Ball State at Liberty 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, September 19, 2026 Time: 4:00 PM ET Location: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia TV/Streaming: ESPN+ Tickets: Official Liberty listings currently start at $37+ Line: Liberty -14.5 Over/Under: 49.5

Ball State and Liberty both enter Saturday at 1-1, but they arrive after dramatically different Week 2 victories.

Ball State bounced back from its 56-3 opening loss at Ohio State by beating Stony Brook 41-17. Quarterback Keldric Luster completed 27 of 32 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns, while TJ Horton rushed for 125 yards. The Cardinals controlled the game for most of the afternoon and scored 20 fourth-quarter points.

Liberty escaped Gardner-Webb 24-23 after trailing in the fourth quarter. Starter Deshawn Purdie threw for 122 yards and a touchdown before backup Jaylen Henderson entered and delivered the decisive 54-yard touchdown pass to Darius Copeland. Liberty rushed for 193 yards on 45 carries.

The supplied spread of Liberty -14.5 remains widely available. The total is more fluid: one current odds source lists 50.5, while others have moved higher, so this preview uses your supplied 49.5 as the betting baseline.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props may not be offered for this matchup. The numbers below are projected betting targets.

Prop Bet #1: Keldric Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards

• 256 Yards Week 2
• 27-of-32 Passing
• Likely Trailing Game Script

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Luster looked dramatically more comfortable against Stony Brook, completing 84.4% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns.

If Liberty builds the type of lead the spread suggests, Ball State should have to throw throughout the second half.

Projected Bet: Keldric Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: TJ Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

• 125 Yards Week 2
• 54-Yard TD Run
• Ball State’s Top Back

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Horton broke out with 125 rushing yards against Stony Brook, including a career-long 54-yard touchdown run.

Liberty allowed James Madison to average more than five yards per carry in Week 1 and has not looked dominant defensively.

Projected Bet: TJ Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Makai Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

• 142 Yards Through Two Games
• TD in Both Games
• Liberty’s Leading Receiver

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Jackson leads Liberty with 142 receiving yards through two games. He caught a 34-yard touchdown at James Madison and then scored on a 65-yard reception against Gardner-Webb.

He is Liberty’s most dangerous explosive receiving option.

Projected Bet: Makai Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #4: Over 49.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Over 49.5 Points

• Ball State Scored 41
• Liberty Defensive Questions
• Both Teams Showing Explosive Plays

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Ball State showed legitimate offensive improvement in Week 2, producing 41 points after scoring only three at Ohio State.

Liberty has allowed 20 and 23 points in its first two games, while its offense has enough rushing depth and big-play ability to push into the high 20s or low 30s.

Bet: Over 49.5 Points

Players to Watch

Keldric Luster, QB, Ball State: Coming off 256 yards and three touchdown passes.

TJ Horton, RB, Ball State: Produced 125 yards rushing against Stony Brook.

Tate Hoover, TE, Ball State: Caught Luster’s first touchdown pass against Stony Brook.

Deshawn Purdie, QB, Liberty: Has thrown for 352 yards and two touchdowns through two games without an interception.

Makai Jackson, WR, Liberty: Leads the Flames with 142 receiving yards.

Kam Davis, RB, Liberty: Leads Liberty with 118 rushing yards through two games.

Keys to the Game

Ball State

The Cardinals need the Week 2 version of Luster.

Ball State cannot become one-dimensional, so Horton must establish the run and help keep Liberty’s offense on the sideline. Defensively, preventing Jackson from creating explosive plays is essential.

Liberty

Liberty needs more consistency at quarterback after Purdie struggled against Gardner-Webb and Henderson provided the decisive fourth-quarter spark.

The Flames should also continue leaning on their rushing game after improving from 91 yards against James Madison to 193 against Gardner-Webb.

Betting Prediction

Liberty owns home field and more overall offensive depth, but 14.5 points feels aggressive considering the Flames needed a late touchdown to beat Gardner-Webb by one.

Ball State’s 41-17 victory over Stony Brook showed meaningful offensive progress, particularly from Luster and Horton.

Liberty should win, but the Cardinals have enough offense to remain within two touchdowns.

The Verdict

Expect Liberty to establish the run and create several explosive plays through Jackson, while Ball State answers with a much more confident passing attack than it showed at Ohio State.

The Flames eventually pull away, but not enough to comfortably cover more than two touchdowns.

Final Score Prediction: Liberty 31, Ball State 23

Best Bet: Ball State +14.5

Total Pick: Over 49.5

Moneyline: Liberty

Top Player Prop: Keldric Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards

Additional Props: TJ Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards | Makai Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards