
Nebraska was rolling at the beginning of this season, but over the last month, it has gone off the rails. Now, it faces one of the top ten teams in the Big Ten: the Illinois Fighting Illini, who, when they are right, are as good as any team in the Nation.
The Fighting Illini will continue to be without their big man, Tomislav Ivisic, but I still believe the team has a good chance of securing a victory on the road this Thursday night. The Nebraska defense has struggled in the Big Ten, allowing opponents to achieve the second-highest effective field goal percentage against them while facing a barrage of three-point shots. While they may improve over time, the Fighting Illini will likely bounce back from their current three-point shooting performance.
Brad Underwood’s squad is shooting 29% from beyond the arc in Big Ten play, down about four percent from their non-conference performance. The Illini will push teams off the three-point line and force them into contested shots closer to the basket. Although the absence of Ivisic may be a setback, the team has enough offensive firepower to manage the Nebraska offense, which has struggled in conference play. The Cornhuskers are averaging 68 points per game in the Big Ten and have particularly faltered against the stronger teams in the league, losing by an average of 33 points per game to the top 20 opponents. Illinois should still be able to handle Nebraska on the road despite being down a starter.
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I expect a high-energy game tonight, and a line of 153.5 is a line I will bet. I think Vegas nailed the correct number to keep me from playing this. If I had a gun to my head, I would lean towards betting the under. I really think a high-energy game between these two teams will be played in the h70s. Neither team as of late has shot the ball as well as they did earlier in the season.
Bet Illini -2.5
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