The first game of the 2024 Big Ten Basketball season is intrigue, as the Iowa Hawkeyes host the Northwestern Wildcats. The Hawkeyes can score a lot of points in a hurry, but the non-conference schedule has been soft, so we are guessing a lot about how good they are. The Wildcats have also had a soft schedule, but they did play well in a close loss to a good Butler team. Tonight’s game will tell us a lot about both teams.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Point Spread: Iowa -5.5
Moneyline Northwestern +184
Moneyline Iowa -225
Over/Under 146.5
Road victories can be tough in college basketball, especially in the Big Ten Conference. But you should never underestimate your opponent; winning on the road requires perseverance, skill and perseverance if your goals include making it to March Madness!
Northwestern may find this challenge even harder, given Iowa’s superior scoring approach and experience.
Iowa currently averages 87.4 points per game and ranks 43rd nationally according to KenPom’s offensive-adjusted efficiency metric. Owen Freeman and Payton Sandford have returned, and Josh Dix and Brock Harding appear primed to progress.
Though I am concerned that Iowa’s defense being it is subpar at best, my primary worry lies with their depth. Aside from four players, they do not provide consistent and reliable play, which may prove a potential stumbling block when facing tough opponents on offense and defense alike.
And Iowa faltered against Utah State. Without discrediting them as an opponent, I understand their losses to Utah State can be somewhat excusable. Yet, their normal potent offense could only score 69 points and shoot 19% from three against an Aggie team that ranks just 51st on KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings.
Iowa has faced only one test this season: their NCAA basketball game at North Dakota.
Iowa should eventually improve their shooting in this game; rarely will you witness them shooting poorly from three.
Northwestern has competed against Dayton, Butler and UNLV, welcoming back key offensive player Brooks Barnhizer from an injury.
Nick Martinelli has been Northwestern’s leading scorer this year, averaging 20.3 points per game. Additionally, Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson remain on their roster, providing great chemistry under Chris Collins.
Though I have some long-term concerns with Iowa and like Northwestern’s roster, I still favor Iowa in their Big Ten opener at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Northwestern may struggle offensively and have trouble scoring enough points to cover the spread, but in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, fans should be loudly cheering!
Expect Iowa to not shoot 19% from three in this one.
Northwestern vs Iowa Moneyline
Stay off the money line for this game unless you are betting on Northwestern. If you are betting on Iowa, give the points. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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4.5/5
Tip: Bet Iowa -5.5
Hawkeyes can score points in bunches
Two experienced teams
Iowa pulls away in final minutes
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Northwestern vs Iowa Over/Under Analysis
I lean towards the over in this game as I think Iowas offense will get hot at some point and start to pull away. I look for a game played in the 70s so I am not betting too much either way on the over/under.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 146.5
Hawkeyes 10+ threes
Hawkeyes at home
Wildcats need to control the tempo
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Prediction: Iowa wins this one at home as they pull away late to cover. Iowa 79 Northwestern 70.
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