Upsets were the rule for the Sweet 16 and we are left with some intriguing matchups. Alabama vs Clemson, and it’s not Dabo vs Saban, NC State vs Duke, and the ACC will have a team in the Final Four. Can Purdue make it to their first final Four in over 40 years, and can UCONN roll to a second straight National Championship? The storylines are in place so lets predict the games.
East Region
- Point Spread: UCONN -8.5
- Moneyline Illinois +340
- Moneyline UCONN-450
- Over/Under 155.5
The Illini has clearly been overvalued here, as this number should be even bigger. UConn will be able to use their superior size as easily inside against big men such as Hawkins, Guerrier and Dainja.
Hawkins can match Karaban in terms of perimeter speed, while Dainja has enough strength to withstand Clingan inside. Connecticut may be well-balanced, but Terrence Shannon Jr has been lighting it up throughout this tournament! He has scored 26 or more in every Big Dance game and will look to put on a show against UConn in the Elite 8. He won’t score 26 in this game. This game will be close until the point were UCONN goes on a run and nlows the game open.
UConn has seen no trouble along its journey so far; now may be its toughest test. Illinois ranks 10th in KenPom and boasts the second-most efficient offense in the country, trailing only San Diego State by 2. While Illinois may present UConn with new challenges inside and out, taking its two best perimeter scorers—both having averaged over 8 points each in Big Dance playbacks—would certainly help its cause. Check out our
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Prediction:
UCONN will win the game after a slow first half. Once UCONN gets used to the Illinois offense the rout will be on.
UCONN 73 Illinois 56
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UCONN -8.5
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Terrence Shannon on fire
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UCONN to big and Physical
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West Region
- Point Spread: Alabama -3.5
- Moneyline Clemson +136
- Moneyline Alabama -164
- Over/Under 164.5
The Tigers come into this match as underdogs after winning each of their last three games as underdogs. An examination of their first matchup reveals some striking parallels to how the Tigers are currently playing. At their earlier matchup against Alabama, the Tiger’s defence was extraordinary – keeping Alabama below its scoring average and 40.3 per cent shooting.
All three opponents in this tournament have also been held below both their scoring averages and 3-point shooting averages. The Crimson Tide are averaging 44 rebounds per game during this tournament; Clemson’s front line held their own against Alabama, collecting 41 rebounds against them during their initial matchup against them. Alabama stands at 9-10 against tournament teams while Clemson boasts an impressive 9-4 mark against teams that made the tournament.
Their experienced backcourt has played smart, as evidenced by an increased drop in turnovers during their winning streak, and I think that run will continue into Saturday night’s game.
Prediction
Clemson will hold its own on the boards and slow down Alabama’s transition game just enough to squeak out a close hard, hard-fought victory. Clemson is a veteran team and they will get it done in this game. Remember we are one of the few that
picked Oakland to beat Kentucky!
Clemson 75 Alabama 74
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Alabama -3.5
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Clemson needs to rebound well
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Bama needs to control tempo
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Midwest Region
- Point Spread: Purdue -4.5
- Moneyline Tennessee +130
- Moneyline Purdue -156
- Over/Under 147.5
Tennessee will face Purdue with its formidable defensive team on display, but Purdue can make life enjoyable by showing some defense of its own.
Grambling State, Utah State and Gonzaga are not a daunting group of opponents but the impressive thing to me is how the players around Zach Edey have stepped up.
Purdue defeated Tennessee early this season when both teams met in late November. Purdue prevailed 71-67 by shooting 35% from the field while doing virtually nothing outside. How? Again, Purdue can play some defensive too! The Boilermaker shooters will be the difference in this game.
Prediction:
Tennessee can handle Purdue in the low post, but the difference in this game will be Purdue’s shooters. Perimeter shooting will be the difference in this one.
Purdue 82 Tennessee 71
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Purdue -3.5
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Purdue is hot
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Tennessee has been inconsistent on offense
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South Region
- Point Spread: Duke -5.5
- Moneyline NC State +215
- Moneyline Duke -265
- Over/Under 142.5
Now it is clear: It wasn’t just luck.
Marquette contributed to its own demise by shooting too often from beyond the 3-point line when some 2-pointers would have sufficed, but NC State’s defense has made an incredible run to get into the Elite Eight.
NC State’s defense from three was average this year, allowing teams to hit over 34% from three – good enough for 242nd in the nation.
NC State didn’t put much stock in team threes throughout its season – there were multiple losses when their shots weren’t dropping – but in recent weeks their defensive production on the outside has helped build confidence.
Passing has been smoother and shooting has been better, and against Duke, everything needs to keep working internally. At the ACC Tournament, they were excellent on offensive boards while guarding threes remarkably effectively.
Did NC State pull off one of the
best Sweet Sixteen upsets
of all time?
Prediction:
NC State has been on fire over the last seven games. Will they make it eight straight? I think they do! They are playing out of their minds, and Duke struggled with an injury-depleted roster heading into this game.
NC State 72 Duke 69
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Duke -5.5
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NC State is hot
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Duke is thin on the bench
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