NCAA Basketball Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers: Odds, Tips and Predictions 02/01/24

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Prediction: Bet Nebraska to cover

• Over/Under: Wisconsin vs Nebraska (145)
• Spread: Wisconsin -1
• Pick: Bet Nebraska to cover

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The Big Ten remains one of the most physical conferences in college basketball. When one team begins to dominate its conference rivals, another comes along and destabilizes it all. Usually, it’s because of home-court advantage, which has been huge in the Big Ten this season.

Nebraska needs a win on Thursday evening to maintain its NCAA Tournament hopes. Entering at 15-6, they enter this game against Wisconsin knowing a victory would do wonders for their resume and NCAA Tournament hopes.

Wisconsin might get caught looking ahead to a critical matchup at home with Purdue on Sunday!

Juwan Gary’s status is key in evaluating Nebraska’s chances. After sitting out several games due to a calf strain, Gary appears ready to return soon – the Huskers offense hasn’t looked the same without him!

Nebraska can find success against Wisconsin’s perimeter defense. Nebraska takes an abundance of shots from outside, creating the ideal opportunity to capitalize on the Badgers defense.

The Huskers make for an ideal underdog pick due to their high degree of 3-point variance; should they get hot early from deep, the Badgers could be in serious trouble.

Fred Hoiberg must go all-out in his efforts for Nebraska, knowing just how vital a victory would be in their NCAA tournament hopes. With Gary still sidelined, Brice Williams and Rienk Mast could assume greater offensive responsibilities.

Defensively, these forwards can hold their own against Wisconsin. The Huskers rank 28th in opponent 2-point percentage defense; something which will come in handy given their strong 3-point defense.

Nebraska has an ineffective perimeter defense and allows too many attempts from outside. Wisconsin will capitalize on any negative regression to defeat Nebraska in this game.

Last Friday night, Wisconsin completely overpowered Michigan State, though their contest wasn’t as competitive as its final score may imply. Their only loss at Kohl’s Center since early November came against Tennessee .

Though off to an impressive start, the Badgers do have some areas of concern regarding defense.

Wisconsin ranks 45th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but that statistic can be deceptive. Wisconsin opponents are shooting 52% from the field and 37% from 3-point range; though these numbers may seem exaggerated going forward.

This Badgers defense of years past was distinguished by suffocating opponents across the court and forcing turnovers, while forcing their opponent into turnovers themselves. Now they merely dominate defensive rebounding while struggling with blocking shots.

On the offensive side of the court, they’re an elite offense – ranking fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Wisconsin’s success on offense can be traced back to their backcourt play, particularly guards AJ Storr and Max Klesmit, who continue to make progress every season, playing critical roles that need to be impactful to score wins on the road.

Nebraska has had some luck when it comes to opponents’ 3-point percentage, giving Storr and Klesmit a chance at big days from 3-point range. Wisconsin boasts great free throw shooting abilities; however, Nebraska rarely fouls in games.

Outside of their situational advantages, I find the Badgers defense to be prohibitive when considering backing them in this matchup. Their perimeter defense may cost them dearly should the game turn into a 3-point shootout. The Badgers defense is not as good as in previous seasons.

This looks to be a tight game, and with Wisconsin possibly looking ahead to the Purdue game on Sunday, I look for Nebraska to squeak one out at home. Nebraska 82, Wisconsin 80.

Tip:

Nebraska to Cover

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