Beterbiev vs. Bivol: A Long Time Coming

This Saturday, boxing fans finally get the payoff of seeing the two best light heavyweights battle in the ring for all the marbles. It’s been a long time to find out who is the best at 175. Billed as boxer versus puncher, but with the layers of each boxer’s skill set its way more profound than that. The main event from Saudi Arabia will stream live on ESPN+ in the States.

On the surface level, the most common bets or predictions are Beterbiev by knockout and Bivol by decision. If this boxing podcaster was a betting man (I am), taking Beterbiev by stoppage isn’t that much of a stretch, yet the betting sites seem to favour this bout to go well into the late rounds or go the distance.  The most skilled fighter Beterbiev faced was Oleksandr Gvozdyk. Artur lost rounds, but eventually, he not only caught up, he began to lap him. Gvozdyk took a lot of punishment quickly, retiring for quite a while before making a somewhat recent return to the sport.

Dmitry Bivol’s career has been uneven to say the least. His 4-fight run from 2018 -19 was solid. Bivol like many boxers were affected by covid but from late 2019 to late 2021 Craig Richards was his best opponent. 2022 was Bivol’s breakout year, defeating Canelo Alvarez and Gilberto Ramirez. Saturday’s showdown with Beterbiev will be Dmitry’s 3rd outing in just two years. Neither guy has been all that active, to be fair, so let’s dive right into the X’s and O’s of this highly anticipated contest.

The lead hand will tell the story of this fight and is likely the most crucial factor in determining the outcome. Yes, we know the question remains: can Bivol hold up all 12 rounds? Also, can Beterbiev drop and hurt Bivol enough times to win a decision? This boxing junkie thinks Bivol has the more accurate, faster jab. Don’t underrate Artur’s up jab or think he’s a pressure fighter who relies only on power. The jab and left hook is a weapon for both men.

Beterbiev is aggressive. That’s a fact. However, his punches are fairly efficient and less wasteful than other come-forward styles. Artur’s ability to hurt guys with more than one punch makes him so dangerous. Beterbiev’s amateur pedigree may not always show, but the work he does on the inside and while cutting off the ring is another undervalued item. He does look the part of a brute force robotic type. Please make no mistake about it: there is a method in his madness.

At times, you will see Artur leap or overreach with his punches, which opens up a clear target for Bivol. Age could play a part, given that Beterbiev is around 6 years older than Bivol. Coming off a knee injury could be a red flag. That said, it’s better to have rehabbed it and be able to test in camp rather than going into the fight with a more significant knee issue. Could we see shades of getting old overnight?

Another tough question to answer is whether Bivol can stay disciplined and avoid making big mistakes for all 12 rounds. Bivol is a capable counterpuncher on the inside and also a very fluid puncher. In spots, he must ensure his work rate is high enough to keep Beterbiev occupied. The jab, jab-right, and left hooks mixed with lateral movement are something Bivol can rinse and repeat.

Artur doesn’t have great defense. However, he changes levels and moves head while on his way inside. We know Bivol has a good amount of pop on his punches but does he have the power to keep Beterbiev off him all night long?  A crafty jab, left hooks to the head and body, and overhand rights, are Beterbiev’s most effective punches. The more this fight runs through my mind, the more the belief of footwork from either guy may be the determining factor.

Can Bivol build off of the success Gvozdyk and, to a lesser extent, Anthony Yarde had? Bivol is a master of distance. After landing clean punches, Bivol can avoid danger without being too far away to land a punch using slight retreat angles. For apparent reasons, staying off the ropes for long spells is a must for Bivol.

This is a true 50-50 on paper. The payoff for bets like Bivol by decision and Artur by KO can be paired. Artur by decision is a larger plus number then Bivol by KO. I think Beterbiev will need to drop Bivol at least once if not more. That, of course, is with the assumption Dmitry will win more rounds than Artur. The boxing world will focus on a phenomenal light heavyweight undisputed scrap.

My Official Prediction is Dmitry Bivol by Split-Decision.

PODCAST LINK: http://tobtr.com/12375606

Side Note: The best fight by far on the undercard is Wardley vs. Clarke the rematch! My Pick: Wardley by Majority-Decision.

Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio