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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Betting Tips / NCAA Basketball Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini: Odds, Tips and Predictions 03/05/24

NCAA Basketball Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini: Odds, Tips and Predictions 03/05/24

Basketball Betting Tips Β· - Β·

Publish Date: 03/05/2024
Fact checked by: Simon Briffa

The game of the week in the Big Ten will see Illinois host Purdue in this battle between the unquestioned two best teams in the Big Ten. Purdue has issues with quick guard combinations and the Illini have just that. The previous matchup between these two teams saw Purdue dominate most of the game until a furious rally by Illinois that came up just short..

Odds Purdue vs Illinois

  • Point Spread: Illinois -1.5
  • Moneyline Pyrdue +112
  • Moneyline Illinois -134
  • Over/Under 164.5

These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 03/05/24; the odds came from Draft Kings.

The spread on this game was Purdue -1.5 yesterday, but overnight the odds flipped in Illinois favor.

Our Best Pick: Illinois to Cover

Purdue and Illinois met previously, in West Lafayette during the first week of January. Purdue led by more than 20 points during the second half, but an incredible Illinois comeback effort produced a five-point game at its conclusion.

Given its script and the lack of Shannon for Illinois, this game offers little to take from it.

Purdue’s recent five ATS results make the Illini an attractive prospect. They have an excellent opportunity to steal a win and end the streak.

To achieve that goal, the Illini bigs — especially Coleman Hawkins — must stay out of foul trouble when dealing with Edey and avoid depending solely on how the game is officiated for results.

Illinois playmakers Shannon and Domask can certainly test Purdue’s perimeter defenders, which gives me greater peace of mind.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Illinois to cover
  • Illini at Home
  • Illinois strong guard play
  • Purdue struggles against quick guard play
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Purdue vs Illinois Moneyline

In this game, you get solid moneyline numbers for betting on either team, and the game is a toss-up. I would bet Illinois, giving the -1.5 more value than the money line.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Illinois to cover
  • Boilers not as good on the road
  • Bet Illini -1.5
  • Bet the Moneyline in this game if betting on Purdue
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Β 

Purdue vs Illinois Over/Under Analysis

Illinois at home against a good Minnesota team broke 100 points a week ago and we know Purdue can score a lot of points quickly. I do foresee this game being played in the eighties or nineties, so betting the Over makes the most sense to me.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 164.5
  • Both teams can score quickly
  • Edey to Dominate
  • Illini guard play controls the tempo
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Β 

Purdue vs Illinois Spread Analysis

The line looks about right to me, Purdue is ranked higher but The Illini at home and Shannon back in the lineup to me makes Illinois a small favorite in this game.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Illinois to Cover
  • Good Value on the Spread
  • Purdue struggles against good guard play
  • Game will be played in the 80s/90s
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Β 

Purdue vs Illinois Player Props

Marcus Domask is my top bet at over 17.5 points. Zach Edey over 24.5 points seems a safe bet in this game also. Braden Smith is a sleeper pick for me over 14.5 points.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Domask over 17.5 points
  • Edey over 24.5 points
  • Smith over 14.5 Points
  • Hawkins under 14.5 points
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Purdue vs Illinois Head to Head

Purdue built a twenty-point lead early in the second half at home against Illinois. The Illini made a furious rally that came up five points short, and they played the game without Terrance Shannon.

Injuries and Suspensions

This teams are healthy headed into this matchup making this the game of the year in the Big ten.

Purdue Injury Report

  • None reported

Illinois Injury Report

  • M. Williams – Questionable

Β 

Conclusion

The Illini are at home, and with the backcourt matchups they cause, Purdue looks like the right pick. This will be a high-scoring, exciting game between the two best teams in the Big Ten. I am taking Illinois on an 88-82 game.

Β 

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