This is a trendy pick everywhere you look and with good reason. The Dukes have won thirteen consecutive games and have an overall record of 31-3. As of early January, Wisconsin looked like a number two seed, and then they fell apart, losing towards the end of the season to the Indiana Hoosiers. the Badgers righted the ship in the Big Ten conference tournament, where they eventually fell to Illinois in a close, hard-fought game. That version of Wisconsin can beat anybody, but in the middle of the season, Badgers were not a good team. The question is, which team will show up in the NCAA Tournament?
Remember, if you want underdog winners, the Grueling Truth is one of the only sites to give you a straight-up winner in the
Oakland vs. Kentucky game.
- Point Spread: UCONN -11.5
- Moneyline Alabama +530
- Moneyline Wisconsin -780
- Over/Under 160.5
These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 04/05/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: UCONN to Cover
UConn may not require much explanation to justify betting on them now; their historic tournament run has made them at least seem unstoppable, and it is impossible to stop Dan Hurley’s intricate offence. Alabama’s approach of “we will outscore you” means there is little they can do defensively that will give UConn any issues. Alabama may possess the athleticism to defend, but their schematic errors often allow the Huskies to capitalize. Alex Karaban’s pick-and-pop ability makes rotations that much more complex. UConn rarely fails to create open looks; rather, the question becomes whether they will hit them, my guess is they will. Check out our top
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Second, UConn can take advantage of Alabama at the free-throw line. UConn ranked third in the Big East for offensive free-throw rates, while Alabama finished 12th overall in the SEC defensive free-throw rates. Alabama big men Nick Pringle, Grant Nelson, Jarin Stevenson, Mo Dioubate, and Mo Wague each committed at least 4.2 fouls per 40-minute rate. UConn should be able to use its complex offense, which often traps defenders in less-than-advantage positions, to easily draw Alabama into foul trouble on the front court.
Length will play an integral part in defending Alabama on the perimeter, particularly Mark Sears, who stands 6-1. UConn may make things uncomfortable for Sears with Tristen Newton at 6-5 and Cam Spencer at 6-4 as well as Cling Kong around the rim making life tough for anyone attempting an inside shot attempt. If UConn’s length hinders Alabama from getting away with their outside jump shots then this could make for an uncomfortable night for Alabama.
- UCONN is destroying everybody
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Gama defense is non-existent
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UCONN to dominate the boards
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NCAA Final Four Preview Show: UCONN Coronation? NC State Cinderella, Purdue or Alabama get first?
Alabama vs UCONN Moneyline
A money-line bet, to me, only makes sense when betting on Alabama; if you want to play it safe and bet on Bama, take the points. Yes, the money line value is enormous, but it’s huge for a reason. If betting on UCONN gives the points, it makes more sense than a straight-up bet.
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Over 160.5 is the best bet
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Alabama money line great value
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UCONN defense to dominate
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Alanama vs UCONN Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under is spot on, and I would lean towards betting the over and consider hitting it hard. Bama averages 90 points a game, and UCONN can score points quickly when a team tries to speed the game up. The Huskies are a complete team, and I think UCONN will score in the high 80s to low 90s.
I believe we will see Bama get a lot of garbage time points also which will be big to hitting the over total in this game. If you have any questions about what over/under betting id make sure to check out our
March Madness betting guide!
- Both teams can score quickly
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UCONN more complete team
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Bama can shoot from three-point range
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Alabama vs UCONN Spread Analysis
This spread is dead-on as the Huskies are clearly the better team. If Bama gets hot from three-point range they can make this game interesting. UCONN has been dominate as of late and their is no reason for that to stop happening in this game. UCONN is a bad matchup for Alabama.
- UCONN is clearly the better team
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No value on betting the Huskies on the money line
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Game will be played in the high 80s
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Alabama vs UCONN Player Props
Donovan Clingan OVER 15.5 Points
Clingan may make an impactful statement with his performance on the court, yet that may not always translate to numbers on paper.
On Saturday night, in UConn’s Elite Eight win against Illinois, Clingan proved otherwise, scoring 22 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and making five blocks. This impressive performance should bode well against Alabama in the Final Four, and I anticipate Clingan doing similar things against an underwhelming frontcourt like Alabama’s.
Crimson Tide are currently ranked 110th nationally for field goal percentage allowed at the cup and outside of the top 300 nationally in opponent free throw rate. I anticipate that Huskies will look to attack on the interior against this team by employing plenty of Clingan and free throw attempts that may help push this game over. Check out all of the
March Madness betting trends.
Tip: Bet Terrence Clingan over 16.5 points
- Alabama is a poor defensive team
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Clingan will dominate
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UCONN vs Alabama Head to Head
This will be the first time the teams have played.
Injuries and Suspensions
Alabama Injury Report
Wisconsin Injury Report
Conclusion
This game has blowout written all over it; that is, unless the Tide can hit in the double-digits from the three-point line, they will have no chance. Mark Sears has been on fire from deep in this tournament and that will have to continue. UCONN is better at the three-point line and can play any tempo that the Crimson Tide want to play at. UCONN is just to strong for the Crimson Tide! Make sure you guys check out our pick for the other Semo-Final game between
NC State and Purdue!
