NBA Finals Game 5 Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Odds, Tips and Predictions 06-16-25

OKC has the control, but the Pacers are battle-tested and a dangerous opponent. Expect SGA to take over late, Pacers to push Pace, but odds favor Thunder finishing it strong—unless Indiana flips the script again. This series is NOT over, no matter what the National Media tells you. If you don’t believe me, look at what they were telling you at the start of the series.

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

• Point Spread: Thunder -9.5
• Moneyline Pacers +320
• Moneyline Thunder -400
• Over/Under 223.5

🎯 Storylines to Watch

Thunder (Home Favorites)

• Bounce-back momentum: OKC rallied from a 7-point deficit in Game 4, sealing a 111–104 win thanks to a 31–17 fourth-quarter surge.

• Home dominance: 9–2 at home in this postseason.

• Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander (SGA):

  • Dropped 35 pts in Game 4 (0 AST), including 15 in Q4.

  • Prop Over 33.5–34.5 pts is a top pick.

• Bigs stepping up: Chet Holmgren had 14 & 15 boards in G4—props on his rebounds (over 8.5) are strong.

• Alex Caruso’s energy: Off the bench in Game 4, he scored 20 pts and grabbed five rebounds—prop for 10+ pts & 3+ rebounds (+105 at bet365) looks strong.

Pacers (Resilient Underdogs)

• Rick Carlisle’s strategy: His unorthodox zone defense and pressing schemes—echo last championship run—keep Indy in the game.

• Underdog ATS form: They’ve covered 9–4 as underdogs in these playoffs, winning all 9 outright.

• Haliburton & bench: Haliburton’s decision-making and fluid offense essential. Bench depth (Mathurin, Siakam, Turner) fuels comebacks.

• First-quarter caution: Historically slow starts (bottom‑5 in Q1 differential) could let OKC establish early lead

Thunder vs Pacers Moneyline

Take the Pacers and the points tonight in what should be a tight game. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Pacers +9.5

• Rebounds to be key
• Turnovers to be key
• Thunder at Home

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Player Prop Picks

• Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander Over 33.5 points (−114): SGA is trending high—38 in Game 1, 34 in Game 2, and 15 of his 33.5 came in the 4th quarter of Game 4

• Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 rebounds (+120): he grabbed only 2 in G4; model favors the under

• Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 (Points + Assists): strong support role, topped 25 combined twice; props market trending his way

• Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds: reliable ~8.7 RPG in playoffs

Thunder vs Pacers Over/Under 223.5

• Both teams combine high-season scoring; over hit ~54-55% this season

• Average combined scoring in head-to-head ~238 PPG vs line ~223 → suggests Over

O am going with the over tonight, but it will be just a small bet.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet the Over 223.5

• SGA to play well
• Nesmith will come up big
• Thunder at Home

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Pacers +9.5