
These have been two of the best teams in the Big Ten all season long. Both are built to do damage during March Madness, just in different ways. The Spartans get it done with a deep bench and suffocating defense. The Badgers get it done from the perimeter and play at a fast pace. Those two styles will clash today with the winner heading to the Big ten Championship game on Sunday.
Michigan State’s perimeter defense is the most crucial factor in this game. Wisconsin ranks 24th in the nation for its three-point shot rate, with 47.4% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. The Badgers will need to find a way to solve the challenge presented by the Spartans’ perimeter defense, which is ranked third in the country for opponent three-point field goal percentage, holding teams to just 28.0% shooting from beyond the arc. In their regular season matchup two weeks ago, the performance of Wisconsin’s perimeter offense against Michigan State’s perimeter defense was key. The Badgers managed to shoot only 15.6% from beyond the arc in that game, which contributed to Michigan State’s victory. This matchup poses a significant challenge for the Badgers from a stylistic standpoint, and I anticipate another win and cover for the Spartans.
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I expect a high-energy game tonight, and a line of 144.5 is a line I will bet. I actually lean to a game played in the seventies.
You have to give a slight edge to the Spartans because of their perimeter defense, but this will be a razor close game. Michigan State 77 Wisconsin 75
Bet Michigan State ML
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