Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Has Locked Up the MVP — And It’s Not Even Close

With just one week remaining in the 2025–26 NBA regular season, the MVP race is no longer a race—it’s a formality.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has officially separated himself from the field, and barring something completely unforeseen, the award is his. What was once a competitive three-man discussion has turned into a runaway, and the betting markets reflect exactly that.

Over the weekend, Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds skyrocketed from -600 to an overwhelming -2000, putting him miles ahead of the rest of the field. Meanwhile, contenders like Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic have fallen so far behind that their chances now feel more theoretical than realistic.

And then there’s Luka Doncic, whose MVP candidacy officially ended with a hamstring injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the regular season. His removal from the board didn’t just thin the race—it effectively ended it.

The Straw Poll That Ended the Debate

If there was any lingering doubt about where this race stood, it was erased when Tim Bontemps released his final MVP straw poll.

The results weren’t close.

Gilgeous-Alexander received 88 first-place votes, while no other player earned more than eight.

That’s not a competitive race—that’s a landslide.

Straw polls have historically been one of the most accurate indicators of how MVP voting will shake out, and this one confirmed what the odds were already suggesting: voters have made up their minds.

The Case for SGA: Dominance, Efficiency, and Wins

Gilgeous-Alexander’s season isn’t just MVP-worthy—it’s historically efficient.

• 31.4 points per game
• 6.5 assists per game
• 4.4 rebounds per game
• 55.2% shooting from the field
• 38.3% from three-point range

Those numbers alone would put him in the conversation. But what separates SGA from the rest of the field is the combination of production and team success.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have already won 62 games, establishing themselves as the best team in the NBA. More importantly, they’ve done it while dealing with adversity.

With Jalen Williams missing significant time due to wrist and hamstring injuries, Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t just keep OKC afloat—he elevated them. He became the engine, the stabilizer, and the closer all at once.

That matters to voters.

MVP has always been about more than numbers. It’s about impact, consistency, and the ability to carry a team to the top of the standings. SGA checks every box.

Why Wembanyama Fell Short

For much of the season, Victor Wembanyama looked like the biggest threat to Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP run.

The generational talent has been everything the San Antonio Spurs hoped for—and more. He’s already the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year and has transformed San Antonio into a legitimate contender far ahead of schedule.

But MVP isn’t awarded on potential or defensive dominance alone.

The case for Wembanyama hinged on one key factor: team success at the very top level.

Specifically, he needed the Spurs to overtake OKC for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

That didn’t happen.

After a critical loss to Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, San Antonio now sits three games behind Oklahoma City with only a handful of games remaining. That gap effectively ends the argument.

Wembanyama has been phenomenal, but his offensive impact still doesn’t match the elite level set by players like SGA, Jokic, or a healthy Doncic. And without the No. 1 seed, his MVP case simply doesn’t hold up.

Jokic’s Greatness… in a Losing Race

Nikola Jokic is doing something that should normally win an MVP: he’s averaging a triple-double.

Let that sink in.

And yet, he’s not even close to winning the award.

Why?

Because MVP is relative to the competition—and this year, SGA’s impact on a dominant team outweighs Jokic’s statistical brilliance on a team that sits 12 games behind OKC in the standings.

Jokic has already won multiple MVPs, and voter fatigue is always a factor, whether people want to admit it or not. But even beyond that, the gap in team success is simply too large to ignore.

The Final Verdict: It’s Over

At this point, the only thing that could derail Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP campaign would be a complete and total collapse by the Thunder in the final week of the season.

That’s not happening.

The award has effectively been decided.

After weeks of movement in the odds, with Doncic, Jokic, and Wembanyama all taking turns as the “next best option,” the race has settled exactly where it should have.

SGA didn’t just stay consistent—he separated.

What This Means Historically

If Gilgeous-Alexander finishes the job, he will join one of the most exclusive clubs in NBA history—players who have won back-to-back MVP awards.

That list includes legends like:

• Bill Russell
• Wilt Chamberlain
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
• Larry Bird
• Magic Johnson
• Michael Jordan
• LeBron James
• Stephen Curry
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Nikola Jokic

That’s not just elite company—that’s basketball royalty.

And that’s where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is headed.

Final Thought

This wasn’t a fluke season.

This wasn’t a narrative-driven award.

This was dominance.

From opening night to the final week of the season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best combination of production, efficiency, and winning in the NBA.

And now, with the finish line in sight, the MVP race isn’t a debate anymore.

It’s a coronation.