
Xavier and Texas are two talented teams that underachieved this season and were lucky to get into the NCAA Tournament. Both teams were inconsistent and will be looking for consistency in this tournament.
This game is a rematch of the 2023 Sweet 16 matchup that helped Rodney Terry secure the head coaching position at Texas. It could symbolize a full-circle moment for Terry’s tenure in Austin, especially with recent speculation surrounding his job security. Texas heavily relies on the individual skills and shot-making abilities of Tre Johnson, Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark, and Arthur Kaluma. Johnson, a future NBA prospect, can make challenging jump shots. However, the Longhorns’ offense can stagnate for extended periods as it struggles to generate efficient shots. They currently rank 350th nationally in Rim & 3 Rate.
On the other hand, Xavier boasts a talented group of guards. Ryan Conwell recently scored 38 points in a Big East Tournament quarterfinal loss to Marquette, and players like Dayvion McKnight, Dante Maddox Jr., and Marcus Foster can also heat up during games. Additionally, Xavier has something Texas lacks: a reliable interior scorer in sixth-year senior Zach Freemantle. Ultimately, I’m leaning toward Xavier due to their coaching advantage. Sean Miller and Freemantle will seek and get revenge for their disappointing loss two years ago. With a spread of around -1.5 or -2, I’m picking the Musketeers to win. I also look for a twenty-plus point game by Conwell, who was an Indiana State Sycamore last season and helped Indiana State advance to the NIT Finals.
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The line is 149.5 and I will bet the over as I think this is a game played in the low eighties.
The Difference will be on the interior in this game as I look for Freemantle to have an enormous game on the inside and lead Xavier to the win. Xavier 84 Texas 79
Bet Xavier -2.5
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