How to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator
To use our Kelly Criterion calculator, there are several details you need to input/have at handânamely, your (total) bankroll, odds for your pick offered on the sportsbook, the win probability/percentage you envisage for your bet, and the fractional betting value you wish to use.
With all these values added to their respective fields, the calculator will churn out an upper limit for the stake you should use. Here is a rundown of the calculator in action and all the inputs you require explained:
- Bankroll/account balance:
This is basically the budget you are working with for your sports betting. Here, you enter the total bankroll balance in your betting account.
- Odds:
This field needs you to fill in the moneyline odds for the bet that you get from the sportsbook. Check the odds for your bet and key-in the value in this field.
- Win probability:
Fill in your bet’s win probability on this field. It is calculated in percentage form, so whatever value you enter would be the percentage probability of a win that you give for your bet. You can compute this from your odds (and get implied probability), then include your own analysis to adjust this if necessary.
- Fractional Kelly Betting (FKB) value:
This is the fraction of your total bankroll you wish to stake on the wager. Its default value is set at one (1), but you can change this to have values between 1 and 0.1
With all the critical inputs explained, here are the steps to use the calculator:
- Pick an event you want to bet on
- Enter the odds on the calculator
- Fill in the percentage probability of the win
- Change the fractional Kelly betting value if you wish
- Press “calculate” to see what your stake should be
The calculator will then produce the results with all the values keyed in. With these, you get the recommended stake you should place and the percentage of your bankroll it is.
It will also reveal the percentage return you get on the bet. If the calculator produces negative (-) values, then you should not place the wager as it is since it indicates that you will not make a return on it. Place your bet if the calculator produces positive (+) values, indicating that your bet has a return.
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ExampleÂ
It’s time to use a real-life example to show you how to use the information you get once the calculator gives you a result and why it uses the figures it does. An example like this would work even better when you have the
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Let’s take a game between the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics as an example. For this game, we will use a total bankroll of $100, which we input in the account balance field. We’ll then go with the Denver Nuggets for the win and give them a 60% probability of winning.
Now that we have a match to place our game on, it is time to check the odds offered on our sportsbook. If the Denver Nuggets are tipped to win at moneyline odds of +130, then this is what you enter on the odds field on the calculator.
We then choose the fraction of our bankroll we wish to use, which we feed into the Fractional Kelly Betting (FKB) field. Let’s leave this at 1, although you can adjust it to units between 1 and 0.1. To clarify, a value of 1 means we’re fully following the Kelly Criterion. However, you can adjust this to lower values, e.g., 0.5, for a more conservative approach.
After keying in these values in their respective fields, we see the percentage of stake we should place as 29.23%. Since our total stake was $100, this then means that we should place a bet worth $29.23. With this as the value of our stake, it gives an expected profit/value (EV) of $11.11.
| Odds format: | American |
| Total Bankroll | $100 |
| Selection | odds (moneyline) |
| 1 | 130 |
| Your estimated win probability | 60% |
| Fractional Kelly Betting | 1 |
| Results | |
| Recommended Stake (%) | 29.23% |
| Bet Amount | $29.23 |
| Expected Profit/Value (EV) | $11.11 |
| EV as Percentage of Stake | 38% |
According to the calculator, our $11.11 value is 38% of our stake amount. As we can see from the example, the calculator has taken the total stake we intend to use and come up with figures for the percentage of bet we will be using at $29.23 (29.23%) and the returns on our stake at $11.11 (38%).
With this knowledge, you now know how much of your stake you are to use for the bet and how much it will return if the bet wins.
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Kelly criterion betting explained
Bettors have a lot of considerations to make, and the amount you can wager on a bet is key. Our Kelly Criterion calculator helps determine what stake you should use.
Most bettors will often place bets, deciding their wager amount on how good they feel about the bet or how much they have to stake. These and other factors are among the biases the Kelly bet calculator caters to. While the best
online betting sites
will provide useful insights, tools like this calculator are what they put them to use.
It removes these and gives you an objective answer to the question, “How much do I stake?” With this bet calculator, bettors have a tool that helps them split their bankroll appropriately when placing wagers. It is a tool that helps you systematically grow your bankroll over a series of bets, so you should consider it a long-term strategy.
Unlike the bet calculator, which simply calculates the winnings you can expect using certain odds, this calculator factors in the probability of winning. Even though the tool uses a mathematical formula to discern your stake, there are things that it cannot do. For instance, it cannot predict whether you will lose or win.
Sudden events that occur to soil your bets, such as a player injury or out-of-form teams, are beyond the calculator’s computations. As such, a certain amount of luck and randomness is needed to get you the win. The calculator will, however, lessen the blow of a loss.
Why is this calculator useful
Using the Kelly calculator comes with plenty of benefits but not without risks either. While it is not a sure way of guaranteeing your bets turn a profit since they could lose, it does inform your choices when placing your wager and choosing your stake:
Many enthusiasts are unable to find a working strategy for managing their bankrolls. The Kelly betting calculator’s main benefit is that it tells you how much you will stake. Use it every time you wish to place a bet so that you are not blindly staking and losing your bankroll in the process.
Pick bets with a good return
The Kelly Criterion formula is not only beneficial to bettors but also to investors of any kind. By this, we mean that you can determine what bets give you good returns and, thus, where you should use your bankroll. You may have an event you strongly wish to place a bet on, but this may not be viable when considering the returns. The Kelly Criterion bet calculator will help you make such decisions.
Place bets informed by math
One caveat to betting is that bettors often rely on emotion to place bets, which usually means they make wild predictions. With this calculator on hand, you do away with emotion and use more of the math behind your bet to make your decisions. Combining it with other betting tools gets you even closer to positive results than flying blind.
Grow your bankroll realistically
Bettors are often looking to make a windfall in one bet, but unfortunately, this is not how gambling works. The Kelly Criterion betting calculator helps you grow your bankroll realistically over several bets as you keep getting returns from calculated risks. Growing your bankroll is easier when you are not constantly losing large amounts of stake to bets that need too high a stake to turn a profit.
What other betting calculators are available
If you are a savvy bettor, then you understand the indispensable use of tools like the Kelly formula calculator. We have lots of other betting tools you can use in conjunction with this calculator that will make it even more helpful.
| Calculator | Description |
| Odds value calculator | This calculator will find the value of your bet based on the probability that the event occurs. |
| Hold Calculator | The hold calculator that will essentially determine the hold your sportsbook is charging you when you place your bet. |
| Tricast calculators | Use the tricast calculator to find out the stake, returns, and potential profits from a trifecta bet. |
| Betting Odds Calculator | A calculator to help you find out the potential winnings for a given stake and odds. |
| Parlay calculator | The parlay calculator will determine the total odds and payout for your parlay bet. |
| Spread to moneyline converter | The calculator will help you see the moneyline odds for a specific point spread. |
| Betting odds converter | This is a calculator that converts odds from British to American to European. |
| Hedging calculator | A calculator that determines the value you need to have on your hedge bets for them to give returns. |
Conclusion – Kelly calculator can be helpful when determining your ideal bet size
Betting is an endeavor not for the faint-hearted. You could have a good run and squander it all in the next play. Betting tools like this are there to help you avoid such pitfalls. With this calculator, your money management system is far much better, and your wins and losses are far easier to take.
We cannot tell you that the calculator is foolproof, but we can tell you that it gets you a step closer to being a pro bettor. Use this tool whenever you have bets to place, and you will avoid the risk of placing too much of your own bankroll on a wager that turns out to be a loser.
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FAQs
đ What is the Kelly Criterion calculator?
The Kelly Criterion calculator is a betting tool that helps you determine how much stake you should place for a bet and the returns you get.
đ¤ Who can use this calculator?
All types of bettors can use the calculator, whether betting on sports events or table games. Its only job is to inform you of the amount of stake you should place based on the probability of winning.
đ¤ Does the Kelly Criterion calculator help me make my picks?
No, the calculator only tells you the expected returns from betting picks you have already chosen.
