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NCAA Basketball Final Four: Houston Cougars vs Duke Blue Devils 04-04-25

Basketball Betting Tips · - ·

Mike Goodpaster

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Chief Editor

Publish Date: 04/04/2025

Fact checked by: Simon Briffa

This is no surprise matchup, as both of these number one seeds looked like National Title Contenders all year long. They are two of the best defensive teams in the country, but Duke’s offense is why the Blue Devils are favored.

Houston Cougars vs Duke Blue Devils

Point Spread: Duke -5.5
Moneyline Houston +225
Moneyline Duke -275
Over/Under 137

There wasn’t much we didn’t know about Duke heading into the NCAA tournament; we knew they were good, but the Blue Devils have met every expectation we had on Selection Sunday and have probably surpassed those expectations. If you were concerned that they inflated their statistics due to poor competition in the ACC, they have answered those doubts. Duke delivered remarkably efficient offensive performances in the second round against Baylor and in the Sweet 16 against Arizona. They then held Alabama—the nation’s top-scoring offense—to just 65 points, allowing fewer than 0.90 points per possession in the Elite Eight. One thing we did learn is that the moment has not been too big for Kon Knueppel, Cooper Flagg is not the only stud on the Blue Devils. Kneuppel averaged 20.5 points and 4.0 assists, showcasing impressive performances in both the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils are loaded with NBA talent. The remarkable thing is how hard these Devils play on defense.

In recent NCAA tournaments, Houston’s offense has struggled in crucial moments. In 2022, they fell short against Villanova in the Elite Eight, managing to score only 44 points. In 2023, their performance was inconsistent, with difficulties in two out of three games. Last season, they scored just 51 points in a Sweet 16 loss to Duke. However, this year has been different. Houston scored at least 1.17 points per possession in three out of four games. Even in their least effective offensive performance, they still managed 1.08 points per possession, averaging nine three-pointers per game. We have been saying all season that this is the best offensive team Kelvin Sampson has coached at Houston, and the Cougars are proving us right so far.

Houston vs Duke Moneyline

The money line value exists for a MoneyLine bet on Houston, but for my money I like Duke -5.5. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

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4.6/5

Tip: Bet Duke -5.5

Procter to have a big impact
Duke’s defense will be the difference
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