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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Betting Tips / Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin

Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin: Can Lubin Tip the Ortiz/Ennis Apple Cart?

Boxing Betting Tips · - ·

Publish Date: 11/07/2025
Fact checked by: Mike Goodpaster

Vergil Ortiz sets his sights on a huge 2026 fight with Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis. In fact, Eddie Hearn claims Ennis will be ringside in Fort Worth, Texas, at the Dickies Arena this Saturday. But let’s not put the cart before the horse just yet. Erickson Lubin is a legit 154-pound contender with plenty of pop. The big question is, can Lubin tip the apple cart and spoil a potential Vergil Ortiz versus Boots Ennis matchup? This event, promoted by Golden Boy Promotions, will be live-streamed on the DAZN APP.

After a few years of health concerns derailing Vergil Ortiz’s promising career, it appears he’s ready to take the next step. From 2020 through 2023, Ortiz’s fight schedule was much like a motion picture film set. Hurry up and wait. Since the beginning of 2024, this will be Vergil’s 5th bout. In his last two outings, Ortiz defeated solid opponents in Serhii Bohachuk and Israil Madrimov. Following a close contest against Terrence Crawford, Madrimov’s victory is impressive.

BetMGM
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4.5/5
Tip: Ortiz by Stoppage
  • Ortiz busy as of late
  • Ortiz better fundamentals
  • Lubin dangerous
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However, the back-and-forth action in the trenches against Bohachuk is a better comparison of the style of fight we can expect in Saturday’s main event. Once two fighters engage in a war of attrition, it’s difficult for them to change game plans. Ortiz has the blend of fundamentals and the ability to win during exchanges, which makes him very dangerous and entertaining.

Erickson Lubin was a highly touted prospect who looked the part from an athletic and power punching standpoint on his way to a title opportunity. Jermell Charlo derailed Lubin with a perfectly timed punch, stopping the challenger dead in his tracks. Lubin has yet to live up to the hype he once had as a prospect, but make no mistake about it; he’s a game fighter in the junior middleweight division. The speed, power, and being more seasoned now versus quality foes have him ready to make a statement.

Lubin was in a dog fight against the now 154-pound titlist Sebastian Fundora. Both boxers touched the canvas in a 9-round thriller back in the spring of 2022. Erickson has just two fights since that loss to Fundora. Luckily, he did get the rust off in an 11th-round TKO victory over Andreal Holmes Jr. in May. It should be noted that when predicting an outcome, Lubin has been stopped in both of his losses.

Video: Vergil Ortiz Jr & Erickson Lubin FACE OFF | Trade RESPECT Words & Shake Hands on WAR

Vergil Ortiz Jr & Erickson Lubin FACE OFF | Trade RESPECT Words & Shake Hands on WAR

This boxing junkie is calling for a fun scrap that remains competitive until the 2nd half. The betting books indicate that this fight will likely not reach the final bell. Ortiz by decision is +158 and –162, Vergil by stoppage. Lubin can be had at +500 on the Moneyline and +930 via KO. If you feel Erickson Lubin will drop Ortiz and hurt him, winning by decision, it can be found upwards +1300. Lubin will put up a good effort, but it won’t be enough to get his hand raised.

My Official Prediction is Vergil Ortiz by late stoppage.

PODCAST LINK: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-rope-a-dope-radio-podcast/id1794655742?i=1000735509857

Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker, I-Heart Radio, The Grueling Truth Sports Network, Amazon Podcasts, Google Podcasts & More! Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio

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