The Sweet 16 is here, and today, we will look at the top prop bets for the round of sixteen. There are not as many underdogs as in recent years, so what we know are the very best teams playing for sports’ biggest prize.
Top Sweet 16 Prop Bets
(5) San Diego State vs. (1) Connecticut
Top Prop Bet Number One: Tristen Newton Over 14.5 Points
Thursday, we will see a rematch of last year’s national championship game when No.1 UConn Huskies meets No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs in an East region matchup on Thursday night. Check out our top
basketball betting sites
for March Madness Prop bets.
Tristen Newton played an instrumental role in Connecticut’s victory against SDSU in the final. He scored 19 points while penetrating SDSU’s interior defense and getting to the foul line (8-for-8 on FTAs).
SDSU’s defense hasn’t been as solid this season and lacks an effective rim protector who could prevent opponents from finishing in the paint. San Diego State ranks 295th when it comes to opponents completing at the rim.
Newton scored 13 points in limited playing time during Stetson’s Round of 64 win and 20 despite missing all six attempts from 3-point range in the win, getting to the foul line and converting on six out of seven free throws.
His scoring prop for the Sweet 16 is set at 14.5 points, with overpricing as high as -125. Sharper sportsbooks offer this offering for as low as -105 at FanDuel.
Newton is projected to reach the Sweet 16 with this total, but as a 6-foot-5 senior guard, he has the versatility to adapt his game plan depending on what the defense throws his way. While Aztecs protect the perimeter better than most teams do, their quick athletic guards can cause trouble and can often find themselves in foul trouble early.
Newton will come inside for high-percentage shots and force SDSU to pay at the charity stripe.
Tip: Bet Tristen newton over 14.5 points
- Aztecs defense not as good as last year
-
Newton is an experienced leader
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(6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona
Pelle Larsson of Arizona has hit multiple threes in four consecutive games dating back to the Pac-12 Tournament. He has shot an impressive 40.1% career three-point shooting rate this season (44.1%!). His percentage beyond the arc has significantly improved from previous years (34.4% career, 44.1% this year).
However, Pelle Larsson’s two or more made threes are priced at +130 on Draft Kings, which I plan to take full advantage of against 6-seeded Clemson.
Clemson has moved up to 38th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, yet it continues to allow an excessive rate of three-point attempts. Its 40.5% three-point attempt rate is fourth among tournament teams and 21st among 94 high-majors.
Since the ACC Tournament, they’ve allowed an average of 24 three-point attempts per game.
Pelle Larsson should take advantage of such high attempt rates by hoisting from deep more frequently, continuing his recent trend from January 1st. Larsson has hit this mark in 11 out of 22 games (50%), surpassing his +130 odds, which implies a 43.5% chance by one percent.
Given his exceptional success from deep, I expect Larsson to connect on at least two triples on Thursday night.
Tip: Bet Pelle Larsen 2+ Made threes
- Clemson poor three=point defense
-
Larsson on fire as of late
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(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina
Armando Bacot Over 15.5 Points (-125)
North Carolina big man Armando Bacot has been on an offensive tear this postseason, scoring in every ACC Tournament game he’s entered as well as both NCAA Tournament games so far, averaging 17.8 points per game on a 25.2% usage rate across five contests and two NCAA tournament games respectively. UNC’s all-time leading rebounder accumulated 20 and 18 points, respectively, over his two matches at this year’s Big Dance, making 23 attempted field goal attempts in the two games.
Armando Bacot may be worth considering against Alabama’s suspect defense, with odds of +125 on FanDuel Sportsbook for over 15.5 points at +125.
Bacot’s scoring output was relatively modest during the regular season but he showed his mettle against top competition. North Carolina played eight games against top-25 KenPom teams this season, and Bacot averaged 16.8 points per game on 10.3 field goal attempts and 7.5 free throw attempts—up significantly from his average of 14.4 points, 9.5 field goal attempts, and 5.1 free throw attempts during those matches alone. Check out our top
sweet 16 predictions
for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
While Alabama ranks 14th overall on KenPom, they rank only 101st for adjusted defense. 38% of opponent field goals came at the rim (highest among 16 remaining teams) while they allowed 59.8% at-rim field goal percentage (third highest).
The Crimson Tide have yet to face an opponent as capable as Bacot in the tournament, but they have struggled against top big men during regular season play—giving up 15 and 23 points, respectively, to Mississippi State’s Tolu Smith, 24 and 25 to Auburn’s Johni Broome, 19 points against Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner, and 35 against Purdue’s Zach Edey.
Alabama cannot defend the interior. That has resulted in them allowing an average of 33.6 points scored within the paint per game (15th-highest among high majors), but they also boast a 40.2% free throw attempt rate (fourth-highest).
Helpful in this effort are the high over/under (173.5) and short odds of becoming Thursday’s highest-scoring game (-340).
Bacot should thrive inside, perhaps even making double-digit free-throw attempts against Alabama’s soft interior. Consider his points prop and alternate markets as you watch Armando Bacot play: 17.5 (+132) may prove particularly tempting given his high total.
Tip: Bet Nacot over 17.5 points
- Alabama suspect defense
-
Bacot on fire as of late
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(3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State
Marcus Domask Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-102)
Marcus Domask followed up his impressive 12-point, 11-rebound, and 10-assist performance in Illinois’ First-Round win against Morehead State by scoring 22 points while still contributing seven assists.
Marcus Domask can easily score buckets and drop dimes, giving me the confidence to back him at FanDuel Sportsbook with over 20.5 Points + Assists odds of -102.
Domask has hit this mark in four consecutive games since reaching the Big Ten tournament semifinals. Though initially underwhelming in counting stats, his transfer has taken an impressive surge since January 1st, averaging 18.3 points and 4.6 assists per game at a 24.8% usage rate.
Domask has amassed 21 points or assists 15 times out of 24 games this year, scoring 21 or more combined. We are the only site that picked
Oakland over Kentucky
in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State will prove his toughest test this season. They feature the nation’s number-one adjusted defense and second in forced turnover rate, among others.
Iowa State’s aggressive style could actually benefit Domask, as its three-point attempt rate (third highest among high majors) and opponent assist rate (sixth highest) are among the highest in the conference.
Domask should find plenty of opportunities to exploit Iowa State’s poor performance against top-15 defenses; Illinois leads in adjusted offensive efficiency and ranks 31st for effective field goal percentage, providing ample chances for him to excel against them.
Marcus Domask Has Recorded 6+ Assists (+186). I found it particularly eye-catching that Iowa State is aggressive with its defense.
Tip: Bet Domask over 20 points
- Domask 6+ assisted +186
-
Domask on fire as of late
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