These two teams square off in one of the weekend’s biggest games. The Cougars are ranked number one, while the Jayhawks come into the game ranked 14 nationally. Kansas was the initial matchup, but that game was played at Kansas, so the Cougars will be looking to gain revenge from the game.
- Point Spread: Houston -8.5
- Moneyline Kansas +340
- Moneyline Houston -450
- Over/Under 136
These odds were updated at 9 pm EST on 03/08/24; the odds came from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: the Over 136
Kansas and Houston rank among the Top 10 regarding Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
However, the first meeting was decided by eight points, and Houston shot 36% from the field and 31% from deep.
This matchup has an increased total of 136 but still represents a good value on the total bet.
Houston has posted seven out of its last ten victories with an over/under total exceeding 140. That includes their home game against Iowa State – who share Kansas and Houston’s reputation for possessing formidable defense.
Under 140 is my preferred number in this matchup and I would be confident playing it up until that number has been achieved.
Pick: Over 136 (Play to 140).
- Houston at Home
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Revenge Game
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Houston the Deeper team
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Kansas vs Houston Moneyline
You get a great moneyline for betting on a Kansas win, which is a possibility, but I would steer clear of that. Netting the Moneyline on Houston does not have enough value; I really prefer the over in this game.
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Two good defensive teams
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Last matchup easily covered on the over
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Best Moneyline bet would be Kansas
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Kansas vs Houston Over/Under Analysis
Illinois at home against a good Minnesota team broke 100 points a week ago and we know Purdue can score a lot of points quickly. I do foresee this game being played in the eighties or nineties, so betting the Over makes the most sense to me.
- Both teams can score quickly
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Houston at home
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Cougars should control the tempo
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Kansas vs Houston Spread Analysis
I think the line is slightly bigger than it should be which is why I think the over is the best bet on this game. I think the line should be about -6 in favor of Houston
- No value on the Spread if betting Houston
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Good value betting spread on Kansas
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Game will be played in the 70s
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Kansas vs Houston Player Props
Kevin McCullar Jr. Over 18.5 Points:
With Jalen Wilson no longer on the Kansas roster, McCullar has taken an even larger scoring role. The senior has scored 19 or more in three of his last five games and scored 21 points against Houston last time around. His usage rate should increase substantially in this matchup, making an over on his points prop an appealing bet.
J’Wan Roberts Over 7.5 Rebounds:
Roberts has been a force on the boards for Houston. The 6-foot-7 forward has registered at least eight rebounds in seven of his last eight games and pulled down ten during their initial matchup against Kansas. They rank only 80th in rebound rate allowed, so Roberts should have plenty of opportunities to clean up on that front, too—take the over on Roberts’ rebounding total!
Jamal Shead Over 5.5 Assists:
Shead has taken on the primary playmaking role for Houston this season, averaging 6.2 assists per game and dishing six or more dimes in seven of his last nine contests. Kansas allows 12.5 assists per game, so Shead should have no trouble connecting with his teammates for open looks—back the over on Shead’s assist prop!
Tip: Bet McCullar over 18.5 points
- J’Wan Roberts over 7.5 Rebounds
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Snead over 5.5 assists
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Kansas vs Houston Head to Head
Kansas dominated the initial matchup at home, but the Jayhawks are not as good on the road and Houston is a better team at home. Also it’s important to remember that Houston played that game without two significant players.
Injuries and Suspensions
Kansas Injury Report
- K. McCullar Jr.
G, Questionable- Knee
Houston Injury Report
- J. Tugler
F, out for season – Foot
- R. Walker Jr.G, out for the season – Knee
- T. Arceneaux
G, out for the season – Achilles
Conclusion
I expect the Cougars to control the pace of this game with great defensive pressure. They are healthier than they were in the last meeting, and I think the Cougars get their revenge. Houston 75 Kansas 70.
