The No.1 Connecticut Huskies entered March Madness odds as one of the favorites to take home back to back titles for many reasons, including their impressive offense. Yet that could change once UConn enters Sweet Sixteen play and faces teams focusing more on defense than offense.
The San Diego State Aztecs, who are seeded fifth, are best known for their strong defensive efforts; therefore, any problems in their offense will likely become evident Thursday night.
This is a rematch of last years National Championship game which UCONN won convincingly.
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Odds San Diego State vs UCONN
- Point Spread: UCONN -10.5
- Moneyline San Diego State +490
- Moneyline UCONN -330
- Over/Under 135.5
These odds were updated at 9 pm EST on 03/27/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: UCONN to Cover
UConn has won nine consecutive games since getting embarrassed at Creighton in mid-February, going 8-1 against the spread in this span. Their defense has been especially stellar during that run – they held eight opponents below their team total by an average of 6.1 points each game!
UConn has posted the No. 4 adjusted defense since Feb 23. Previously, they allowed 95.2 points per 100 possessions, ranking 23rd nationally.
UConn won its national title by going undefeated ATS in the NCAA tournament, holding all six opponents below their team totals by an average of 8.25 points each game. This same momentum appears now as they head towards their critical stretch.
The Huskies can reach an extremely high defensive level. That approach won them the 2023 title, which remains their key strength today.
San Diego State Aztecs offensive play falls far short of expectations for a Sweet Sixteen team. They shot just 30.4% from deep in conference play compared to 32.2% nationally. They heavily rely on offensive rebounds to score points.
UConn defense will be the difference in the game, look for the Huskies to roll on to the Elite Eight.
- UCONN Defending National Champions
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UCONN great defensively
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San Diego State Excellent Defensive team
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San Diego State vs UCONN Moneyline
To me, a money-line bet only makes sense when betting on San Diego State and the Aztecs are not winning the game.
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UCONN Will roll
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UCONN defense will suffocate
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Aztecs weak on defense
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San Diego State vs UCONN Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under is spot on, and I would lean towards betting on the Under; I look for San Diego State to only score in the 50s.
- Rebounding will be key
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San Diego State will struggle to score
- This game will be played in the 60s
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San Diego State vs UCONN Spread Analysis
I think the point spread is right in this game. UCONN is the superior team and should win the game by double-digits.
San Diego State has built its success upon slow, defensive play that shortens game variance, making it more difficult for them to cover spreads.
This spread opened with UConn favored by 9.5 points, steadily moving down to UConn -10.5 on Monday night and finally to UConn -11 by Tuesday morning, showing bettors are starting to appreciate how well their defense is playing.
The total opened at 135.5 and barely moved despite six of Connecticut’s last seven games going Under their respective totals.
- UCONN is the better team
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No value on betting the Huskies on the money line
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Game will be played in the high 50s to Low 60s
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San Diego State vs UCONN Player Props
Micah Parrish Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
Parrish has struggled to hit his marks recently. Over his last 20 games, he’s fallen under this threshold 55% of the time, making it more challenging for him to cross it than usual. Plus, UConn being such a difficult opponent makes his task that much more daunting!
UConn is known for being an outstanding rebounding team and ranks in the top five nationally in terms of effective field goal percentage, thus limiting Parrish’s opportunities and making it harder for him to grab any potential rebounds that arise. This could significantly reduce Parrish’s rebound opportunities and make them harder to grab than normal.
Projections show him to finish closer to 3.6 with a 70% chance of staying below 4.5, giving me the potential to cash this out if he finishes four exactly; 19-20% are my odds that’s how many boards he finishes on.
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Tip: Bet Micah Parrish Under 4.5 Rebounds
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UCONN Rebounds the ball well
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Parrish has struggled on the boards this season
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UCONN vs San Diego State Head to Head
This will be the first time the teams have played this season; last season, UCONN dominated most of the game to win the National Championship.
Injuries and Suspensions
San Diego State Injury Report
Arizona Wildcats Injury Report
Conclusion
This game will not look like last years championship game, only it will be worse. The Aztecs aren’t as good as last year and UCONN may be better.
