The Chicago Cubs have been mired in an offensive slump since dropping their series with the Milwaukee Brewers, falling below.500 for the first time this year. To stay above water they will look to Javier Assad to continue his impressive start against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday; his peripheral metrics support his strong play starting for the Chicago Cubs.
Graham Ashcraft has not had as much luck on the mound. Although Ashcraft can keep the ball on the ground, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are well below average compared to Cubs righties; meanwhile Cincinnati bullpen has been exceptional recently.
Both this teams are struggling and this is a big series if these teams want to make a playoff push the way both were expected to before the season started.
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Reds vs Cubs
Run Line: Cubs -1.5
Moneyline Reds +130
Moneyline Cubs-154
Over/Under 8
These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 05/31/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Reds to Win
Ashcraft currently sports a 4.67 ERA and 4.50 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 10th percentile while his Hard-Hit Rate sits in the 13th. A ground ball rate in the 71st percentile should suffice; since Ashcraft has gone at least five innings in four of five May starts, this should prove sufficient to cover his innings total here.
The Cincinnati Reds have struggled mightily against righties this May, posting a 75 wRC+ with 8.3% walk rate and 25.7% strikeout rate that ranks second-to-last among MLB teams. Furthermore, only Will Benson was above.320 xwOBA against righties while Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candelario Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz underperformed significantly and will likely remain stagnant for an extended period of time.
Assad owns a 2.17 ERA against an expected 3.51 xERA. While some regression should occur, his expected numbers remain decent: his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate both rank among the middle range, as do his strikeout and walk rates; although his walk rate could use improvement overall he has enough weapons in his arsenal including his plus fastball that should get by this Reds lineup.
The Cubs have not fared much better against righties of late, posting a collective 96 wRC+ with a 10.8% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate in May. Five batters registered.320+ xwOBA against righties during that same timeframe – but some of their better hitters are barely holding on here, while the bottom of the order has been terrible; even on Friday’s wind-blown leftward games they produced only a team SLG of.361.
I expect the Reds to take advantage of an underachieving Cubs team and take control of this game, capitalizing on Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and their lineup making contact. Graham Ashcraft could pitch multiple strong innings before handing off to their bullpen with the lead; winning while providing great odds as road Underdogs.
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet Reds to Win
Both teams struggling
Reds have played better as of late
Cubs bats have been cold
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Reds vs Cubs Moneyline
The Moneyline value is with the Reds as both teams have struggled and I think this is a good spot to bet the underdog Reds. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet Reds to Win
Ashcraft to pitch well
Cubs at home
Reds Bullpen edge today
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Reds vs Cubs Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under in this game is 8. This is a tricky over/under, but I would lean towards the under. Neither team is hitting the ball well at the present time, and I see a low-scoring game for the both teams.
DraftKings
4.6/5
Tip: Bet the Under 8
Odds favor Low scoring game
Both Teams struggle at the Plate
Reds should win
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Reds vs Cubs Head-to-Head
This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season. The Reds won the season series last season 7 games to 6.
Conclusion
Both teams are struggling, and both teams need a win in this one. The Reds had played better as of late until losing their last two games to the Cardinals. I expect a low-scoring game and will lean towards a low-scoring Reds win. Reds 4 Cubs 2.
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