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Tennessee vs Kentucky Preview
Tennessee gave Alabama its first conference defeat Tuesday night on Rocky Top.
The Volunteers now have an opportunity to avenge one of their conference losses by visiting Lexington to face Kentucky on Saturday. On Jan. 14, Tennessee was a 12-point favourite at home against Kentucky, but they lost the game by seven.
For the rematch at Kentucky, one of the most famous in-conference rivalries in all of sports, the line is closer.
The Wildcats are on the bubble after a disappointing season. A win against a top-five team could secure Wildcats’ spot in the field for 68 next month.
The Volunteers have struggled in recent weeks, and I don’t think one home run Tuesday will change my opinion that the market is too high on them.
The No. 1 defense in college basketball is Tennessee, but it’s built upon some absurd shooting splits against them. Although the Volunteers are a top defensive team, it’s clear that their defense isn’t as strong as the market would suggest.
Volunteers allow many perimeter shots. The defense is always swarming and never permitting open looks.
Tennessee is ranked 80th defensively for the percentage of unguarded jumpers. It’s not elite, but it’s still a good thing.
The SEC has very few teams that can shoot consistent from the perimeter, so it is difficult for most of them to take advantage of this.
Kentucky is the exception in the conference, as the Wildcats shot 36.2% from outside the circle this season. This number drops to 34.3% during league play, the third-best in the SEC.
However, the primary problem for the Volunteers is not in defense. They can run and force turnovers, which makes them an efficient offense. Tennessee’s half-court has serious flaws. It suffers from scoring droughts that make trust difficult.
Tennessee ranks in the 51st percentile for PPP in the offense half-court. This is a huge problem for a team ranked in the top five and rated by tournament odds and power ratings as a top-five squad.
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Kentucky Wildcats Betting Tips
Kentucky has fallen from a possible top seed to a bubble team mainly because of its defensive profile.
While they don’t have any apparent weaknesses in defense, they don’t do much particularly well. Oscar Tshiebwe’s ball-screen defense and the post defense have often been exposed.
Tennessee won’t run its offense from the post, and the Volunteers will often play with their inconsistent guards in the half-court.
They are reliant on second-chance looks, but Kentucky is the best defensive-rebounding side of the SEC.
The Wildcats have been inconsistent on a nightly level this season. I expect an all-out effort at home against a rival team and a top-five team in the country. However, Kentucky did send in a second half at Alabama earlier in the year.
A week ago, the Wildcats were thrown out of Arkansas’ home court, as the Razorbacks dominated the game.
It is difficult to predict which Kentucky will play. The Volunteers’ speed and athleticism are not going to outmatch Kentucky, but Kentucky will still be able to generate second-chance opportunities while on the offensive side.
Kentucky’s offense is very post-oriented and uses a lot of hand-offs. Tennessee’s defenses are not elite in any way, but they do have post-defense.
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Betting the game
Tennessee’s win against Alabama was a home-run spot after two bad losses, but it didn’t convince me that this isn’t still a flawed team. They are flawed especially on the defensive side of the court.
Now on the road to Kentucky, the market is showing plenty of respect to Tennessee with this line.
The Wildcats have the athleticism, and a more engaged defense will be enough to turn this game into a coin flip at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky’s advantage on the offensive glass and its ability to keep Tennessee off the offensive boards is significant. The Volunteers had just four offensive rebounds in the first meeting.
I’ll bet Kentucky at +2 or better on Saturday.
Prediction: Bet Kentucky straight up at +104
Potential earnings
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