NBA Playoffs Game 1 Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Odds, Tips and Predictions 05-05-25

​The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder are set to clash tonight in Game 1 of their Western Conference playoff series at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

• Point Spread: Thunder -9.5
• Moneyline Denver +360
• Moneyline Thunder -460
• Over/Under 225.5

🏀 Game Preview

Denver Nuggets (41-23, 19-14 Away) The Nuggets, led by the ever-dominant Nikola Jokić, enter the playoffs with momentum. Jokić is averaging a triple-double this season with 28.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.6 assists per game. In their last outing, Jokić made history by recording the NBA’s first-ever 30/20/20 game in an overtime win against Phoenix. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. provide additional scoring threats, with Porter Jr. averaging 18.5 points and shooting over 50% from the field.

Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11, 28-4 Home) The Thunder boast the league’s best record and are riding a wave of success, winning nine of their last ten games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the charge, averaging 32.9 points per game. The team has been formidable at home, with a 28-4 record at the Paycom Center. Their defense has been particularly stingy, allowing just 106.6 points per game.

Denver vs Oklahoma City Moneyline

Moneyline value exists for a bet on the Nuggets. I am leaning towards taking the Nuggets on the Money line. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Thunder -9.5

• Rebounds to be key
• Turnovers to be key
• Nuggets at Home

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Betting Analysis

Against the Spread (ATS): The Thunder have been reliable against the spread this season, posting a 40-23-1 record. At home, they are even more impressive with a 22-10-1 ATS record. Conversely, the Nuggets have struggled on the road, with a 15-17-1 ATS record.

Over/Under Trends: Both teams have potent offenses, with the Nuggets averaging 121.2 points and the Thunder 119.6 points per game. Given these numbers, games involving these teams have frequently gone over the total points line. The Thunder have hit the over in 57.6% of their home games, while the Nuggets have done so in 51.5% of their away games. ​

🔑 Key Matchups

• Nikola Jokić vs. Chet Holmgren & Isaiah Hartenstein: Jokić’s ability to dominate the paint and facilitate the offense will be tested against the Thunder’s interior defenders. Holmgren and Hartenstein will need to be at their best to contain the reigning MVP.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jamal Murray: Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring prowess will be a focal point, and Murray’s defense will be crucial in limiting his impact.

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Denver vs Oklahoma City Over/Under Analysis

Both teams have high-scoring offenses, and recent trends suggest a high-scoring affair.​

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet the Over 225.5

• Both teams to play well on offense
• Jokic Big Night
• Thunder at Home

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Game one will comfortably go to the home-standing Thunder, they are more rested and should control game one. I do expect this series to be competitive though.

Bet Thunder -9.5