NBA Playoffs Game 5 Golden State vs Sacramento: Odds, Tips and predictions 04/26/23

DraftKings

4.5/5

Prediction: Bet Sacramento to cover

• Over/Under: Golden State vs Sacramento (235)
• Spread: Warriors -1.5
• Pick: Bet Sacramento to cover

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Sacramento and Golden State Warriors have engaged in an intriguing first-round series that’s already played out like the Western Conference finals, with two games coming down to an almost final-second missed 3-point shot from each side.

Now the series is tied 2-2, and everything hangs in the balance for Game 5. Just when everyone was starting to relax after such an amazing Game 4 performance, news broke of De’Aaron Fox breaking his finger and being listed as doubtful — now questionable — for Game 5.

Fox has pledged his presence, calling himself 99% likely, in Game 5 between Warriors and Kings and expects that it should result in an intense, gripping battle which should send one team towards elimination. We’ll take a look at betting preview for Warriors vs Kings to provide predictions.

Though this series has been anything but predictable, the home team remains undefeated.

Golden State has had difficulty on the road during these playoffs, going 10-33 overall and 3-for-6 against Sacramento so far. Their defense has been especially troublesome; at home it ranks third-best by Defensive Rating but third-worst away from Oracle Arena.

Golden State’s road struggles can be traced back to a lack of freedom on defense: Sacramento shot 61 free throws between home games as opposed to 41 on the road; they also forced 35 turnovers at home versus 22 when traveling, turning defense into easy offense – Stephen Curry committed five turnovers each road game but just one each home game!

As Steve Kerr adjusted his lineups without Draymond Green or Gary Payton II in Game 3, Steve Kerr placed one big in each position he played; this allowed Sacramento to feel less pressure while opening up Golden State’s offense through multiple shooting opportunities.

The Warriors began Game 4 by starting Green off the bench to provide one big punch; however, Keegan Murray of Sacramento made up for that by attacking Jordan Poole instead. Murray finished with 23 points before Green replaced Poole as their alternate starter during the second half, opting instead for defense over offense.

Be wary of Kevon Looney. Although his numbers in recent games – 17 rebounds and 7.5 assists — were an improvement from Sacramento, where they averaged only 8.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists — his second-half contributions decreased significantly after Green resumed his role as pick-and-roll big. Looney’s rebound count spiked to 11.5, so I will refrain from trusting this player too much.

Poole is an influential player to fade. He had an abbreviated role in the second half and has performed better at home than away in these playoffs – scoring 19 PPG in his two wins at home with only 10.5 in Sacramento; Payton could potentially eat into his minutes further, too. I like Poole going under 17.5 points, as it has happened in eight of 10 road playoff games he’s participated in so far.

Green was aggressive in attacking the basket in Game 4, taking 14 shots. He made three field goals but scored 12 inefficient points despite making three field goals himself. I’d rate his points over at 8.5; similarly, Andrew Wiggins rebounding line is playable at 5.5 since he has averaged 6.7 RPG over his three starts and reached 7.5 last postseason.

This feels like a desperation spot for the Kings, and I think with the home crowd behind them, they pull this out in a close one.