NCAA Basketball Harvard Crimson vs Indiana Hoosiers: Odds, Tips and Predictions 11/26/23.

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4.6/5

Prediction: Bet Harvard to cover

• Over/Under: Harvard vs Indiana (41)
• Spread: Indiana -6.5
• Pick: Bet Harvard to cover

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The Indiana Hoosiers are struggling so far this season. The Schedule has been light, and the Hoosiers have struggled to beat the likes of Army and Wright State. Harvard was picked in the preseason to finish sixth in the eight-team Ivy league but has far exceeded those projections this season.

Indiana’s struggles have been well documented; let me quickly summarize them here.

Indiana ranks 350th nationally in 3-point attempt rate and 3-point percentage; only 12.5% of their points come via long balls (361st nationally – KenPom).

No player has made more than five 3-point shots through five games, giving defenses ample time and opportunity to camp out in the paint and block driving lanes.

The Hoosiers’ strength lies in the paint, where Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware stand out with incredible talent. Along with point guard Xavier Johnson’s powerful playmaking, Indiana ranks first nationally for free-throw rate creation.

Strangely, Indiana Hoosiers have struggled on the glass this season despite having so much size and physicality. Wright State outrebounded them, while Army and Florida Gulf Coast tied in rebounds. Harvard was no better, although they do possess legitimate size and physicality that gives them an edge on this front.

Freshman point guard Malik Mack, a scoring machine capable of scoring and dispensing the ball, has propelled Crimson’s revival. Through six games, he has amassed 20.2 points per game while maintaining an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3:1.

Mack has assisted Chisom Okpara, the Crimson’s other monster, in emerging. Okpara uses his 6-foot-8 frame to carve out space around the basket while still possessing enough shooting ability to hit an occasional three.

Tommy Amaker has assembled an outstanding supporting cast, including Chandler Pigge, Justice Ajogbor, Louis Lesmond and Thomas Batties; their talent levels rival any in Ivy League basketball.

Harvard is showing some concerning trends with their shooting numbers, according to Shot Quality’s projections, their 3-point and midrange shooting percentages are expected to decrease by 7.1% and 12.3%, respectively, while their opponents should become stronger defensively.

An important detail for this matchup: Amaker has built his Harvard teams into formidable underdogs since 2017. Since 2017, their Crimson teams are 38-16 against the spread when getting points, covering by an average of 3.9 points per game.

The Hoosiers might win this game, but it won’t be easy. Harvard shoots the three-pointer well and the defends well also. This should be a close hard-fought game. Take the Crimson and the -6.5. Indiana 74  Harvard 71

Tip:

Harvard to Cover

Best Odd

+6.5

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