The Jayhawks look like the best team in the country on paper, but it’s early, and that’s paper. Michigan State doesn’t look to have the athletic ability that Kansas has, they do have Tom Izzo as a coach but will that be enough to overcome the talent difference in this game?
Michigan State Spartans vs Kansas Jayhawks
Point Spread: Kansas -6.5
Moneyline Kansas -275
Moneyline Michigan State +225
Over/Under 150.5
Kansas remains built around three veteran players—defensive star Dajuan Harris Jr., KJ Adams Jr., and All-American Hunter Dickinson—who remain its core.
Kansas gained instant title contention when Bill Self introduced shooting via the portal, and the trio of AJ Storr, Mayo, and Rylan Griffen instantly transformed them into title contenders. Kansas holds an overwhelming advantage when Dickinson pulls Michigan State’s slower bigs out to defend Kansas’ perimeter defense.
Dickinson is one of the nation’s premier passing bigs and consistently shoots 35% or better from 3-point range.
How will Jaxon Kohler and Szymon Zapala defend outside the arc? Probably not effectively — speed and defensive ability aren’t among their strong suits.
The Jayhawks can take advantage and force Tom Izzo to pull some of his more traditional bigs off the floor, leading him to switch to a smaller lineup that allows Dickinson more post-up opportunities.
Michigan State and Kansas’ rosters were constructed differently; Kansas relies heavily on transfers, while Michigan State brought in just two transfers – Frankie Fidler and Zapala.
One of the key differences for the Spartans lies in their inexperience at the point guard position. Jeremy Fears Jr. took over for former point guard AJ Hoggard and has done well so far, tossing 16 dimes in just two games—although he has yet to face an aggressive defender like Harris.
Will Fears be able to lead Izzo’s offense with Harris as his spear-carrier?
With Tyson Walker no longer around, Jaden Akins must step up as their top scoring option – and so far, that has happened as Akins leads the team with 16.5 points per game through two matches.
Akins must improve his 3-point shooting, something Michigan State has struggled to do through two games. Longer-term concerns about Michigan State’s shooting don’t exist, though, as Fidler, Booker, and Akins all possess capable shooting arms; perhaps they simply haven’t found their groove yet.
Fidler averaged 20 points per game at Omaha and could be key in unlocking perimeter shooting for Minnesota. His shot-creation and catch-and-shoot ability stood out in the Summit League.
Jase Richardson (Jason Richardson’s son), could become an equally critical piece of the Spartans lineup and might become their second scoring threat.
Jase is more than the son of a former college champion and long-time NBA player; he’s an impressive scorer, tallying double figures in his first two games.
Michigan State aims to win by using its defense, but that won’t be easy against Kansas.
Michigan State vs Kansas Moneyline
Moneyline value doesn’t exist in this game to me as I do not see a Spartans win and the odds on a Kansas win are not good enough to make a moneyline bet. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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4.5/5
Tip: Bet Kansas -6.5
Kansas is the deeper team
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Kansas will play fast
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Michigan State vs Kansas Over/Under Analysis
The over/under on this game is a tough pick. Both teams are very talented and score points in bunches. The Spartans will try to play this game at a slower pace and that will not work. Kansas will overwhelm the Spartans. I am going to bet the over but I am not betting a lot on it.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the over 150.5
High scoring game
Neutral site
Whoever controls the pace of the game wins
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Prediction: I expect a high-energy game and the team that controls the pace will win the game. The Jayhawks are experienced and talented and will pull away in the second half. Kansas 85 Michigan State 70
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