The Dallas Mavericks’ emphatic win in game four at home extended this series. Now, the Boston Celtics’ coronation will take place on Monday night back home in Boston—or will it? The Mavericks’ defense was amazing in game four, but can they do it again and force the series back to Dallas?
- Spread: Boston -6.5
- Moneyline Boston -260
- Moneyline Dallas +215
- Over/Under 209
These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 06/17/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Bet the Celtics -6.5
As they looked to avoid being swept, the Mavericks emerged victorious in Game 4, stunning the Celtics with a historic win. Though outscoring them overall in this series, I believe Boston has been superior despite losing Kristaps Porzingis (lower leg).
Dallas made some genuine adjustments that led to their victory, such as increasing efforts to chase Boston off of their 3-pointers and providing greater defensive effort overall – especially from Luka Doncic who fouled out in Game 3. However, Boston also gave little offensive effort, contributing to what ultimately was an overwhelming Mavericks victory.
My model indicates value in Boston in Game 5 to as low as -7 but also have a Bet Labs trend that fits this situation perfectly: home favorites off a double-digit road loss have gone 134-102-5 against the spread since 2005 (10.5% ROI), or 75-46-1 when excluded Round 1 and Play-In Tournament results (21.2% ROI), although this trend only holds for 6 out of 18 Finals series matches up perfectly with this pattern.
Still, I believe that the Celtics will close out this series at home following an intensity lapse in Game 4.
Pick: Boston Celtics -6.5 (-112)
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Tip: Bet the Celtics to Cover
- Rebounding will be the key
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Boston at Home
- No Porzingis
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Mavericks vs Celtics Moneyline
Betting Dallas on the moneyline gives great odds, if you want to bet the Celtics give the points. If you are looking for the best sportsbook, we’ve got you covered as we break down the
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Tip: Bet Celtics to Cover
-
Money line value on Dallas
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Boston is the better team
-
Luka to have a big game
Mavericks vs Celtics Over/Under Analysis
The over/under is 209, bet the under in this game as the Mavericks and Celtics defenses will control this game.
- Odds favor game a slower paced game
-
Kyrie needs another big game
- Rebounding will be key
Mavericks vs Celtics Spread Analysis
The spread of Celtics -6.5 is about right as the Celtics have proven to be the better team.
Tip: Bet the Celtics to Win
- Which team controls the post
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Celtics are the better team
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Dallas needs to shoot lights out
Mavericks vs Celtics Head-to-Head
The Celtics have dominated the Mavericks over the last four years, and these Finals have been more of the same. Check out our guide to betting on
NBA Playoff Parlays.
Injuries and Suspensions
Mavericks Injury Report
- Prosper- Out
- Doncic- Questionable
Celtics Injury Report
Conclusion
Look for the Celtics to rebound from a disastrous shooting game in game four and win their 18th title tonight. Boston 110 Dallas 96.
