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Celtics vs Bucks Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks host the Boston Celtics in a nationally televised showdown before the All-Star Break. Is there a betting edge in a matchup with critical playoff implications as these teams fight to be the top seed in the East?
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Boston Celtics Betting Tips
Today’s Celtics are at a severe disadvantage. Jaylen Brown (face), Marcus Smart(ankle) and Danilo Gallinari (“ACL”) will all be absent. They have also listed Jayson Tatum’s (illness), Robert Williams (ankle), and Grant Williams (elbow) as doubtful. Malcolm Brogdon is in the final round of probable.
Boston now has a projected starting lineup that includes Grant Williams, Grant White, Al Horford, Robert Williams, Sam Hauser and Grant Williams. This team will have to win without Brown and Tatum.
The Celtics have the league’s highest Point Differential (+6.9) and the league’s best record of 41-16. This production level is impossible to replicate as they must go further down their depth charts.
Surprisingly Jayson Tatum’s +10.4 rating for Boston has been when he’s not on the floor. Jaylen Brown, however, is a -7.0 according to Cleaning the Glass. Both players have excellent advanced metrics, with Tatum and Brown in the 97th and 89th percentiles.
The Celtics struggle when Smart, Tatum and Brown are not on the floor. This is a small sample, which speaks to their overall health this season. However, in 265 possessions, the Celtics have a 5.9 Point Differential score of 107.9 per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. Without their three top players, handling business against the Bucks will be tough.
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Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips
They have been in great form lately, winning ten consecutive games and are now just one game away from catching the Boston Celtics for the top seed and best record in the East. They look forward to returning their best players tonight and pulling closer to Boston.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) and Pat Connaughton(calf) are both probable tonight. Jae Crowder (conditioning) will not make his Bucks debut, but, notably, the Bucks did not include Khris Middleton (“injury management”) on their injury report.
The Bucks have had a difficult season. However, they still have the fifth-best Point Differential (+3.8). Their struggles have been mainly on the offensive end of the ball. While their defense has been excellent, their health has not been, but it looks to be improving. To improve their offense, they needed Khris Middleton back. Bucks’ lineups include Holiday, Antetokounmpo and Middleton. They score 122.2 points per 100 possessions.
Although it is a small sample (225 possessions), this combination was what the Bucks need to win. According to Cleaning the Glass, we can see that Grayson Allen and Brook Lopez are their best off the bench, with a +21.2 point differential in 103 possessions. This Bucks team is healthy and dominant.
This game looks to be a mismatch because of injuries to the Celtics. The Bucks seem to be as healthy as they have been this season and will clamp down on a limited Celtics offense.
If you are betting on the Bucks to cover the -8.5, the payoff will be decent, and I think the Bucks will cover. For example, a few days before the game, the odds range to -110 if you are betting on the Bucks to cover. If you bet 100 on the Bucks to cover, the payout would be 91 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 91 for winning the bet. The best bet is betting on the Bucks to cover.
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