Ball State at Liberty 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets
Ball State at Liberty 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets
Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time:
4:00 PM ET
Location:
Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia
TV/Streaming:
ESPN+
Tickets:
Official Liberty listings currently start at $37+
Line:
Liberty -14.5
Over/Under:
49.5
Ball State and Liberty both enter Saturday at
1-1, but they arrive after dramatically different Week 2 victories.
Ball State bounced back from its 56-3 opening loss at Ohio State by beating Stony Brook
41-17. Quarterback
Keldric Luster
completed 27 of 32 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns, while TJ Horton rushed for
125 yards. The Cardinals controlled the game for most of the afternoon and scored 20 fourth-quarter points.
Liberty escaped Gardner-Webb
24-23
after trailing in the fourth quarter. Starter Deshawn Purdie threw for 122 yards and a touchdown before backup Jaylen Henderson entered and delivered the decisive 54-yard touchdown pass to Darius Copeland. Liberty rushed for 193 yards on 45 carries.
The supplied spread of
Liberty -14.5
remains widely available. The total is more fluid: one current odds source lists 50.5, while others have moved higher, so this preview uses your supplied
49.5
as the betting baseline.
Top Four Prop Bets
Exact player props may not be offered for this matchup. The numbers below are projected betting targets.
Prop Bet #1: Keldric Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards
256 Yards Week 2
27-of-32 Passing
Likely Trailing Game Script
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Luster looked dramatically more comfortable against Stony Brook, completing
84.4% of his passes
while throwing three touchdowns.
If Liberty builds the type of lead the spread suggests, Ball State should have to throw throughout the second half.
Projected Bet: Keldric Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards
Prop Bet #2: TJ Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
FanDuel
4.6/5
Tip: Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
125 Yards Week 2
54-Yard TD Run
Ball State’s Top Back
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Horton broke out with
125 rushing yards
against Stony Brook, including a career-long 54-yard touchdown run.
Liberty allowed James Madison to average more than five yards per carry in Week 1 and has not looked dominant defensively.
Projected Bet: TJ Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
Prop Bet #3: Makai Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Caesars
4.4/5
Tip: Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
142 Yards Through Two Games
TD in Both Games
Liberty’s Leading Receiver
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Jackson leads Liberty with
142 receiving yards through two games. He caught a 34-yard touchdown at James Madison and then scored on a 65-yard reception against Gardner-Webb.
He is Liberty’s most dangerous explosive receiving option.
Projected Bet: Makai Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Prop Bet #4: Over 49.5 Points
BetMGM
4.5/5
Tip: Over 49.5 Points
Ball State Scored 41
Liberty Defensive Questions
Both Teams Showing Explosive Plays
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Ball State showed legitimate offensive improvement in Week 2, producing
41 points
after scoring only three at Ohio State.
Liberty has allowed 20 and 23 points in its first two games, while its offense has enough rushing depth and big-play ability to push into the high 20s or low 30s.
Bet: Over 49.5 Points
Players to Watch
Keldric Luster, QB, Ball State:
Coming off 256 yards and three touchdown passes.
TJ Horton, RB, Ball State:
Produced 125 yards rushing against Stony Brook.
Tate Hoover, TE, Ball State:
Caught Luster’s first touchdown pass against Stony Brook.
Deshawn Purdie, QB, Liberty:
Has thrown for
352 yards and two touchdowns
through two games without an interception.
Makai Jackson, WR, Liberty:
Leads the Flames with 142 receiving yards.
Kam Davis, RB, Liberty:
Leads Liberty with 118 rushing yards through two games.
Keys to the Game
Ball State
The Cardinals need the Week 2 version of Luster.
Ball State cannot become one-dimensional, so Horton must establish the run and help keep Liberty’s offense on the sideline. Defensively, preventing Jackson from creating explosive plays is essential.
Liberty
Liberty needs more consistency at quarterback after Purdie struggled against Gardner-Webb and Henderson provided the decisive fourth-quarter spark.
The Flames should also continue leaning on their rushing game after improving from
91 yards against James Madison to 193 against Gardner-Webb.
Betting Prediction
Liberty owns home field and more overall offensive depth, but
14.5 points feels aggressive
considering the Flames needed a late touchdown to beat Gardner-Webb by one.
Ball State’s 41-17 victory over Stony Brook showed meaningful offensive progress, particularly from Luster and Horton.
Liberty should win, but the Cardinals have enough offense to remain within two touchdowns.
The Verdict
Expect Liberty to establish the run and create several explosive plays through Jackson, while Ball State answers with a much more confident passing attack than it showed at Ohio State.
The Flames eventually pull away, but not enough to comfortably cover more than two touchdowns.
Final Score Prediction: Liberty 31, Ball State 23
Best Bet: Ball State +14.5
Total Pick: Over 49.5
Moneyline: Liberty
Top Player Prop: Keldric Luster Over 219.5 Passing Yards
Additional Props: TJ Horton Over 69.5 Rushing Yards | Makai Jackson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
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