This Final Four has a little bit of everything/ You have the dominating defending champion that looks unbeatable. You have two teams that have never won a National Championship in Purdue and Alabama, and a Final Gour is not complete without a Cinderella, and we have that with the 11th seed North Carolina State Wolfpack.
Most think a UCONN/Purdue matchup is in the works, but we have seen that get blown up before, what I am saying is expect the unexpected.
- Point Spread: UCONN -11.5
- Moneyline Alabama +540
- Moneyline UCONN-720
- Over/Under 160.5
After falling just shy of scoring 81.5 team total in their 77-52 blowout of Illinois in the Elite Eight, Connecticut is given an Over/Under total of 85.5 points by bookmakers based on its high pace and shootout potential.
Connecticut may not be known for its fast pace (315th), but that doesn’t stop them from adopting a faster style when facing opponents like Alabama, who seek to score rather than defend. Checkout these
March Madness Betting trends.
Huskies haven’t faced anyone that matches Alabama in terms of momentum; however, UCONN was the top Big East team when measured according to KenPom’s Tempo Rating Index at 31st; UConn also finished these games with outputs exceeding their respective TT for these contests against an opponent whose defense far outmatched Alabama.
Connecticut scored 84 points against New Hampshire (25th in tempo) in non-conference play, remaining below its team total of 91.5 O/U through 4-for-28 shooting from 3-point range. Thanks to this advantage, Connecticut exceeded North Carolina (42nd in tempo)’s 78.5 O/U with an 87-point performance against their No. 8 defense.
The Huskies boast one of the most adaptable offenses in college basketball and thrive when opponents throw everything they have at them.
Alabama has allowed three NCAA opponents, Clemson, UNC, and Charleston respectively, to score 82-87-96 in those matches. Back in SEC play, Alabama has suffered blowout losses, with nine of 14 opponents scoring 85 or more in regulation time against them in regulation time. Check out our
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Prediction:
UCONN will win the game. Really, the only chance I see for Bama is to get hot at the start and build a lead. If they fall behind early, the game will be over quickly. UCONN will dominate the boards and limit Alabama’s second-chance scoring opportunities.
UCONN 96 Alabama 80
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UCONN -11.5
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UCONN will control the boards
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Alabama poor defensively
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West Region
- Point Spread: Purdue -9.5
- Moneyline NC State +340
- Moneyline Purdue -450
- Over/Under 146.5
Purdue’s Boilermakers have been dominating all season, but to defeat Tennessee 73-67 in the Elite Eight they needed a massive performance from Player of the Year candidate Zach Edey in order to advance. Edey recorded 40 points while shooting 13-21 from the field but the rest of his teammates only managed 34.4% shooting from the floor during that matchup.
NC State Wolfpack was considered a bubble team before winning the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament and earning themselves an automatic bid into March Madness. Though inconsistent at times during their regular season run, once you acknowledge they’re no fluke, you must acknowledge they’ve earned themselves nine consecutive wins, which include wins over North Carolina, Marquette and Duke (twice!). Check out the odds of being named
Most Outstanding Player
of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
The Wolfpack offense rarely turns the ball over and should have plenty of time to set up against a Purdue team which ranks 342nd in opponent turnover rate (13.4%). They boast four players averaging more than 11 points per game led by sharpshooter D.J. Horne (16.8 ppg on 44/41/81 shooting splits) and big man D.J. Burns (62.2 FG% over the past month).
Burns and Diarra have posted five double-doubles each over their last seven games! While they won’t be able to stop Edey entirely, they should at least slow him down while forcing him into defensive action on both ends of the floor.
This handicap hinges on whether or not NC State’s 3-point defense truly lives up to its recent reputation. At the end of regular season play, the opponent’s 3-point percentage was below 35% against them (35.1%); since starting the ACC Tournament, however, opponents are shooting only 28.4% from deep against them!
The Boilermakers boast an impressive 40.6 3PT%, but they have struggled from beyond the arc lately and have taken few 3s. Without hitting on downtown shots more consistently, I don’t see them covering such an extensive spread.
Prediction
Call me crazy but I think NC State pulls off the upset. They have two big men that can trouble Zach Edey, and this will come down to three-point shooting and free-throw shooting. I like NC State to nip them at the buzzer. Remember I am one of the few that
picked Oakland to beat Kentucky!
NC State 74 Purdue 73
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Purdue -9.5
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NC State red-hot
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Purdue struggling at Free Throw line
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