The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been one of the surprise teams of this College Basketball season, while the Purdue Boilermakers have surprised no one by dominating the big Ten Conference. After last week’s win over Wisconsin, the Badgers hold a two-game lead in the Big Ten Conference.
Minnesota would get a considerable boost in their NCAA Tournament chances with a win at Purdue. The Gophers are huge -16 point underdogs in this game, and even though the Gophers have not been great on the road, that’s still a lot of points for Purdue to cover.
- Point Spread: Purdue -16
- Moneyline Purdue -2800
- Moneyline Indiana +1160
- Over/Under 146.5
These odds were updated at 5 am EST on 2/15/24; the odds came from Draft Kings.
The spread on this game is enormous as the Minnesota Golden Gophers will travel to Purdue. The Boilermakers are considered one of the elite teams in America and are one of the favorites to win the National Championship.
Our Best Pick: Purdue to Cover
These two teams share many similarities on the offensive end.
Minnesota relies heavily on their big man Dawson Garcia to lead them in both points and rebounds. Just like their opponent, Minnesota keeps the ball moving quickly so as to maximize chances at creating high percentage shots.
Minnesota and Purdue share similar traits; however, Purdue’s Boilermakers are better-equipped to stop Minnesota’s offense than Minnesota can against Purdue. Minnesota scores almost 35% of its points from within the paint; however, with Zach Edey as an anchor this season, opponents rarely venture inside this space for offense.
The Minnesota Gophers don’t thrive at 3-point shooting efficiency, yet over 33% of their points come from three point range. When they take on Purdue they will likely need to disperse the floor more evenly to secure victory. They will have to be effective from three-point range to stay competitive in this game.
Boilermakers defense has proven successful against three-point shooters, ranking 43rd nationally for 3-point shooting percentage allowed.
Dawson Garcia’s health is in question for this game and if he doesn’t play the Gophers will be in big trouble.
- Edey 23.2 PPG
- Boilermakers unbeaten at home
- Edey to dominate
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Minnesota Vs Purdue Moneyline
Betting Purdue on the moneyline has zaero value in this game, they are too big of a favorite.
A Gophers win pays big, but honestly I am hard pressed to see a version of this game where Minnesota wins. The best value bet on this game is by using the pointspread.
Prediction: Purdue 81 Minnesota 63
- Purdue at Home
- no value to betting on purdue
- Gophers win pays big
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Minnesota vs Purdue Over/Under Analysis
Purdue will be able to score; I am betting the under, though, because I think Minnesota will struggle to score. My predicted final score adds up to 144 points, so betting the over/under on this game can be tricky. I foresee a blowout win for Purdue, and I would bet the under because I think the Gophers are going to have issues, especially early in the game, scoring points.
- Purdue efficient on Offense
- Gophers offense poor on the road
- Purdue hits the over 60 per cent of the time
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Minnesota vs Purdue Spread Analysis
This point spread is huge, but the thing to remember is that the sportsbooks aren’t predicting this game; they are just trying to give a line to entice enough Minnesota fans to bet this game so the Bookies can get even money bet on both teams. It does not work in this situation with me as the -16, and Purdue look too good to me to pass up.
- Edey will dominate
- Boilermakers will dominate on Offense
- Purdue dominated the Gophers last season
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Minnesota vs Purdue Player Props
My top player props would be Zach Edey Over 22.5 points, Edey has dominated Big Ten competition this season and should have his way with the Gophers also.
I also love Braden Smith 2 plus threes at +134; Smith is coming off a great game against Indiana and being at home he is much more comfortable and shoots a even higher percentage.
Tip: Bet Zach Edey over 22.5 points
- Bet Edey over 22.5 points
- Smith to make 2+ three pointers
- Fletcher Loyer over 9.5 points
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Minnesota vs Purdue Head to Head
Last season the Boilermakers won both games last year and they did it in dominating fashion including a 61-39 beating at Williams arena in Minnesota last season.
The game at Purdue was a 89-70 Boilermaker win as Zach Edey dominated both games. The Gophers are much=omproved this season, but they have a lot of ground to make up to be competitive with the Boilermakers.
Injuries and Suspensions
Kel’el Ware is questionable for the game as is Xavier Johnson. Indiana has not tipped their hand about the availability of either of these players. These will be most likely game time decisions. Purdue is healthy and ready to go for tonight’s matchup.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Injury Report
- Dawson Garcia(Game time Decision)
Purdue Boilermakers Injury Report
Conclusion
My top prediction for this game is to take the Boilermakers and give the -16 points.
I love the under in this game because I think the Gophers will struggle to score. Purdue should be able to score with ease. The key will be can the Gophers score in the mid 60s and I think the Gophers will struggle to do that.
My top Prop bet is to bet Purdue’s Zach Edey over the 22.5 points; the odds are good value at -122.
