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Purdue vs Maryland Preview
Maryland is attempting to take revenge as it welcomes Purdue into College Park on Thursday night.
Since losing to the Boilermakers almost a month ago, the Terps have won five out of six.
Purdue is now a loser of two of its three previous games.
Maryland has dominated the XFINITY Centre since its loss to UCLA in December. Since then, the Terps have a record of 8-0.
A 23-3 Purdue team has been dominant all season. There is not much else to say. However, the Boilers have lost both of their last two road games.
Can Maryland overcome its Jan. 22 defeat against Zach Edey and his Boilermakers? Or will it continue to struggle offensively against the Purdue team.
Purdue is finally beginning to look vulnerable, suffering losses in two of the last three games they have played.
Edey is the offense’s 7-foot-4. He is undoubtedly the country’s most powerful weapon.
He is a big player and one of college basketball’s most polished post players. He isn’t awkward handling the ball and has a great touch around the rim.
Edey’s size and physicality make it almost impossible to stop. He is the No. 1 offensive rebounder in the nation, draws fouls at an elite-20 rate, and shoots 62.8% from behind the arc.
As you would expect, Purdue shoots almost 15% from the post, while 40% is shot from the perimeter. The biggest problem for Purdue is the lack of consistency shooting the 3.
Braden Smith has given a tremendous boost (41.9%) but Fletcher Loyer, who has taken almost twice as many 3s than the other Boilermaker guards, is connecting at a mere 34.2% clip.
Matt Painter often teams Edey and Caleb Furst (6’10”), a big 6-foot-10 player who is also very efficient on the glass. For smaller teams who struggle with defensive rebounding, the duo can pose a problem.
Purdue’s offense is slow. The Boilermakers prefer to slow down and allow Edey to get up from the post before they run their offense.
The Boilermakers do not force turnovers (334th in the country), so transition offense is uncommon.
According to ShotQuality, defensively, the Boilermakers allow the fifth most shots at the rim despite Edey being present. They are efficient in defending these attacks, within the top 30, and clear up the defensive glasses with no problems.
This Purdue defense can only be defeated by pushing transition and forcing turnovers. Painter’s defense is best when it is in the half-court.
According to ShotQuality’s PPP metrics, the Boilermakers rank 23rd for defending the perimeter. However, they rank 231st for catch-and-shoot 3, according to ShotQuality.
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Maryland Terrapins Betting Tips
Maryland’s first year under Kevin Willard has been a rollercoaster ride. The Terps went from a blistering 8-0 start to the season with consistently winning blowout games, to losing seven of their next 11.
Maryland is now 5-1 since that Purdue loss on Jan. 22. The Terps won by double digits against Indiana, and this would be their last push for an NCAA tournament berth.
The Terrapins are one the most exciting rosters in the Big Ten. Maryland prefers transition offense, and its pick-and-roll is the best way to succeed.
Jahmir Young, a Charlotte transfer, has been the center of this offense and is currently used on more than 30% of possessions. He is the primary ball handler and leads the team’s scoring, assists, and steals.
Senior Donta Scott is relieved of a lot of the pressure by his presence. He takes 25% of shots on the floor. These two players are Willard’s only ones who take more than 20% of the shots.
The biggest boost to this offense, and the reason Maryland attacks through PnR, is Julian Reese. The sophomore ranks thirtieth in eFG% and is a dominant force around the rim as well as on the glass.
The Terps are ranked within the top 50 for defense and 2-point offense. They are an athletic, tall team that is more comfortable attacking in transition than they are at 3-point.
Don Carey’s 3-point% has dropped by nine points since he transferred from Georgetown. On the other hand, Hakim Hart has had trouble finding his groove.
Maryland’s defense, like Purdue, forces its opponents to slow down. According to ShotQuality, the Terps have difficulty transitioning but rank 55th in the half-court. Their defensive pressure and length often channel the opposition inside, which often proves disruptive.
Willard is a defensive-minded coach, which has translated into College Park’s first season as the head coach. The Terps rank 34th in eFG% and have played a suffocating defense.
In Big Ten play the Terps have given up over 65 points just four times this season.
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Betting the game
Maryland will have to control the pace of this game and make Purdue play in transition. If they do, they win this game. If they allow Purdue to slow the game down, they will lose. I think at Maryland controls the pace and covers this game.
Prediction: Take Maryland +2.5
Potential earnings
If you are betting Maryland to cover, the payoff will be good, and I think Maryland will cover. For example, a few days before the game, the odds range to -110 if you are betting on Maryland to cover. If you bet 100 on Maryland to cover, the payoff will be at -110; the payout would be 191 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 91 for winning the bet. You need to check out the Grueling Truth’s
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