuries and player availability before wagering.