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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Betting Tips / March Madness Final Predictions: Find Tips, Odds & Best Betting Sites for 2024 Finals Game

March Madness Final Predictions: Find Tips, Odds & Best Betting Sites for 2024 Finals Game

Basketball Betting Tips · - ·

Publish Date: 04/07/2024
Fact checked by: Simon Briffa

Edey vs Clingan is the best big-man matchup we had seen since the 1980s when Ewing and Olajuwon battled in Seattle for a National Title. These have been the two best teams this season, and this looks like a classic matchup. The players around these two giants will decide the game.

Purdue will need to improve the play of its guards. The Huskies will run away with this game if the guards don’t shoot well. The worry for Purdue is that UCONN has gotten much more consistent guard play during this season, and if that continues, UCONN should win. Braden Smith for Purdue has to have a big game for the Boilermakers to win their first-ever National Championship.

Purdue can cover this spread, and a moneyline bet on Purdue pays off well is you want to take that risk.

Remember, if you want underdog winners, the Grueling Truth is one of the only sites to give you a straight-up winner in the Oakland vs. Kentucky game.

Odds UCONN vs Purdue

  • Point Spread: UCONN -6.5
  • Moneyline Purdue +202
  • Moneyline UCONN –250
  • Over/Under 146.5

These odds were updated at 9 am EST on 04/07/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Purdue to Cover

Purdue’s plan of attack against Clingan should not come as any surprise—their offense runs through Edey in the post.

Purdue shot 40% from three against NC State and used Edey as their go-to guy in the paint. While Purdue leads the nation in 3-point percentage (52.2% overall, 35% in tournament), UConn has shot 35.8%. How will UConn deal with Edey and those rotations? Three-point shooting has been inconsistent during postseason play.

The Boilermakers had 16 turnovers against the Wolfpack and have gone winless when they have 15 or more turnovers – they cannot afford such carelessness with the ball against the Huskies!

UConn has played against two Big Ten schools—Northwestern and Illinois—so its cross-conference style won’t matter much in this tournament. Overall, UConn has shot 30.7% on 3-pointers; they hit 10 out of 25 against Alabama for a 40 per cent success rate.

Purdue is undefeated against teams when the spread is five points or less in either direction, including two wins as outright underdogs.

Rebounding will be key in UConn’s matchup against Purdue, and that battle will require a team effort from both sides. Edey will play a pivotal role as Purdue tries to prevent UConn from going on game-changing runs like Illinois and Alabama experienced during previous rounds. Therefore, how Edey will affect UConn’s offense is an intriguing question. The Huskies should adjust accordingly by halftime.

When both teams score under 75 points, the outcome becomes somewhat of a coin flip. UConn holds an 8-3 S/U record in such situations, while Purdue boasts 7-4. In a match-up between No. 1 seeds, 75 could become the defining digit, and who gets there first will determine success or defeat.

Braden Smith will have to play better than he did in Purdues previous two games in the tournament.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Purdue to Cover
  • Edey vs Clingan is a prime time matchup
  • Purdue needs Braden Smith to be involved
  • Purdue has been battle-tested
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

Purdue vs UCONN Championship Preview Show!

Video: NCAA Championship Game Preview: Purdue vs UCONN *Upset Special*?

NCAA Championship Game Preview: Purdue vs UCONN *Upset Special*?

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UCONN vs Purdue Moneyline

If I am betting on UCONN, it makes more sense to give the points, as the value for a straight-up win is not theirs. With Purdue, a straight-up money line bet pays off handsomely. If you think Purdue can win the game, there is value in that bet. I think betting Purdue +6.5 points is the best bet in this game. March Madness betting trends are always good to know.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Purdue to Cover
  • No Value in Betting UCONN Moneyline
  • Purdue money line great value
  • Game will be closer than expected
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

 

UCONN vs Purdue Over/Under Analysis

146.5 is a tough number in this game. This looks like a 72-68 type of game, but if Purdue comes out shooting as they did in the first four rounds of the tournament, the over could easily hit. I think that Purdue will try to play at a slower pace, and as long as they keep the turnovers under 12, they will control the pace, and this game goes under. I think that by playing with house money as a clear underdog, Purdue will come out firing and push this to a game played in the high 70s/low 80s. More and more people are taking the time to learn about betting on March Madness.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 146.5
  • Both teams can score quickly
  • UCONN more complete team
  • Purdue will control the pace
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

 

UCONN vs Purdue Spread Analysis

I think this spread is just about right, which makes this game even harder to beat. If these two teams played ten games, UCONN would win seven. This is a one-and-done, and the fact is that UCONN has not played a close down-to-the-wire game in the last two years at the NCAA Tournament. Everybody is crowning them, and all the pressure from the outside world is on them. How will they react if the game is close in the final minute?

Purdue is a veteran team that has been in many big games. In a lot of those games, they choked away against inferior opposition. They did come through in the clutch against Tennessee, but you still have to be concerned that Purdue runs into a roadblock they create in their own heads.

Both of these teams are hard-nosed, physical teams that like to impose their will on the opponent. When betting on this game, I ask myself which team I trust more, and the obvious answer is UCONN. I think Purdue will cover, but UCONN wins the game.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Purdue to Cover
  • These are the two best teams
  • Veteran hard-nosed teams
  • Game will be played in the low 70s
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

 

UCONN vs Purdue Player Props

Braden Smith OVER 10.5 Points

Braden Smith has had a rough past two games with poor shooting and turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Smith is to good of a player to have a third straight poor game. Smith is a tough-as-nails gamer that always gives everything. In this matchup, 10.5 points seems low. I know UCONN’s guards are very good, but I think Smith will have to have a huge game for Purdue to hang in with the Huskies. I look for Braden Smith to surpass the 10.5 points in this game easily.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Braden Smith over 10.5 points
  • Smith is due for a big game
  • Smith will control the tempo
20% up to $1000
Go to DraftKings

UCONN vs Purdue Head-to-Head

The Boilermakers lead the all-time series 4-1. Did you know you can even bet on who will be the March Madness MVP?

  • 2009 Sweet Sixteen UCONN 72-60 
  • 73-69 Purdue won in 1992 on a neutral floor in Springfield, Mass.
  • 88-73 Purdue won in West Lafayette in 1988
  • 88-70 Purdue won in Hartford in 1986
  • 51-30 Purdue won in West Lafayette in 1938

Injuries and Suspensions

UCONN Injury Report

  • No Injuries to report

Purdue Injury Report

  • No injuries

 

Conclusion

Purdue will start playing like they have nothing to lose. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer will fire, and Purdue will take an early lead. I think UCONN will slowly get back in the game, and we will see a score in the mid-to-high 30s at halftime.

I think we will watch UCONN push a lead up to ten points during the first ten minutes of the second half, and Purdue dials them back in each time. The last five minutes of this game will be decided by free throws and turnovers, and I think both will favor UCONN. Pick: UCONN 82, Purdue 77. Be sure to check out our top sports betting sites for March Madness.

 

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