Many expected Clemson to lose to either New Mexico or Baylor in the first weekend of the tournament because they didn’t finish the season strong. That all changed over the weekend as the Tigers played some of their best basketball of the season, winning both games handily.
Questions surrounded the Arizona Wildcats because they have been inconsistent this season and also had last year’s stunning loss to Princeton. Arizona, for the most part, held off a hard-charging Dayton Flyers team in the second half last weekend to advance to the Sweet 16.
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- Point Spread: Arizona -7.5
- Moneyline Clemson +260
- Moneyline Arizona -330
- Over/Under 152.5
These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 03/27/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Arizona to Cover
The Clemson Tigers have relied heavily on their defense to reach the Sweet 16, holding Baylor to just 64 points on 39% shooting and giving up 56 on 30% to New Mexico. That tightness of defense has helped Clemson overcome some less-than-impressive offensive efforts from their star scorers.
P.J. Hall suffered foul trouble in the first two games (he played only 19 minutes per), and sharpshooter Joe Girard struggled from deep—he shot only 3-for-13 in those first two rounds! Check out our
top Prop bets for the Sweet 16!
Given their spread and higher total, as well as Arizona Wildcats’ sixth-place ranking in terms of pace, and anticipated game pace, the Tigers need their scorers — especially Girard — to step up.
Logo Joe has been Clemson’s top perimeter player this season, shooting 41.4% from distance while hitting an average of 2.9 triples on seven attempts per game from distance. Unfortunately, however, his touch from outside has been off in two NCAA contests played in Memphis.
The Tigers face a Wildcats defense that ranks within the Top 10 for defensive efficiency but suffers in perimeter play. According to ShotQualityBets, Arizona ranks 146th and 211th, respectively, in points allowed per play in catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3-point playsets; 32.5 per cent of points scored against them come via three-pointers (272nd).
Clemson excels at hitting 3-point shots, ranking 25th and 16th nationally in points per play according to two metrics that measure offensive efficiency. Prior to the NCAA Tournament, Giard had made three or more triples in nine of 12 games prior to making three in an ACC tournament loss against Boston College (3/7).
- Great Arizona Defense
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Clemson playing well as of late
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Arizona balanced scoring
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Arizona vs Clemson Moneyline
A money line bet, to me, only makes sense when betting on Clemson; if you want to play it safe, just take the points and give the points if you are unsure.
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Over 145.5 is the best bet
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JMU money line great value
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Rebounding
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Clemson vs Arizona Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under is spot on, and I would lean towards betting on the over, but I would not bet much on it. The money to be made here is betting JMU straight up to win.
- Rebounding will be key
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Clemson shoots the three ball well
- Arizona can score points wuickly
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Clemson vs Arizona Spread Analysis
I think the point spread is right in this game. arizona is the better team and should win the game by 8-12 points.
Tip: Bet James Madison to Win
- Arizona is the better team
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No value on betting the Wildcats on the money line
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Game will be played in the high 70s to Low 80s
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Clemson vs Arizona Player Props
Joe Girard Over 2.5 made 3s(-115)
The Tigers face a Wildcats defense that ranks top-10 in terms of defensive efficiency but shows holes on the perimeter. According to ShotQualityBets, Arizona ranks 146th and 211th, respectively, for points allowed per play when opponents utilize catch-and-shoot or off-the-dribble 3-point playsets; 32.5% of points scored against them come via 3-pointers (272nd).
Clemson excels at 3-point shooting, ranking 25th and 16th nationally in terms of points per play (both offensively and defensively), respectively. Before the NCAA Tournament began, Giard had made three or more triples in nine out of 12 games—including hitting 3 of 7 triples during their loss against Boston College at the ACC tournament. Check out all of our
Sweet 16 predictions!
Tip: Bet Joe Girard over 2.5 made threes
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Clemson shoots a lot of threes
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Girars will be the best shooter on the floor
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Clemson vs Arizona Head to Head
This will be the first time the teams have played.
Injuries and Suspensions
Clemson Tigers Injury Report
Arizona Wildcats Injury Report
Conclusion
Clemson has been on fire in the NCAA Tournament but Clemson is the better team. The Tigers can pull the upset if they catch fire from long range, but the Arizona perimeter defense should be to good for that to happen.
