NCAA Basketball Northwestern Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers: Odds, Tips and Predictions 01/31/24

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Prediction: Bet Purdue to cover

• Over/Under: Northwestern vs Purdue (143.5)
• Spread: Purdue -13
• Pick: Bet Purdue to cover

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Northwestern upset the Boilermakers earlier in the season at home; since then, the Wildcats have shown to be a great team, but they have struggled on the road. The Boilermakers have dominated at home and are one of the top teams in the country, and they will be looking for revenge in this game.

Matt Painter has proven a master at setting Edey up for success. Instead of leaving him sitting idly on the block, he utilizes ball screens and dribble handoffs for him, giving him opportunities to maneuver into post-up positions against shifting defenses.

Edey requires much of their team’s attention, so his supporting cast must take advantage of any open shots when they appear. Purdue shot just 5-for-19 in Evanston, while Northwestern hit 10 of 20 triples.

Purdue shoots significantly better at home, according to Bart Torvik; 43.7% of threes made are at home, as opposed to 36.4% when playing away or neutral games.

Purdue’s primary defensive flaw lies in its inability to turn teams over. They rank just 323rd nationally in defensive turnover rate (KenPom), which became evident during Northwestern’s upset victory where only three turnovers were forced by Purdue during that 45-minute game.

Northwestern is powered by its backcourt, led by Boo Buie – widely considered one of the top guards in the country.

Buie is an expert floor general who excels at balancing his duties as both scorer and creator. He can hit difficult shots while using his veteran wisdom to set teammates up with open looks.

Northwestern has given Buie plenty of passing options with its lineup: Ty Berry, Ryan Langborg and Brooks Barnhizer are all dangerous long-range threat players; when these three are all present on the floor around Buie, Northwestern can create incredible spacing that even top defenses have difficulty with.

Buie leads Northwestern and boasts the lowest turnover rate in their conference. Northwestern maximizes possessions – something they need to do due to poor rebounding stats.

Northwestern ranks 14th (last) in offensive rebounding rate and 13th in defensive rebounding rate in Big Ten competition, placing them near the bottom in both categories. Physical foes can easily intimidate Northwestern with their thin frontcourt and guard-heavy rotation, which allows opponents like Purdue to dominate them on the glass in their first meeting by outrebounding Northwestern 52 to 27.

Matthew Nicholson leads Northwestern in terms of interior presence, but all three Wildcat centers struggle with fouling issues – thus prompting Purdue to shoot 41 free throws against Northwestern in December!

Purdue is the better team and they will be up for this game. Look for Purdue to dominate the boards and slowly pull away. Purdue 88 Northwestern 73.

Tip:

Purdue to Cover

Best Odd

-13.5

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