The Badgers were upset on the road at Penn State earlier in the week and are sure to come out ready to play tonight. The Badgers are the better team in this matchup, but a -10.5 spread seems awfully steep.
The Hoosiers were easily beaten at home by the Purdue Boilermakers as they struggled to run their offense and defend Zach Edey. The Hoosiers need better guard play if they want a chance in this game.
Wisconsin does a remarkable job at maintaining control of the ball, ranking 52nd nationally for offensive turnover rate and rarely giving away possession to opponents. So much of this game could occur at Wisconsin’s leisurely pace in half-court play.
Wisconsin plays at one of the slowest speeds in college basketball, using over 19 seconds per possession and employing one of the lowest possession turnover rates. Indiana typically prefers quicker pace games; however, due to Indiana allowing opponents to take their time and play as they please in this contest, it should follow Wisconsin’s preferences.
Wisconsin is effective inside and out, though they don’t take many shots from deep. Much like Indiana’s strong interior defense ranked within the top 60 for Defensive Rate Per Shot Quality rankings – forcing opponents to take inefficient shots most of the time compared to Wisconsin, who ranks 200th in offensive Rim Rate and 10th in defensive Rim Rate rates, all combined this contributes to an inefficient shooting game.
The Hoosiers have gotten a lot from Ware this season; his issue is that against the best competition, he has struggled and has a tendency to back down in the biggest situations. Mackenzie Mgbako has steadily improved, and the Hoosiers need to get him more involved in the offense. The Hoosiers have struggled to rebound the ball this season and have been inconsistent on both ends of the floor.
The Hoosiers also have a hard time controlling the game’s pace, and if they play at Wisconsin pace, they will lose this game. The Hoosiers are a terrible free-throw shooting team, making it really hard to get wins on the road.
Wisconsin will control the pace, which makes betting the under the best bet in this game. Neither team shoots the ball well from the outside, and neither team will shoot a lot of threes. I look for Wisconsin to control the pace of this game and the final score to be in the high 60s. I am staying away from the spread because it’s a big number. The Badgers should win the game, but the cover will be tough. I bet the Under in this game.
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