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No. 10 Alabama takes on No. 11 Ole Miss in a huge SEC matchup at Vaught Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss., on Saturday.
Game time is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will be televised by CBS. These are the stakes for this highly-anticipated showdown.
Ole Miss (8-1) is still in the running to be in the College Football Playoff. He was previously the offensive coordinator for Bama in 2014-16. Ole Miss needs help but they are still in the playoff hunt.
Alabama (7-2) can’t say that right now. The Crimson Tide fell to LSU in Week 10. It would be a near-miracle for Alabama to make the playoffs. This is new territory for Nick Saban, long-time coach, and Bryce Young, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. It will be interesting to see their reaction on the road considering the Crimson Tide’s road woes in 2022.
Alabama has won six consecutive games in this series. This should make it the most exciting game on Week 11’s SEC schedule. Here are the details you need to bet on the Crimson Tide or Rebels.
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Alabama lost a regular season game for the eighth time during the CFP era. The Crimson Tide won the game that followed seven other losses by an average 23.9 points per match.
There are three trends you should know
Alabama’s trend has been negative this season, and this is their chance to change it. The Crimson Tide has been 2-2 S/U on the road and 1-3 ATS at home this season. They have outscored their opponents by 149 to 139. Alabama has been a 10-3 S/U road favorite since 2020. However, they are now 5-8ATS in those games.
Alabama lost a regular season game for the eighth time during the CFP era. The Crimson Tide won the game that followed seven other losses by an average 23.9 points per match.
Lane Kiffin has only been Ole Miss’ home underdog five times. The Rebels are currently 1-3 S/U in this situation. The Crimson Tide won Ole Miss’s last three matchups by an average 25 point margin.
Watch these three things
Ole Miss’s rushing attack. The Rebels are the SEC’s leading rushers with 267.4 yards per game. Quinshon Judkins (1.036 yards and 13 TDs) and Zach Evans (680 yards and 7 TDs) have been one of the most talented tag-team backfields. Will the Rebels be able to get on the ground and produce against an Alabama defense that is led by Will Anderson Jr. (13 TDs)? The Crimson Tide give 3.0 yards per carry. Ole Miss’ key issue will be how efficient quarterback Jaxson Dart (473 yards) is when he makes the option readings.
Alabama play calling.
How will Bill O’Brien attack Ole Miss’ defense? Bryce Young’s performance against the Rebels was modest last season, with 241 yards and two TDs. He also had an interception in a victory of 42-21. The Crimson Tide rushed for 210 yards and four TDs. Jahmyr Gibbs has been the center of the offense on the road. However, the Crimson Tide needs Ja’Corey Brooks (473 yards, 5 TDs, and 325 yards, respectively) to be more consistent.
Alabama miscues.
This is a broken record. Alabama is 124th in FBS, with 671 penalty yards and an average of 13 penalties for 103 yards on the road. These penalties proved costly in road losses to Tennessee, and LSU. In those losses, the Crimson Tide received seven pass interference calls. Ole Miss averages 61.6 penalty yards per game, which isn’t too bad, but it’s not as bad as the Crimson Tide’s mistakes, especially away.
It is important to remember that
The Rebels need to improve on third down in this match. Kiffin was criticized for making poor fourth-down decisions last year. The Rebels rank seventh in the FBS for third-down conversions (52.1), while Alabama (45.3) ranks 28th. However, the Crimson Tide ranks third in the country in defensive third down percentage (27.7). Ole Miss (39.0) ranks 62nd.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Tips
Ole Miss fans believed this was the Rebels’ season after an early season surge. The Rebels outscored their opponents by nearly 11 points per match.
Ole Miss has dominated on the ground this season. The thunder-and-lightning tandem of freshman Quinshon Judkins and TCU transfer Zach Evans have beat up on opposing defenses to the tune of over 1,700 rushing yards. Jaxson Dart, the quarterback, has been a great rushing player, adding 412 yards to the ground.
The Rebels ended the game with 390 yards of ground, and 530 yards total in their victory against the Aggies. It’s highly unlikely that they can replicate this feat against Will Anderson Jr. and the dominant Alabama defensive line.
This one will ultimately be decided in the trenches. The 2nd-ranked Rebels rushing attack meets the Crimson Tide’s 10th-ranked rush defense. Bettors should be cautious about backing Ole Miss at home. In their seven last home games, the Rebels have been just 1-6 against spread.
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The Crimson Tide has not lost two games before the post-season in a long time, Since 2010, Alabama has not lost three consecutive games. In 2022, don’t be surprised if that trend continues. After last week’s disappointment, Nick Saban will get his team back on track and ready for action.
Since the Heisman winner’s return from injury, Bryce Young has struggled to create momentum with his receivers. Bill O’Brien, the offensive coordinator, will instead be trying to exploit the weak Rebels’ rushing defense. Ole Miss is ranked 86th against the run and allows over 162 yards of rushing per game.
O’Brien should get the ball to Jahmyr Gibbs as soon as possible if Alabama is to win this game. Georgia Tech’s transfer has been difficult to deal with all season. Gibbs has been the Crimson Tide’s most dangerous weapon, he has rushed for 771 yards and scored six touchdowns this season on almost 7 yards per carry.
Nick Saban will want the Crimson Tide’s road woes to be solved. Alabama has lost the chance to win in Baton Rouge and Knoxville this season due to mental mistakes and penalties.
Betting the game
The spread of -11.5 for Obama makes this a challenging game to pick, but do you trust Ole Miss in a spot this big? I don’t, and I think Ole Miss will not be able to throw the ball well enough to keep up in this one. Take the Tide and give the -11.5.
Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 38 Ole Miss Rebels 20(take the Tide and give the 11.5 points)
Potential earnings
If you are betting on the Tide to cover, the payoff will be solid, not great, and I think the Tide will cover this game. For example, a few days before the game, the odds are averaging -114 if you are betting on the Tide to cover. If you bet 100 on the Tide -11.5, the payout would be around 88 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 88 for winning the bet.
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