NCAA Basketball Tennessee vs North Carolina: Odds, Tips and Predictions 11/29/23.

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Prediction: Bet North Carolina to cover

• Over/Under: Tennessee vs North Carolina (142.5)
• Spread: North Carolina -1.5
• Pick: Bet North Carolina to cover

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This is a big-time matchup of top 20 teams. Tennessee has lost a couple of games in the last week, but they were both losses to highly-ranked teams. North Carolina came into this year looking to bounce back from a down year, and so far, they have looked good enough to seem like an NCAA Tournament appearance should be how they end this season.

UNC has yet to play a true road game and won’t play one until they head to conference play in January. That won’t matter here at home as the Heels are led by Davis, who’s averaging 18.2 points and 2.7 assists on 42.2% shooting (31.6%). Bacot adds 15.8 points, 1.5 blocks, and 11.8 rebounds on 51.7% shooting. Junior F Harrison Ingram (6-7, 230) is a Stanford transfer, who has been an excellent pickup early on, averaging 14.2 points and 7.0 rebounds on 49.2% shooting (48% 3pt).

Offensively, UNC doesn’t have a lot of issues as they are averaging 85.3 points on 46.5% shooting (36.9% 3pt). Defensively, they allow 69 points on 39.8% shooting and 30.7% from three-point range. The Tar Heels are ranked 21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 27th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, according to KenPom.

Tennessee only dropped three positions in the AP Top 25 poll despite going 1-2 at the Maui Invitational due to losses to Kansas and Purdue, who were both ranked Nos.1 and 2. They began strong by beating Syracuse 73-56; then, on Nov 21, as 3-point underdogs they lost to Purdue 71-67 before losing against Kansas 3 days later (69-60 loss), shooting just 33% from the field against Kansas while Santiago Vescovi scored 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting (5-of-10 3pointers); but only four members of their roster hit their marks from 15 attempts from 50 total attempts (5-of-53)! Vescovi has experienced some struggles this season, shooting only 39% from the field and 28.6% from long range for an 8.8 points per-game average. Luckily for Rick Barnes and Tennessee, they added Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht, who averages 17.5 points and 4.7 rebounds on 45% shooting (39% 3pt). Freshman guard Freddie Dilione, who shows great promise, has been sidelined since their Wofford game with an unspecified foot injury, however, is listed as doubtful for this matchup.

KenPom ranks Tennessee No.1 for Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their defense allows an average of 61.5 points per game on 38.1% shooting (26.7% 3pt). Offensively, Tennessee averages 73.7 points while shooting only 40.7% from the field (331%) with 331% 3pt shooting efficiency.

I expect a tight, hard-fought game in this one. The Tar Heels are primarily untested, while Tennessee has run a gauntlet this season. Assuming a little issue coming back from a week-long trip to Maui for the Volunteers and the Tar Heels can score a lot of points quickly. UNC 81  Tennessee 79. The best bet in this game is the over 142.

Tip:

North Carolina to Cover

Best Odd

-1.5

Brand

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