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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Betting Tips / Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Tips and Predictions 05/31/24

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Tips and Predictions 05/31/24

Baseball Betting Tips Β· - Β·

Publish Date: 05/31/2024
Fact checked by: Mark Lewis

The Chicago Cubs have been mired in an offensive slump since dropping their series with the Milwaukee Brewers, falling below.500 for the first time this year. To stay above water they will look to Javier Assad to continue his impressive start against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday; his peripheral metrics support his strong play starting for the Chicago Cubs.

Graham Ashcraft has not had as much luck on the mound. Although Ashcraft can keep the ball on the ground, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are well below average compared to Cubs righties; meanwhile Cincinnati bullpen has been exceptional recently.

Both this teams are struggling and this is a big series if these teams want to make a playoff push the way both were expected to before the season started.

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Reds vs Cubs

  • Run Line: Cubs -1.5
  • Moneyline Reds +130
  • Moneyline Cubs-154
  • Over/Under 8

These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 05/31/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Reds to Win

Ashcraft currently sports a 4.67 ERA and 4.50 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 10th percentile while his Hard-Hit Rate sits in the 13th. A ground ball rate in the 71st percentile should suffice; since Ashcraft has gone at least five innings in four of five May starts, this should prove sufficient to cover his innings total here.

The Cincinnati Reds have struggled mightily against righties this May, posting a 75 wRC+ with 8.3% walk rate and 25.7% strikeout rate that ranks second-to-last among MLB teams. Furthermore, only Will Benson was above.320 xwOBA against righties while Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candelario Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz underperformed significantly and will likely remain stagnant for an extended period of time.

Assad owns a 2.17 ERA against an expected 3.51 xERA. While some regression should occur, his expected numbers remain decent: his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate both rank among the middle range, as do his strikeout and walk rates; although his walk rate could use improvement overall he has enough weapons in his arsenal including his plus fastball that should get by this Reds lineup.

The Cubs have not fared much better against righties of late, posting a collective 96 wRC+ with a 10.8% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate in May. Five batters registered.320+ xwOBA against righties during that same timeframe – but some of their better hitters are barely holding on here, while the bottom of the order has been terrible; even on Friday’s wind-blown leftward games they produced only a team SLG of.361.

I expect the Reds to take advantage of an underachieving Cubs team and take control of this game, capitalizing on Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and their lineup making contact. Graham Ashcraft could pitch multiple strong innings before handing off to their bullpen with the lead; winning while providing great odds as road Underdogs.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Reds to Win
  • Both teams struggling
  • Reds have played better as of late
  • Cubs bats have been cold
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Reds vs Cubs Moneyline

The Moneyline value is with the Reds as both teams have struggled and I think this is a good spot to bet the underdog Reds. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Reds to Win
  • Ashcraft to pitch well
  • Cubs at home
  • Reds Bullpen edge today
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Β 

Reds vs Cubs Over/Under Analysis

The Over/Under in this game is 8. This is a tricky over/under, but I would lean towards the under. Neither team is hitting the ball well at the present time, and I see a low-scoring game for the both teams.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Under 8
  • Odds favor Low scoring game
  • Both Teams struggle at the Plate
  • Reds should win
Bet $5, Get $150 Instantly
Go to DraftKings

Β 

Reds vs Cubs Head-to-Head

This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season. The Reds won the season series last season 7 games to 6.

Conclusion

Both teams are struggling, and both teams need a win in this one. The Reds had played better as of late until losing their last two games to the Cardinals. I expect a low-scoring game and will lean towards a low-scoring Reds win. Reds 4Β  Cubs 2.

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